The Morning Flap: November 14, 2012

Posted 1 CommentPosted in Pinboard Links, The Morning Flap

Secession Movement Explodes

These are my links for November 13th through November 14th:

  • Don’t cry now – The GOP Will Have a Better Candidate in 2016– Yes, it’s all sad — and grim, and depressing — but is Election 2012 truly the end of the GOP universe? Perhaps. But before giving way to unseemly hysterics, here are some thoughts to peruse:* Timing is everything: This year, the Republicans needed new and appealing young talents to take on Obama, and that, as it happened, was just what they had. The upside was that in 2009 and 2010 they had a crop of new stars, all born to run on a national ticket. The downside was that they would be ready to start running in 2014 at the earliest. And so the most crucial of all nominations would go to one of a number of has-beens or retreads, whose experience was either old or irrelevant, and whose talent at best underwhelmed.Mitt Romney, the best, left office six years ago, and had a liberal past, a financial career that had netted him millions, and, as the son of another ex-governor, seemed the image of white and upper-class privilege, minus the military heroics, medical problems, or personal tragedies that humanized the Roosevelt cousins, the Kennedy brothers and the elder George Bush.

    Near the end, Romney became a good candidate, but he was always less than a good politician; a speaker in tongues that were not his first language, and a technocrat in a profession in which visionaries tend to win the big prize. His loss deprives the country of an effective executive, but it allows the next generation of the GOP, which would have been pushed aside for eight years or more if he had triumphed, to step forward now and make over the party — a moment that can’t come soon enough.

    * The country has changed, but the next Republican ticket will have at least one, and possibly two, brownish-skinned children of immigrants, with inspiring stories of rising from nowhere to live the American dream. He and/or she (and “she” must be seen as a real possibility) will never have fired hundreds of people, will not be rich, will not be dogged by multiple changes on issues, will understand modern conservatism from having run and won on it, and also will be a career politician, unlikely to make the unforced verbal errors that haunted this campaign just ended. There are few such “diverse” stars in the Democrats’ stable. Hillary Clinton, if she runs in 2016, will be 69, and unlikely to get the nation’s young in a tizzy. In the next cycle, the dynamic that worked this year in the Democrats’ favor — race, youth and gender — may be turned on its head.

  • White House ‘secede’ petitions reach 660,000 signatures, 50-state participation– Less than a week after a New Orleans suburbanite petitioned the White House to allow Louisiana to secede from the United States, petitions from seven states have collected enough signatures to trigger a promised review from the Obama administration.By 6:00 a.m. EST Wednesday, more than 675,000 digital signatures appeared on 69 separate secession petitions covering all 50 states, according to a Daily Caller analysis of requests lodged with the White House’s “We the People” online petition system.A petition from Vermont, where talk of secession is a regular feature of political life, was the final entry.

    Petitions from Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, Tennessee and Texas residents have accrued at least 25,000 signatures, the number the Obama administration says it will reward with a staff review of online proposals.

    The Texas petition leads all others by a wide margin. Shortly before 9:00 a.m. EST Wednesday, it had attracted 94,700 signatures.

    But a spokesperson for Gov. Rick Perry said Tuesday afternoon that he does not support the idea of his state striking out on its own. “Gov. Perry believes in the greatness of our Union and nothing should be done to change it. But he also shares the frustrations many Americans have with our federal government,” according to a statement from the governor’s office.

    A backlash Monday night saw requests filed with the White House to strip citizenship rights from Americans who signed petitions to help states secede.

  • Krauthammer: White House ‘Held Affair Over Petraeus’s Head’ For Favorable Testimony On Benghazi– Syndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer on Tuesday said the White House used David Petraeus’s affair to get the CIA director to give testimony about the attacks on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, that was in line with the administration’s position on the matter.Appearing on Fox News’s Special Report, Krauthammer said, “The sword was lowered on Election Day”
  • Greetings from the Single-Party State of California! – Dental Care for the Poor– Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg is already putting his wish list together. Note the sheer lack of much to do with fiscal solvency:Steinberg talked of using the supermajority to reinvest in public schools and colleges, restore adult dental care for the poor, and alter the initiative process in a way that makes it harder for millionaires to impose their will by spending vast sums qualifying a measure for the ballot.The Senate leader said he might be willing to consider overhauling the state’s income tax structure to lower rates but broaden the base, and to consider a constitutional amendment laying the groundwork for same-sex marriage.

    Adult dental care for the poor! Exactly what we need with a cash deficit somewhere around $20 billion, according to the state controller.

    There are two races in Orange County and Sacramento County that are very close, and the GOP is not willing to concede as yet. There is a possibility that the ability to keep the Democratic legislature from overruling the Democratic governor rests in the hands of two Republicans.

  • Hooray! Bankrupt California Is Now a One-Party State!– I might dislike the state GOP even more than Harold Meyerson does, but there are some other numbers that prevent me from celebrating what Meyerson hails as “the political transformation of California.” For instance:The last Republican turned off the lights* Democrats have controlled all eight statewide executive offices since 2011, for only the second time since the 19th century.* Democrats have a 28-12 edge in the state Senate, tied for its largest advantage since the 19th century. The party has held a majority there since the late 1950s.

    * Democrats have a 54-26 edge in the state Assembly, its largest advantage since 1978. The party has run the Assembly since 1997.

