• Barbara Boxer,  Carly Fiorina

    CA-Sen: Senator Barbara Boxer Wins Re-Election Over Carly Fiorina

    California Republican U.S. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina talks to volunteers and supporters at California GOP election night headquarters in Irvine, California last night

    It wasn’t a pretty loss for Carly Fiorina where polls had the race much closer than the 9-10 point Boxer victory.

    After monitoring results overnight, Republican Senate candidate Carly Fiorina conceded defeat Wednesday morning after her hard-fought race with Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, stating that she was proud of every moment of her campaign.

    Speaking to reporters and a small group of supporters with her husband at her headquarters in Irvine, the former Hewlett-Packard chief executive said the experience had been a privilege and that she had been touched by every person she met across California. She said she ran because she was concerned that attaining the American dream had become too hard for too many people and that she was still worried about out-of-control spending in Washington.

    “We had an exceptional campaign,” Fiorina said. “In the end we could not overcome the registration that Democrats have, and in particular in L.A. County.”

    Demographics played a role (look at the California map) but so did the relentless negative advertising by Barbara Boxer who portrayed Carly Fiorina as a greedy corporate executive who laid employees off by shipping their jobs offshore and enriched herself at the same time. The late in the campaign ads which featured outsourced Hewlett-Packard employees was devastating to Fiorina – particularly in populous Los Angeles County where the ads played ubiquitously in the last two weeks of the campaign.

    I was at the Irvine, California Fiorina headquarters yesterday afternoon through the early morning hours. Here are some photos which I snapped:

    Radio talk show host of Salem Communications Dennis Prager

    California Board of Equalization member Michelle Steel being interviewed

    Liz Mair
    , Flap and Dan Blatt

    So, one has to consider whether it was worth the Carly Fiorina effort to challenge Barbara Boxer in “deep blue” California, raise, plus spend, the millions of dollars in campaign cash and come out with a loss that is about what Matt Fong experienced in 1998.

    Somehow I think it was, since Boxer herself acknowledged that this race was “the toughest and roughest campaign of my life.” Plus, Boxer had to utilize the full resurces of her incumbency to fight back Fiorina, including multiple President Obama fundraising events. Boxer spent $ millions which could have been redistributed to other states for other Democrat campaigns. And, she spent like a drunken sailor on television ads the last month of the campaign.

    But, with this said, California Democrats who have a massive registration advantage, pretty much swept the California election board and shellacked the GOP – from Jerry Brown’s election as Governor to Loretta Sanchez’s re-election to the House. Even GOP favorite California Attorney General candidate Steve Cooley is in a close race which will be decided by absentee ballots (counted over the next few weeks).

    I doubt whether the national GOP will place as many resources into California to win a statewide race (such as Senator Diane Feinstein’s re-election in two years) anytime soon – or my lifetime.

    California is the new “Solid Blue” Massachusetts, New York or Maryland.

  • Barbara Boxer,  Carly Fiorina,  Maxine Waters

    CA-Sen: OOPS Barbara Boxer and Maxine Waters Did It Again

    7c4e78a62d4740a7ac9abc1 CA Sen: Rep. Maxine Waters Refunds Sen. Barbara Boxer Campaign Cash   Trying to Clean Up Her Act Prior to Ethics Trial

    California U.S. Senate Barbara Boxer and Congresswoman Maxine Waters in July 2010

    You remember the FLAP?

    This will make for some interesting political theater after the GOP takes over the House and Maxine Waters gets to face her ethics trial.

    As the Chair of the Senate Ethics Committee, and a 28-year inhabitant of Washington, DC, locked in a surprisingly tight race for re-election, one might expect Barbara Boxer to avoid controversial figures like the plague.  But the challenges facing Boxer as she seeks to win a fourth term in the U.S. Senate on Tuesday apparently haven’t stopped her from buying the endorsement of her close friend, embattled Rep. Maxine Waters, once again.  Below the fold are images of the pages of Waters’ 2010 general election “slate mailer” obtained by Big Government on Saturday, which showcases her endorsement.  On page three of the mailer itself, Boxer is prominently recommended by Waters.

    Here is some of the endorsement mailer:

    I am looking forward to see both Maxine Water’s and Barbara Boxer’s FEC report on the expenditure after the election.

