CA-26: Republican Referendum on Congressional Maps Over?

Posted 2 CommentsPosted in California Citizens Redistricting Commission, Elton Gallegly

Flap’s old Congressional District CA-24 and the new one CA-26

It looks likely.
Republicans backing a voter referendum to overturn California’s new congressional maps are on the verge of dropping the effort, sources say.

One reason is a lack of enthusiasm among California’s GOP congressional delegation. One of the newest but most-prominent members of that delegation — Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy, R-Bakersfield — reportedly led those arguing that it wasn’t worth fighting the new maps.

At a recent meeting of the National Republican Campaign Committee, several strategists argued that the statewide referendum wasn’t a good use of campaign resources. And some noted that the congressional maps, drawn by a voter-approved independent commission, are more favorable to Republicans than they would have been under a Democrat-controlled gerrymander.

The effort to put the new congressional maps in front of voters was submitted last month and had been cleared for signature gathering, although no committee had been created to raise funds, according to the secretary of state’s office.

There was no formal announcement that the ballot referendum campaign for the congressional districts was abandoned. However, in such cases groups typically elect to cease signature gathering, causing the measure to fail once the deadline is passed. The referendum’s sponsor, Julie Vandermost, and its attorney did not return phone calls seeking comment.

At the recent GOP convention in Los Angeles, there were closed-door discussions about the initiative’s failure to gain traction.

Plain and simple, the supporters of the referendum (whoever they might be i.e. Gallegly, Dreier, Lungren, Miller, Royce, Bilbray) would have to pony up around $2 million or so to qualify the referendum.

Even if they could do so, and nobody has shown the interest, the California Supreme Court is no slam dunk to draw Congressional Districts that are any more favorable to the GOP, especially all of the delegation.

The referendum is a colossal waste of campaign resources. Money that the California Republican Party does NOT have.

So, back over to my Congressman Elton Gallegly who will now decide to either run and run hard in CA-26 or not.

CA-26: Will Rep. Elton Gallegly Run for Re-Election?

Posted 3 CommentsPosted in California Citizens Redistricting Commission, Elton Gallegly

Flap’s old Congressional District CA-24 and the new one CA-26

I have known Rep. Elton Gallegly for almost 30 years. While I have not discussed his re-election propsects with him, I do know that he is doing campaign events and recently moved his Congressional office from Westlake Village to Camarillo.

I say Gallegly is running, despite the referendum (which I understand the campaign for which is NOT actively gathering signatures). There is NO groomed successor and Elton is quite aware that there would be a split in the Ventura County GOP, if he retires at this time. He does not want such a split to be his legacy.

Elton is also aware that Democrat Rep. Brad Sherman WILL run in CA-26, if Elton retires, since Sherman has represented some of the Congressional District previously. The GOP would be quite content to have Sherman and Howard Berman face off against each other in a San Fernando Valley centric Congressional District.

So, sorry to California State Senator Tony Strickland and Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks. If you want CA-26, you will have to beat Elton and his $800K bank roll.

Here is Timm Herdt’s analysis of the race.

Here are the demographics of the new CA-26 Congressional District.

And, how the CA-26 performed in previous elections.

California Congressional Districts NOT All Bad for Republican Party

Posted Posted in California Citizens Redistricting Commission, California Republican Party

Flap’s old Congressional District CA-24 and the new one CA-26

I have to agree with Republican political operative and consultant Rob Stutzman.
What will it take to win these competitive seats? We will have to do the hard work of becoming a more competitive party. We have to expand our message to Latinos and field candidates who can compete in marginal districts. These new maps will finally force to the surface Republican candidates in California who can compete and win in swing districts.

Since 1992, Republican voter registration has fallen by 8 percent. Recently released Field Poll data make the point even clearer. At the same time, our party message is not resonating with younger voters as the GOP is a graying electorate. More than half of current California Republican voters are over the age of 50, up from 40 percent in 1992.

Republican registration in the Latino community has nearly stagnated since 1992, growing only one percent at a time when the state’s Hispanic voters doubled during that time from 10 percent to 22 percent.

In a state that has dipped to only 31 percent GOP registration, providing more opportunities to be competitive is a positive development. We have been slowly withering to a darker shade of blue here, but shedding the gerrymander of the past decade gives us the chance to adapt and learn to win again.

The California Congressional redistricting is probably as fair as you are going to achieve vis a vis population and federal voting rights demographics.

I understand that, although a referendum has been approved for signature circulation to overturn the California Citizen Redistricting Commission’s Congressional District plan that no actual signatures are being solicited.

Yes, there will be few long time GOP Congressmen who will be forced either into retirement or to run in districts where there will actually be a contested race.

Isn’t that why we have elections?

California Republicans will be far better to accept the California Citizen Redistricting Commission’s and use any money raised for the referendum in party building activities.

Update: Americans for Tax Reform Call AB 155 a Pledge Violation; California Republican State Senators to Support Internet Sales Taxes?

Posted Posted in Amazon Tax, California Citizens Redistricting Commission, California Republican Party, California State Senate, Internet Sales Taxes

I have a new post up over at Flap’s California Blog on the Flap.

Go here and read which California State Senators might FLIP.