    * California has been represented in the U.S. Senate by Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer for two decades.

    * That 38-15 congressional delegation advantage, if it indeed holds, will be by far the largest spread in state history, and almost the largest percentage advantage as well (there was that 3-1 moment in the 1870s). Republicans last held more California congressional seats than Democrats in the late 1950s.

    So what has all this enlightened Democratic governance produced? Here’s one way of looking at it: The last month that California had an unemployment rate of less than 10% was January 2009. The last month its unemployment was lower than the national rate was April 1990. The 2010 Census marked the first time California didn’t gain a seat in the House of Representatives since basically ever. For the first time since the Gold Rush, a majority of California residents were born in the state. The ultimate migration-magnet in a nation of immigrants is just no longer so, however strange that may be to accept.

  • California to GOP: Adios– here are many ways to illustrate the descent of the California Republican Party into oblivion. A starting point is the demographic breakdown of the members of Congress elected last week in the state.Assuming the leaders in the few remaining close races hold their leads, there will be 38 Democrats and 15 Republicans representing California in Congress come January. Of those 38 Democrats, 18 are women, nine are Latinos, five are Asian Americans, three are African Americans, four are Jews and at least one is gay. Just 12 are white men. Of the 15 Republicans, on the other hand, all are white men — not a woman, let alone a member of a racial minority or a Jew, among them.The composition of the state’s new Democratic congressional delegation merely reflects the state’s demographic changes. Latinos (72% of whom backed Obama) were 23% of the California electorate in 2012, up from 18% in 2008. The share of Asian voters (who voted for Obama at a 79% rate) doubled, from 6% to 12%, between those two elections. Voters under 30 increased their share of state ballots cast from 20% in 2008 to 27% in 2012, and backed Obama at a 71% rate. The state’s proportion of white voters, meanwhile, fell from 65% in 2004 to 63% in 2008 to just 55% last week.

    More sentient Republicans now say the party needs to modify its position on immigration. But a deeper look into the politics of the increasingly young and multicolored electorate suggests that the GOP is estranged from this new America on more issues than just immigration. The exit polling on Proposition 30, the tax hike on the wealthy promoted by Gov. Jerry Brown to keep the state’s schools and universities from further disastrous budget cuts, shows key elements of the Democrats’ new majority consigning the old Howard-Jarvis-no-tax-hike California to history’s dustbin. Voters under 30 supported Proposition 30 at a 67% rate, and Asian Americans gave it 61% support.

  • Majority Supports Path to Citizenship; Greater Division on Other Social Issues – ABC News– Most Americans support a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, an issue that may be high on the agenda of newly re-elected President Obama and the 113th Congress, given the increased importance of nonwhites – including Hispanic voters – in the nation’s political equation.On two other prominent social issues in last week’s voting, a bare majority continues to support legalizing gay marriage, and this ABC News/Washington Post poll finds a new high, 48 percent, in support for legalizing small amounts of marijuana for personal use.A PATH – Fifty-seven percent of Americans in this survey, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, support a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, with 39 percent opposed. That’s virtually identical to results of a similar question last asked in mid-2010, with support up from its earlier levels, as low as 49 percent in late 2007.

    Debate on the issue was heightened by restrictive immigration policies enacted in Arizona in 2010 and Alabama in 2011, and, in June, when Obama moved in another direction, granting immunity from deportation to many undocumented immigrants who arrived in the country as children.

    Hispanics accounted for 10 percent of voters in Tuesday’s presidential election, reaching double-digits for the first time, and Obama won them by 71-27 percent, improving on his 2008 margin in this group. In the exit poll, voters overall, by more than 2-1, said illegal immigrants working here should be offered a chance to apply for legal status rather than being deported.

    In this survey, support for a path to citizenship peaks at 82 percent among Hispanics, 71 percent among Democrats and liberals alike and 69 percent among young adults, all key Obama groups. Support’s at 68 percent among nonwhites overall, compared with 51 percent among non-Hispanic whites. Obama lost white voters by 20 points last week, but won nonwhites — who accounted for a record 28 percent of the electorate – by 61 points. It was a record racial gap.

  • The Fiscal Cliff: Will Obama and Congress Cut a Budget Deal?– Five people will gather Friday inside the White House to begin making decisions that could affect the pocketbooks of 315 million Americans.When President Obama sits down with the Republican and Democratic leaders of Congress, only 46 days will remain before the nation risks plunging over the “fiscal cliff” — a pileup of scheduled tax increases and spending cuts that threaten to drain $560 billion out of the economy next year and derail the recovery.It will be high-stakes poker, holding the promise of great rewards for an economic rebound if Washington succeeds and the peril of another recession if it fails.

    Promise or peril, some Americans are going to feel the pinch. Should Obama get his way, those with annual incomes above $250,000 will face higher tax bills. If Republicans come out on top, tax rates and defense spending will remain the same, but social programs will face budget cuts.

    A compromise portends discomfort, most likely in the form of reduced paychecks, jobless benefits and business tax breaks. And a stalemate means higher taxes and reduced federal spending across the board, including at the Pentagon.