    You know – follow the money.

    Let’s hope that on the Barbara Boxer side it becomes a moot exercise with the election of Carly Fiorina. In any case, Maxine Waters is going to have some ethics problems.

  • Barbara Boxer,  Carly Fiorina

    CA-Sen Poll Watch: Carly Fiorina Within Reach of Barbara Boxer?

    I would say yes. 

    In fact, Real Clear Politics has moved the California Senate race to toss-up over the weekend from leans Democrat.

    Let’s look at the last few polls with Senator Barbara Boxer’s supposed insurmountable lead disappearing into the margin of error. Remember in the latest PPP poll which is a Democrat sponsored poll, Boxer was ahead by 9 points just one week ago.

    The California polls are skewing the number of Democrats Vs. Republicans Vs. Decline to State voters. They really have NO idea who will turn out and actually vote in such a large state.

    I think Carly Fiorina, despite the scathing negative TV ads, will ultimately win this race by 3 points. Boxer has done a poor job for California, the economy here sucks and voters will punish her by sending her to retirement.

  • Barbara Boxer,  Carly Fiorina

    CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina Does a Little Trick or Treat on Barbara Boxer

    Carly Fiorina, who is running as a republican for California Senate, campaigns at the Sugar Shack candy store in Menlo Park, Calif., Friday, Oct. 29, 2010

    Well, not really – more  like a trick but Carly is back on the trail and hoping for a good turnout on Tuesday in this tight Senate race.

    Standing in a Halloween-decorated Menlo Park candy store Friday amid a mad scientist display, a jar of brains and big fuzzy spiders, Republican Senate candidate Carly Fiorina portrayed Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer as the real goblin in this race.

    “No, Barbara Boxer, the stimulus bill hasn’t worked,” said Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO, during a short visit to the Sugar Shack to highlight the importance of women-owned small businesses. “No, your policies of bailing, borrowing, spending, taxing are not working either.”

    Asked about a new Field Poll that shows her trailing Boxer 49 percent to 41 percent — and among women by 15 points — Fiorina called the statewide poll “an outlier” compared to several others that show the race is “very, very tight” and “very, very winnable.”

    Fiorina argued that if Boxer weren’t in trouble, President Barack Obama, first lady Michelle Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and Biden’s wife Jill wouldn’t be making so many trips to California to rally voters. Even singer Stevie Wonder and basketball great Magic Johnson have jumped on the Boxer bandwagon, she said.

    “(Boxer) continues to say that taxing and spending and regulating and borrowing are creating jobs, when the facts are clear — they’re not, they’re destroying jobs in this great state,” Fiorina said.

  • Barbara Boxer,  Carly Fiorina

    CA-Sen Poll Watch: Barbara Boxer 49% Carly Fiorina 46% MOE +/- 4%

    Well, the race is still within the margin of error and the Dems cannot really claim this race as won.

    Incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer still holds a small lead over Republican Carly Fiorina in California’s U.S. Senate race, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports survey of Likely Voters in the state.

    Boxer, who is seeking a fourth six-year term, now earns 49% support to Fiorina’s 46%. Two percent (2%) prefer another candidate, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.

    Boxer posted a 48% to 46% lead a week ago. In spite of her powers as an incumbent and California’s strong Democratic leanings, Boxer’s been struggling to widen the gap all year. She’s held a small lead in every survey but one since February with 42% to 49% of the vote. Fiorina, a former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, has earned 38% to 47% support in those same surveys.

    Exit question: Will the national GOP wave and GOTV ground operation propel Carly Fiorina to victory next Tuesday?

  • Carly Fiorina

    CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina to Be Released from Hospital Today

    carlyspeaking CA Sen: Update on Carly Fiorinas Health

    California Republican U.S. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina

    As I surmised last night, Carly will be back on the campaign trail tomorrow.

    From the press release:

    U.S. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina’s Chief of Staff Deborah Bowker today issued the following statement:

    “Since she was admitted to the hospital yesterday morning, Carly has been successfully treated for the infection she had as a result of reconstructive surgery following her victory over breast cancer. This morning, her doctors gave her the good news that she will be released from the hospital today and can resume her busy campaign schedule tomorrow. Carly is grateful for the outpouring of well wishes and prayers from so many Californians. She is excited to get back on the campaign trail and to move forward toward a triumph over Barbara Boxer next Tuesday.”

