President 2012 Tennessee Poll Watch: Obama Leads Palin By 5 Points
Tennesseans are lukewarm on President Barack Obama, but they prefer him slightly to former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin in a hypothetical 2012 matchup, a Vanderbilt University poll has found.
A majority of Tennesseans disapprove of Obama’s job performance, even as his popularity increased nationwide in the wake of the Arizona shootings in early January.
But Obama still holds a nearly 5-percentage-point edge over Palin, one of the top candidates for the Republican presidential nomination, among the 710 Tennesseans polled by Vanderbilt’s Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions.
Sarah Palin has not shown any polling strength lately – even in red states.
Palin’s 31 point deficit in California would be the first time a Republican candidate lost the state by more than 30 points since Alf Landon went down in Franklin D. Roosevelt’s first reelection in 1936. It’s been a week of potential history making for Palin in our polls. She trailed Obama by 8 points in South Dakota, which would make her the first Republican to lose that state since 1964. She trailed him by 6 points in South Carolina, which would mark the first Democratic win there since 1976. She trailed him by 8 in Arizona, which Democrats have only won once since 1948 and certainly not by that kind of margin. And although she led by a point in Nebraska she’d be perilously close to being the first Republican to lose that state since 1964 even though Democrats haven’t come within 15 points of winning statewide since Barry Goldwater.
Although this poll did not ask about other possible Republican candidates, I can see a theme for Romney and any other candidates to use against Palin – she can be nominated but she cannot beat Obama. This will be a big hurdle for her as the television ads start to fly in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
I continue with my belief that Palin will wait until mid-April or so, certainly before the May 2nd NBC/Politico debate, and decide NOT to run.
Tennessee will be safely in the red column for President in 2012 as long as Sarah Palin is not the nominee.