  • Hard questions await Obama at news conference– This is not what the White House wanted for President Barack Obama’s first news conference of his second term.He won’t be able to dwell much on his stronger-than-expected victory or even press his agenda for the next four years. Instead, he’ll be diverted by a Washington sex scandal.
  • Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-11-13 – Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-11-13
  • Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-11-13 – Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-11-13 #tcot
  • for-2012-11-13&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter – My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-11-13
  • Petraeus and Broadwell attempted to conceal affair using Gmail drafts | The Verge – RT @verge: Petraeus and Broadwell attempted to conceal affair using Gmail drafts
  • Michael Ramirez: Free Stuff is Not Overrated – Flap’s Blog – Michael Ramirez: Free Stuff is Not Overrated #tcot
  • Day By Day November 13, 2012 – Dive, Dive! – Flap’s Blog – Day By Day November 13, 2012 – Dive, Dive! #tcot
  • Broad Concern about ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Consequences | Pew Research Center for the People and the Press – Pew Poll: Broad Concern about ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Consequences – Blame Congressional GOP More #tcot
  • Video – Austan Goolsbee says that there is no way the fiscal cliff can be avoided. – WSJ.com – RT @WSJ: Can the fiscal cliff be avoided? Here’s what three of the top economic professors in the U.S. think: VIDEO
  • Pew Poll: Broad Concern about ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Consequences – Blame Congressional GOP More– As the president and congressional leaders begin negotiations to avoid the “fiscal cliff” deadline at the end of the year, there is widespread public concern about the possible financial consequences. More say the automatic spending cuts and tax increases scheduled to take effect in January would have a major effect on the U.S. economy than on their own finances. But nearly identical majorities say the effect of the changes would be mostly negative for the economy (62%) and their personal financial situation (60%).The public is skeptical that President Obama and congressional Republicans will reach an agreement by the end of the year to avoid the fiscal cliff. About half (51%) say the two sides will not reach an agreement, while just 38% say they will. If no deal is reached, more say that congressional Republicans would be more to blame than President Obama (53% vs. 29%).
  • Pew Poll: Hispanic Household Wealth Fell by 66% from 2005 to 2009– Median household wealth among Hispanics fell from $18,359 in 2005 to $6,325 in 2009. The percentage drop—66%—was the largest among all racial and ethnic groups, according to a new report by the Pew Research Center’s Social & Demographic Trends project. During the same period, median household wealth declined 53% among black households and 16% among white households.The Pew Research report provides the first look at how the Great Recession impacted household wealth. It finds that plummeting house values were the principal cause of the erosion in wealth among all groups. However, because Hispanics derived nearly two-thirds of their net worth in 2005 from home equity and a disproportionate share reside in states that were in the vanguard of the housing meltdown, Hispanics were hit hardest by the housing market downturn.The Pew Research analysis also finds that the median wealth of white households is 18 times that of Hispanic households and 20 times that of black households. These lopsided wealth ratios are the largest in the quarter century since the government first published such data, and roughly twice the size of the ratios that had prevailed between these three groups for the two decades prior to the Great Recession.
  • Public Opinion Strategies: Three Keys From the Exit Polls– Given the demographics of the 2008 and 2012 elections, the Republican Party is in danger of becoming the “Win In Off Years Only Party” unless we make a full-throated improvement with Hispanic voters. And, we have to admit it is us, not them.Want proof? That’s easy – as of this writing, Mitt Romney is getting 48.7% of the vote, while House Republicans are getting 48.4% of the vote. The House majority for 2014 (and beyond) is not built on winning the vote, but on fabulous drawing of the congressional district lines. So even the battleground we won on (congressional) was tilted for us, which we may not be able to count on in ten years.
  • Republican polling firm explains what went wrong– On Election Day, Mitt Romney had a victory speech prepared — but not a concession. He believed he would win. His confidence was based in part on internal polls showing an electorate that favored Republicans. Many Republican Senate candidates also got false optimism from their numbers.In a memo, the firm of Romney pollster Neil Newhouse, Public Opinion Strategies, explains its mistakes and suggests how to fix them going forward.As a part of the Republican polling community, our prescription includes doing at least one-third of the interviews with cell phone respondents going forward, adjusting as required, ensuring that we include enough younger voters in our sampling, and (in many cases) polling until the final weekend of the campaign. This is going to cost campaigns and organizations more money on polling, but it is necessary to have a more accurate representation of the electorate.
  • President 2012: Gallup defends itself– Gallup’s Frank Newport posted a memo online defending the organization’s 2012 polling, which gave Mitt Romney the lead in the presidential race from mid-October to the end of the month.Newport notes that the final pre-election Gallup poll, taken after a hiatus due to Hurricane Sandy, showed a dead heat, not so far off the final popular vote results.“In the end, Gallup’s national popular vote estimate was that the popular vote was too close to call, a statistical tie — 50% for Mitt Romney, 49% for Barack Obama,” Newport wrote. “When the dust settled, Romney got 48% of the popular vote and Obama received 50%, meaning that Gallup’s percentage-point estimate was within two percentage points for Romney and within one point for Obama.” (Further counting has boosted Obama’s total closer to 51 percent.)

    However, he added, “it is clear that voting today is subject to new pushes and pulls” and that changes to the pollsters’ likely voting model might be necessary.

    Newport also takes what appears to be a veiled shot at The New York Times’s Nate Silver, who argued that a mid-October Gallup poll showing Romney ahead was likely wrong.