  • Barbara Boxer,  Carly Fiorina

    CA-Sen: Is Barbara Boxer Surging in the Polls?

    Unlikely, when you look at the sampling methods of the recent polls in a very large state as is California.

    If you follow California Senate polling closely, you have to be feeling a little bit nauseated from the roller coaster ride you’ve been on.  Some polls are showing Senator Barbara Boxer with a comfortable 9-point lead and above 50 percent, while others are showing a much closer race.  One Republican pollster even shows Fiorina ahead.

    What is going on here?  The answer is something I’ve discussed before:  Pollsters are having a devil of a time agreeing on what the electorate is going to look like

    This chart above has changed a bit with the latest Survey USA poll having been released overnight. It is here. Their current breakdown is D:42%, R:34%, I:21%.

    As you can see, the ratio of Democrats to Republican in the sample goes hand-in-glove with the size of Boxer’s edge.  More Democrats equals more Boxer votes.  In fact, the adjusted r-square is pretty nice — about .74.  These polls’ internals actually don’t disagree that much — most of them have both candidates losing about 10 percent of their respective bases, while Fiorina has a double-digit edge among independents.

    So who is right?  Well, that’s the frustrating thing — we can’t definitively say.  But we can get some sense of history here.  The following table shows the exit poll results for 2008, 2006 and 2004, as well as the present early voting numbers:

    As you can see, the pollsters showing a comfortable Boxer lead are showing electorates that are similar to 2008.  On the other hand, the pollsters who are showing a tight race see an electorate more like 2004 or 2006.

    So, what does the race and polling come down to with less than a week to go?

    As, I have said before, it comes down to turn out – who actually shows up to vote on election day. If the Republicans are motivated and all come out to vote for Carly Fiorina, Fiorina wins the independent minded voter who shows up and/or the Democratic base of ethnic voters and Labor fail to show, even a little – Fiorina wins.

    If the Democrats all show up to vote, Boxer wins. After all, it is a numbers game and the Democrats far and away out number the Republicans.

    The GOTV (Get Out the Vote) ground operations of the California GOP may very well decide this race.

  • Carly Fiorina

    CA-Sen Video: Carly Fiorina Launches New Ad: “Truthiness”

    The latest web ad from the Carly Fiorina campaign for California U.S. Senate

    From the press release:

    The Carly for California campaign today launched a new Web video titled “Truthiness” highlighting the many outlandish and unfounded claims Barbara Boxer has peddled to voters on the campaign trail in an ongoing attempt to hide the truth about her nearly three decades of failure in Washington.

    “Barbara Boxer is so desperate to save the only job she cares about – her own – she has resorted to blatant fabrications and extreme distortions of the truth,” said Carly for California Press Secretary Andrea Saul. “At a time when 2.2 million Californians are unemployed, voters aren’t looking for typical political ‘truthiness’ or empty election-year rhetoric from a career politician. Carly Fiorina, a proven leader and political outsider, won’t shirk from being held accountable or delivering results; she will go to Washington to work not for an ideology, but rather to improve the lives of the people of this state.”

    Of course, what everyone is asking this morning, is when will Carly leave the hospital and resume campaigning.

    I’ll post or tweet the information as soon as I have it.

  • Carly Fiorina

    CA-Sen: Update on Carly Fiorina’s Health

    California Republican U.S. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina

    From the press release:

    U.S. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina’s Chief of Staff Deborah Bowker today issued the following statement:

    “Carly has received treatment for the infection related to the reconstructive surgery she underwent in July after her winning battle with breast cancer. The doctors tending to her care will observe her overnight and are taking every precaution to ensure that she can return to her busy campaign schedule. Carly is thankful for all of the prayers and encouragement she has received today from family, friends and supporters. She is anxious to get back on the campaign trail later this week and is very much looking forward to a victory on November 2.”

    In talking to various folks, my bet is that Carly is back on the campaign trail no later than tomorrow afternoon or Thursday morning. 

    Wishing her the best and the most speedy recovery – My prayers are with you, Carly.