Kind of interesting that the California Republican Party is asking Republican donors to support a referendum to overturn the California Citizen’s Redistricting Commission’s State Senate Redistricting Maps and these Senators FLIP to support a Democratic position anyway.

I mean, why bother, when all of the Republicans become RINOS (Republican in Name Only)?

By the way, the legislation which will likely be heard in the California State Senate tomorrow, requires three (3) Republican Senators to FLIP (NB: none voted for the Amazon Tax when it first came through the California Legislature).

California Republican State Senators to Support Internet Sales Taxes?

Posted Posted in Amazon Tax, California Citizens Redistricting Commission, California Republican Party, California State Senate, Internet Sales Taxes

I have a new post up over at Flap’s California Blog on the Flap.

Go here and read which California State Senators might FLIP.

Kind of interesting that the California Republican Party is asking Republican donors to support a referendum to overturn the California Citizen’s Redistricting Commission’s State Senate Redistricting Maps and these Senators FLIP to support a Democratic position anyway.

I mean, why bother, when all of the Republicans become RINOS (Republican in Name Only)?

By the way, the legislation which will likely be heard in the California State Senate tomorrow, requires three (3) Republican Senators to FLIP (NB: none voted for the Amazon Tax when it first came through the California Legislature).

Flap’s California Morning Collection: August 18, 2011

Posted 1 CommentPosted in California Citizens Redistricting Commission, California State Senate, David Cruz Thayne, Elton Gallegly, Flap's California Morning Collection, Jerry Brown

A morning collection of links and comments about my home, California.

Westlake Village man announces plans to run for new 26th Congressional District

David Cruz Thayne, a former professional tennis player from Westlake Village, on Wednesday became the second Democrat to announce plans to run in the newly drawn 26th Congressional District, which covers most of Ventura County.

Thayne, 40, is a tennis coach and the producer of two tennis-themed documentary films. He joins Moorpark City Councilman David Pollock as the only announced candidates in a district that is expected to attract considerable national attention. It is home to no incumbent and the partisan leanings of its voters are such that the candidates in last fall’s governor’s race were separated by only 1 percentage point.

The district includes all of Ventura County except for most of the city of Simi Valley and a small slice of the city of Ventura. The city of Westlake Village is the only area of Los Angeles County in the district.

It is likely the district in which incumbent Rep. Elton Gallegly, R-Simi Valley, will run if he chooses to seek re-election. Although his home is a few blocks outside the district boundary, Gallegly has represented much of the area for the last two decades.

The incumbent congressman has made no announcement about his plans for 2012.

California governor not interested in Prop 13 reforms

Gov. Jerry Brown on Wednesday turned down a challenge from the mayor of Los Angeles to reform Proposition 13, saying he would prefer to focus his attention on bringing financial stability to California.

Brown was responding to comments by Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who called on the governor and state lawmakers to think big in solving California’s ongoing fiscal problems. The mayor suggested the Prop 13 property tax cap be lifted for businesses and left in place for homeowners.

Prop 13, however, is seen as untouchable by many politicians in the state because it is so popular with the electorate.

During a speech Tuesday before the Sacramento Press Club, Villaraigosa urged the governor to convene a commission on tax reform and estimated that gradually lifting the Prop 13 cap for businesses could raise between $2.1 billion and $8 billion a year money the state could invest in education and lower property taxes for homeowners.

Brown rejected the idea after making a luncheon address at Maddy Institute in Fresno.

“I’m not planning to join (Villaraigosa), but I certainly welcome the debate,” Brown said. “I will focus my attention on ensuring financial stability and making the state more efficient.”

Brown did not offer specifics beyond saying he plans to support a ballot initiative next year for new revenue. He also said jobs would come by generating confidence that California is on stable footing.

One way he might do that is through infrastructure investment.

Republicans take first step toward overturning new Senate districts

A group of Republicans has taken the first step toward putting a referendum on the ballot that they hope will lead to the overturning of new Senate districts drawn by a state panel.

Republican attorney Charles Bell asked the state attorney general in writing to prepare the title and summary of the referendum so that a petition drive can begin to qualify the measure for the ballot. The campaign needs to collect more than 504,000 signatures in 90 days.

“The belief is that at least a number of the districts were not drawn in accordance with the [federal] Voting Rights Act and some provisions of the state Constitution concerning compactness and avoiding county splits,” said Bell, who is an attorney for the California Republican Party and the new campaign committee Fairness and Accountability in Redistricting.

Bell said Wednesday he submitted the request on behalf of the campaign committee, which includes Orange County businesswoman Julie Vandermost. The referendum drive is being supported by the state party as well as the Senate Republican Caucus.

Common Cause blasts referendum targeting new Senate districts

The head of California Common Cause said Wednesday that a Republican-backed referendum drive to overturn new Senate districts is the work of “partisan insiders” and is attacking a plan that reflects the will of voters who approved an independent redistricting process.

“This referendum is motivated by pure party politics, funded by incumbents who did not get the safe districts that they wanted,” said Kathay Feng, executive director of California Common Cause.

Her organization was one of several that supported a 2008 ballot measure that created the 14-member Citizens Redistricting Commission, taking the job of redrawing legislative districts away from lawmakers.

A referendum drive supported by the California Republican Party and Senate Republican Caucus has filed papers required before groups can begin collecting signatures to put the new districts before the voters.

Enjoy your morning!