    “It’s not easy nor cheap to conduct traditional random sample polls,” Newport writes. “It’s much easier, cheaper, and mostly less risky to focus on aggregating and analyzing others’ polls.”

  • Upcoming 5K,10K and Other Ventura County Area Running and Fitness Events! – Welcome! – Conejo Valley Guide – RT @ConejoJoe: Upcoming Ventura County area 5Ks, 10Ks and other running events
  • 2012 Malibu Marathon Yesterday Was My 30th Marathon – Marathon Training Blog – Conejo Valley Guide – Congratulations Joe – see you at LA! RT @ConejoJoe: My 30th marathon on Sunday was not my best one but happy to finish
  • Kathy Sullivan: For NH Republicans, some advice from the winning side | New Hampshire OPINION02 – RT @CPHeinze: Former New Hampshire Dem party chair gives state GOP some post-election advice: “Retire John H. Sununu.”
  • Who’s who in the Gen. Petraeus scandal – Photos – 1 of 5 – POLITICO.com – RT @politico: PHOTOS: Who’s who in the Gen. Petraeus scandal:
  • Flap’s Dentistry Blog: Fake California Dentist Esteban Campos Pleads Guilty – Fake California Dentist Esteban Campos Pleads Guilty
  • 53% Favor Bush Tax Cuts For All But The Wealthy – Rasmussen Reports™ – Boehneer will cave – earlier the better RT @RasmussenPoll: 53% Favor #Bush Tax Cuts For All But The Wealthy… #taxcuts
  • The Morning Flap: November 13, 2012 – Flap’s Blog – The Morning Flap: November 13, 2012 #tcot

The Morning Flap: November 13, 2012

Posted Posted in Pinboard Links, The Morning Flap

The David Petraeus Sex ScandalThese are my links for November 9th through November 13th:

  • David Petraeus sex scandal: FBI agent who began probing disgraced spy chief allegedly sent shirtless photos of himself to whistleblower Jill Kelley– David Petraeus’stunning downfall took another salacious turn Monday as it was revealed the FBI agent who began investigating the disgraced spy chief allegedly sent shirtless photos of himself to the woman who sparked the probe.The unnamed agent was a friend of Jill Kelley, the raven-haired knockout whom Petraeus biographer Paula Broadwell jealously suspected of having the hots for the former CIA director, The Wall Street Journal reported.Broadwell bombarded Kelley with anonymous, threatening emails accusing her of having a relationship with the spy chief, with whom she had previously had an extramarital affair. In one email, Broadwell “claimed to have watched Ms. Kelley touching ‘him’ provocatively underneath a table,” according to the paper.The get-away-from-my-man emails so unnerved Kelley that she complained to an FBI pal of hers. But as the investigation gained momentum, the FBI agent who knew Kelley was taken off of the case by superiors who were worried “he might have grown obsessed with the matter,” the paper reported.

    And it appeared their concern was justified.

  • Jerry Brown delivers with Proposition 30– Voters approved Jerry Brown’s $6billion tax hike last week because California has changed and Brown hasn’t. Lots of help from organized labor didn’t hurt.First, give the governor his due. In a state that spawned the tax revolt 34 years ago, Proposition 30’s passage by what could end up being 10 percentage points is an extraordinary turn of events.Issues win and lose for many reasons. In this instance, the right salesman made the right pitch, and the opposition stumbled. The governor and his consultants understood the electorate and gave voters what they wanted.Brown’s message, ultimately, was simple: Government has made cuts. School kids have suffered. A “yes” vote would allow California to begin restoring public education and other services, and bring the budget into balance.
  • GOP Grapples With Embarrassing Polling Failures– In the weeks before Election Day, both Republicans and Democrats were nervous about their poll numbers. Both sides of the aisle have smart pollsters, they reasoned, so how could the numbers that Democrats were seeing diverge so sharply from the numbers the Republicans were seeing? Deep down, I wrote at the time, both parties secretly worried that their side was missing the boat.Now we know which side needed its polls unskewed. Before Election Day, Republicans confidently predicted they would pick up seats in both chambers of Congress, and that Mitt Romney would win the White House. The results shattered those predictions, and with them any sense of security in the numbers coming out of some of the best-regarded polling firms on the right.”Everyone thought the election was going to be close. How did [Republicans] not know we were going to get our ass kicked?” lamented Rob Jesmer, head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “I don’t understand how we didn’t know. That’s the part that’s most puzzling and frustrating and embarrassing.”The underlying causes of the errant numbers are the assumptions that the pollsters made about the nature of the electorate. Most pollsters believed the electorate would look something like the voters who turned out in 2008, just with slightly lower numbers of African-Americans, younger people, and Hispanics heading to the polls.

    But exit polls actually showed a much more diverse electorate than the one forecast. Black turnout stayed consistent with 2008, Hispanic turnout was up, and younger voters made up a higher percentage of the electorate than they had four years ago. White voters made up 72 percent of the electorate, according to the exits, down 2 points from 2008 and a continuation of the two-decade long decline in their share of the electorate.

    That meant that even though Mitt Romney scored 59 percent of the white vote — a higher percentage than George W. Bush won in 2000 and 2004, higher than Ronald Reagan in 1980 and matching George H.W. Bush’s 1988 score, when he won 426 electoral votes in 40 states — it wasn’t enough to overcome the 80 percent support that Obama scored among nonwhite voters.

  • How the Republican party How the Republican party can rebuild — in 4 not-so-easy steps – How the Republican party How the Republican party can rebuild — in 4 not-so-easy steps #tcot
  • Petraeus helps whistleblower’s ‘unstable’ twin in nasty custody fight – Petraeus helps whistleblower’s ‘unstable’ twin in nasty custody fight #tcot
  • David Petraeus mired in custody fight on behalf of friend in mistress flap – NYPOST.com – RT @NewYorkPost Petraeus helps whistleblower Jill Kelley’s ‘unstable’ twin in nasty custody fight EXCLUSIVE!
  • Exit polls skip Texas, missing key demographic data | Mobile Washington Examiner – Exit polls skip Texas, missing key demographic data #tcot
  • Jindal, Paul call for populist, smart GOP– Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul told Politico in separate interviews Monday that the Republican Party must be the Party of the people, with the aim of increasing freedoms, not the other way around.“We’ve got to make sure that we are not the party of big business, big banks, big Wall Street bailouts, big corporate loopholes, big anything,” Jindal said. “We cannot be, we must not be, the party that simply protects the rich so they get to keep their toys.”He asserted the GOP doesn’t have to retreat from the matters of abortion and gay marriage, though he advised them to ease their tone and rhetoric.“It is no secret we had a number of Republicans damage our brand this year with offensive, bizarre comments — enough of that,” Jindal said. “It’s not going to be the last time anyone says something stupid within our party, but it can’t be tolerated within our party.”

    An injection of intelligence and specificity is in order, instead of “dumbed-down conservatism,” he added, urging “the party of ideas, details and intelligent solutions” to end the tactic of “reducing everything to mindless slogans, tag lines, 30-second ads that all begin to sound the same.”

    “We need to stop being simplistic, we need to trust the intelligence of the American people and we need to stop insulting the intelligence of the voters,” Jindal said.

    He added: “Simply being the anti-Obama party didn’t work. You can’t beat something with nothing. The reality is we have to be a party of solutions and not just bumper-sticker slogans but real detailed policy solutions.”

  • Congress starts lame duck session | Jamie Dupree Washington Insider – RT @jamiedupree QUACK QUACK – The Lame Duck Congress convenes today, needing a deal on taxes & budget cuts #tcot
  • Exit polls skip Texas, missing key demographic data– Everyone is looking for bipartisan agreement in the aftermath of the election, and we’ve found a rare example of it. Sen.-elect Ted Cruz, a Republican, recently said this to the New Yorker about his state of Texas: “If Republicans do not do better in the Hispanic community, in a few short years Republicans will no longer be the majority party in our state.” And President Obama, a Democrat, put it this way at a Texas fundraiser in May: “You’re not considered one of the battleground states, although that’s going to be changing soon.”Unfortunately, the news media evidently don’t agree that big changes are underway in Texas. Ahead of last week’s election, the National Election Pool — which does exit polls for the Associated Press and the news networks — announced it would not be conducting full state-level surveys in 19 states, including Texas.Certainly, there are many states where this money-saving omission makes sense. But by omitting Texas, even while polling in politically settled states like Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey and New York, the exit pollsters pre-emptively missed the biggest story of the election — the continued shift of Hispanic voters back toward Democrats since the George W. Bush era.
  • Who Is Jill Kelley, The Second Woman In The Petraeus-Allen Sex Scandal – Business Insider – RT @businessinsider What We Know About Jill Kelley, The Florida Woman Whose Inbox Took Down Two Four-Star Generals
  • GOP and Immigration: The Grover Plan: More Cowbell!– We’ll dilute our way out of it! Republicans did poorly among Hispanics last week. How to address that problem? The answer, they’re told by Washington savants, is to back an immigration reform that … increases the number of Hispanics! It’s a plan so crazy it just might be crazy.Joshua Culling, who works for Grover Norquist’s Americans for Tax Reform, elaborates on the plan elsewhere on this site. It turns out the idea–let’s call it the Grover Plan, just to be annoying–isn’t as wacky as I you might think. It’s wackier.Suppose Republicans conspire with Dems to bring amnesty to the 10 or 11 million unauthorized immigrants who are already here. Eventually they become citizens. Will they be ready to wipe the slate clean and vote Republican? Or will the Dems figure out new ways to gin up their ethnic base at election time? Cullings denies they’ll be able to do that–at least by “promising direct subsidies to immigrants or an expanded welfare state:”
  • My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-11-12 – Locum Tenens (Temporary) Dentist – Gregory Cole, D.D.S. – My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-11-12
  • Greensboro News and Weather | Winston-Salem, NC – High Point, NC – Piedmont Triad | digtriad.com – FBI Agents Raiding NC Home Of Woman In Petraeus Scandal | #tcot
  • Photo by katieharbath • Instagram – Happy Birthday, Katie! RT @katieharbath: Birthday dessert.
  • FBI Agents Raiding NC Home Of Woman In Petraeus Scandal | digtriad.com – Ahhh Yes….RT @janewells: Certainly glad the FBI is all over domestic terrorist Paula Broadwell…
  • The Doobie Brothers 1996 #6-South City Midnight Lady – YouTube – Yup! RT @DanRiehl: The Doobie Brothers 1996 South City Midnight Lady: via @youtube
  • Own It: Comcast’s NBCUniversal unit lays off 500 employees– Comcast Corp’s NBCUniversal entertainment unit is laying off about 500 employees at cable channels, Jay Leno’s late-night TV show and the Universal Pictures movie studio, a person with knowledge of the matter said on Monday.The cuts add up to about 1.5 percent of the company’s workforce of 30,000 employees, the source said.A large portion of the layoffs occurred at the G4 cable channel, a network about video games and the gaming culture, the source said. Two of the network’s shows were recently canceled.
  • Day By Day November 11, 2012 – Bread & Circuses – Flap’s Blog – Day By Day November 11, 2012 – Bread & Circuses #tcot
  • No Meat on Mondays in Los Angeles = Meatless Mondays to Save the Planet– The Los Angeles City Council is urging all residents to observe “meatless Mondays” from now on.A resolution adopted on Oct. 24 reads: “Be it resolved, that the Council of the City of Los Angeles hereby declares all Mondays as ‘Meatless Mondays’ in support of comprehensive sustainability efforts as well as to further encourage residents to eat a more varied plant-based diet to protect their health and protect animals.”Councilwoman Jan Perry, who introduced the resolution, also wants to ban new fast-food restaurants in South Los Angeles.”While this is a symbolic gesture, it is asking people to think about the food choices they make. Eating less meat can reverse some of our nation’s most common illnesses,” press reports quoted Perry as saying.
  • Sarah Westwood: Advice From a Lonely College Republican– If the election results told us anything, it’s that the GOP has some serious soul searching to do. On paper, Mitt Romney’s history of accomplishment towered over President Obama’s train wreck of a record, so his loss seemed nearly inexplicable. But Mr. Obama carried his key groups so easily that Republicans should give him props for such a feat— and start taking notes.In politics, as in life, perception is key. The Chicago machine and the Democratic National Committee as a whole have perfected the art of marketing, even when they’ve got nothing to sell. They’re like a used-car salesman who pushes lemons on unsuspecting drivers and never gets caught. Democrats can home in on Latinos, blacks, single women, young voters—and have them chanting “Four more years!” before they know what hit them.I happen to be one of the latter, a college student at a time when youth is a hot political commodity. Most kids my age bristle at the word “conservative,” and I don’t blame them. The right has done nothing to welcome young people.If Republicans hope to win in 2016 and beyond, they need to change everything about the way they sell themselves. They’re viewed by the 18-24 set as the “party of the rich” and as social bigots. That harsh, flawed opinion could be rectified if Republicans started presenting their positions in a different way. The GOP is like a supermodel who has been doing photo shoots under fluorescent bulbs without any makeup. But fix the lighting, dab on some foundation and highlight her good side, and she can take the most attractive picture.
  • The Republican Party’s Candidate Problem in Two Charts– Two days after a wholly disappointing election for the National Republican Senatorial Committee that saw the party not only fail to gain the majority but actually lose seats, a soul-searching of how it happened has begun.The blame, as it often is, has been thrust on the candidates. And, at least in this case, for good reason. After all, Richard Mourdock and Todd Akin essentially gave away seats with their comments on rape and pregnancy.But the trouble for the GOP wasn’t just in Indiana and Missouri.In fact, as the chart below details, Republican Senate candidates under-performed GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney in most of the important races of 2012.
  • Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-11-11 – Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-11-11
  • Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-11-11 – Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-11-11 #tcot
  • My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-11-11 – Locum Tenens (Temporary) Dentist – Gregory Cole, D.D.S. – My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-11-11
  • California’s Liberal Supermajority – Taxpayers are going to get all the government they ever wanted– For Republicans unhappy with Tuesday’s election, we have good news—at least most of you don’t live in California. Not only did Democrats there win voter approval to raise the top tax rate to 13.3%, but they also received a huge surprise—a legislative supermajority. Look out below.The main check on Sacramento excess has been a constitutional amendment requiring a two-thirds majority of both houses to raise taxes. Although Republicans have been in the minority for four decades, they could impose a modicum of spending restraint by blocking tax increases. If Democratic leads stick in two races where ballots are still being counted, liberals will pick up enough seats to secure a supermajority. Governor Jerry Brown then will be the only chaperone for the Liberals Gone Wild video that is Sacramento.
  • Gregory Flap’s Badges – Mall Rat – I just reached Level 2 of the “Mall Rat” badge on @foursquare. I’ve checked in at 5 different malls!
  • Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-11-10 – Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-11-10
  • My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-11-10 – Locum Tenens (Temporary) Dentist – Gregory Cole, D.D.S. – My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-11-10
  • The PJ Tatler » FBI Probe of Petreaus Triggered by Threatening Emails Sent by Mistress – RT @PJTatler FBI Probe of Petreaus Triggered by Threatening Emails Sent by Mistress #tcot
  • GOP Collapses in California – RT @politicalwire The Rep. party has essentially collapsed in California as Democrats now control just about everything
  • Bonus Quote of the Day – Ha! 1 month RT @politicalwire Hillary Clinton on what she’ll do next: “I would like to see whether I can get untired.”
  • Rep. Allen West is apparently defeated – He should RT @TheFix Final vote tally shows Rep. Allen West lost by 2,000 votes. He still hasn’t conceded.
  • Utah News, Sports, Weather and Classifieds | ksl.com – RT @JoeTrippi Whoa – AP story points to Huntsman Jr. as Secretary of State candidate |
  • AP story points to Huntsman Jr. as Secretary of State candidate | ksl.com – RT @JoeTrippi Whoa – AP story points to Huntsman Jr. as Secretary of State candidate |
  • 2012 Florida Election Watch – Federal Offices – RT @jamiedupree Obama officially wins Florida with 50.01% of the vote to 49.13% for Romney
  • Gregory Flap @ Ronnie’s Diner – 12 miles of LA Marathon training done. Now, some repair at Ronnie’s. (@ Ronnie’s Diner)
  • Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-11-09 – Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-11-09
  • Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-11-09 – Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-11-09 #tcot
  • My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-11-09 – Locum Tenens (Temporary) Dentist – Gregory Cole, D.D.S. – My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-11-09
  • Romney Failed to Make Sizeable Gains in Swing States – So why did Romney underperform in these swing states? It is hard to say for sure. The Obama team may have utilized more effective television ads. They may also have enjoyed a superior get-out-the-vote operation. There may have been idiosyncratic factors that limited Republican gains in these states. However, there is a good chance that this group of eight states will prove pivotal in future elections. As such, the Republicans party would do well to identify strategies for both mobilizing Republican voters and expanding the Republican base in these states.
  • Where Obama did better in 2012 than in 2008 (in one map)– President Obama was reelected on Tuesday, but he won by significantly smaller margins across the entire country — except for a handful of places.One of those places just happens to be the Eastern part of New Jersey, which was rocked by Hurricane Sandy a week before the election.Voters up and down the counties along the Jersey Shore and in the New York City area voted for Obama by more than they voted for him in 2008. Obama did better in 2012 in Ocean County, Middlesex County, Union County and Passaic County, along with nearby Richmond County, N.Y. — a.k.a. Staten Island.Here’s the map showing where Obama did better and worse
  • Gen. David Petraeus resignation letter (full text) – POLITICO.com – Something smells rotten here! RT @politico: Text of Gen. David Petraeus’s resignation letter: #tcot
  • California Democrats amass control over unruly state – California Becomes a One Party State– Governor Jerry Brown and his Democratic allies on Tuesday won a mandate that might be the envy of President Barack Obama, turning the nation’s bluest state into one in which Democrats will likely have all but complete political control.Voters approved a tax hike championed by Brown and soundly rejected a measure that would have gutted union political power. Perhaps most importantly, if initial vote totals hold in several very close legislative races as the final absentee ballots are counted, they will have handed Democrats supermajority control of both houses of the state legislature for the first time in 79 years.rown, who largely failed to gain cooperation from Republicans over the last two years, now owns the field. He has the opportunity to overhaul the tax code, reform the Byzantine governmental processes that have hobbled Sacramento for decades, and even potentially touch the “third rail” of California politics, the low-property-tax measure known as Proposition 13.”I guess you might say it’s our time,” Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg told a news conference.

    The ascendance of Democrats and their union backers may give more than a little pause to businesses and wealthy individuals, who now face higher taxes and the prospect of even more new taxes and regulations.

    The state’s top personal income tax rate was already the second highest in the nation at 10.3 percent before Tuesday’s vote, and will now rise to 13.3 percent for the next seven years.

  • Obamacare Forever? – What Barack Obama’s second term means for the president’s signature health law– Since debate about health care reform began, voters have been consistently wary of the law that has become known as Obamacare; as of today, Pollster.com’s aggregate shows that 47.8 percent of the public opposes the law while just 39.2 percent approve. Yet in voting to give President Barack Obama a second term yesterday, America also implicitly voted to keep the health law that bears his name in place. So is Obamacare here to stay?Yes, at least for now. But big questions still remain. We know we’ll keep Obamacare on the books, at least for the foreseeable future. What we don’t know is whether it will work.That’s because the law still faces huge legal and logistical hurdles. Tops on the list are challenges to the law’s insurance exchanges, starting with a lawsuit filed by Oklahoma’s attorney general. That case, which revolves around legal problems examined in a paper by Case Western Reserve law professor Jonathan Adler and Cato Institute Health Policy Direct Michael Cannon, may decide whether employers in states that do not set up their own health insurance exchanges can be taxed under the law, as well as whether it is legal for the federal government to offer insurance subsidies through exchanges it runs in states that opt out. The law, which taxes employers that don’t offer insurance in order to fund those subsidies, states that subsidies are only available in state-run exchanges.If Oklahoma’s suit prevails, states will have a large incentive to opt out of creating exchanges in order to protect employers from the tax penalty. And the federal exchanges will be largely useless. “No one would go to those exchanges. The whole structure created by the health care reform law starts to fall apart,” Gretchen Young, senior vice president-health policy at the ERISA Industry Committee told Business Insurance.

The Morning Flap: November 5, 2012

Posted Posted in Pinboard Links, The Morning Flap

Romney campaigning in Virginia

Mitt Romney campaigning in Virginia today

These are my links for November 2nd through November 5th:

  • How Romneyworld sees Mitt winning the White House on Tuesday– The more difficult case to make is how Romney’s vote is lifted so that on the spectrum of Obama states to capture (the order in terms of confidence seems to be Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Iowa, Ohio, Colorado, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Nevada and Michigan) it is a tide that rises above the Ohio threshold.Senior Romney advisers insist that although the popular vote will be close, in the electoral college the Republican nominee will win by more than 300 – something the adviser quoted here had predicted for several months.For that, several things have to happen: the battleground polls have to be wrong; undecideds have to vote for Romney; Romney’s turnout has to be very high; Obama’s vote has to be depressed.

    Can so many polls be wrong? The short answer is yes. It is worth remembering that in January 2008 virtually no one in the political world believed that Hillary Clinton could win the New Hampshire primary over Obama, fresh off his Iowa victory. But win it she did.

    This year, apart from Gallup and Rasmussen, pollsters have consistently over-sampled Democrats compared to Republicans. The Romney adviser said: ‘The samples that they’re using are geared towards 2008 results. So you get Democrats plus four on Pew, you’ve got Democrats plus eight on PPP.

    ‘It’s going to be a Republican plus one or Republicans plus two election. It’s not 2008, it’s not 2004, it’s not 2000. It’s a new election. It’s 2012 and a completely different dynamic. Every election we re-write history on turnout.

    ‘Gallup looked at it a week ago and decided it was going to be a more Republican electorate and they had it right.’

    The closer you get to an election, the more likely undecideds are to break against the incumbent. Romney will also have voter enthusiasm on his side. Whether that’s enough, remains an open question but the Romney campaign thinks so.

    ‘What’s going on here is when you have intensity and momentum,’ said the Romney adviser.

  • All Over But the Vote Counting– After four nationally televised debates, two political conventions, hundreds of speeches, one devastating hurricane, and the expenditure of an estimated $2 billion — most of it on nasty, negative, and mendacious television ads — the 2012 campaign finally comes to a close Tuesday.Going into the final day, independent surveys still show the race to be close, with little recent movement — and few undecided voters left.Nonetheless, President Obama’s top advisers and like-minded pundits are openly confident, even haughty, in their certitude that a slight advantage in the public opinion polls will translate into a comfortable Electoral College victory Tuesday night. By contrast, the attitude at Mitt Romney’s headquarters might best be described as cautiously hopeful.
  • 2012 Election: Poll: Mitt Romney ran better than John McCain– Americans are far more satisfied with Mitt Romney’s campaign than they were with John McCain’s effort four years ago, according to a poll released Monday.Only four-in-ten were happy with McCain’s 2008 campaign, according to Gallup, while 54 percent are satisfied with the race Romney has run. Satisfaction with President Barack Obama’s campaign has dipped from 66 percent — the highest Gallup has ever recorded — in 2008 to 58 percent in 2012.
  • Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-11-04 – Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-11-04
  • Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-11-04 – Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-11-04 #tcot
  • My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-11-04 – Locum Tenens (Temporary) Dentist – Gregory Cole, D.D.S. – My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-11-04
  • Arizona group plans appeal to U.S. Supreme Court in funding case– The Arizona nonprofit behind a controversial $11-million donation plans to take its case to the U.S. Supreme Court in a last-ditch bid to avoid turning over records to California’s campaign finance watchdog.The California Supreme Court ordered the nonprofit to comply with an audit by 4 p.m. Sunday. Lawyers for the nonprofit asked for an extension, saying it was impossible from “a logistical perspective.”That request was denied by the state justices, and the nonprofit’s lawyers filed another letter outlining its plan to continue appealing the case.

    In the letter, San Francisco attorney Thad Davis said the case raises “novel and pressing issues” that need a full vetting before the nonprofit can be forced to turn over records.

    Davis wrote that the case “raises critical First Amendment issues regarding the ability of an organization to freely associate and speak on vital election-related matters without reprisal by government officials opposed to their view.”

  • Poll: Rehberg holds edge over Tester in Montana Senate race – CNN Political Ticker – CNN.com Blogs – RT @PoliticalTicker: Poll: Rehberg holds edge over Tester in Montana Senate race #tcot
  • A Staten Island Run For Relief | newyorkcitymarathon.runnersworld.com – RT @runnersworld: A firsthand account of today’s run for relief on Staten Island, via @exerscience #NYCMarathon
  • California Supreme Court orders nonprofit to face FPPC audit– Update (4:50 p.m.): Americans for Responsible Leadership did not submit information to the FPPC by 4 p.m. as ordered and instead has asked the state court for more time as it asks the U.S. Supreme Court for review, according to FPPC chairwoman Ann Ravel.The California Supreme Court this afternoon ordered an obscure Arizona nonprofit to submit donation records immediately to state regulators related to an $11 million contribution the group gave in October.The state’s highest court issued its unanimous 7-0 decision at 3 p.m. after a telephone conference and gave Phoenix-based Americans for Responsible Leadership until 4 p.m. to comply.

    The state Fair Political Practices Commission had asked the Supreme Court to force ARL to turn over e-mails and transactions data behind the donation, whose specific donors the group has never disclosed. The group gave $11 million to a business campaign committee established to oppose Gov. Jerry Brown’s tax initiative, Proposition 30, and support a measure that would restrict union dues collection, Proposition 32.

  • Ontario Teachers Said to Near $1.3 Billion Heartland Dental Care Deal– Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan is nearing a deal to buy Heartland Dental Care Inc. that values the company at about $1.3 billion, outbidding traditional leveraged- buyout funds, said people with knowledge of the matter.The Canadian retirement fund may be prepared to announce an agreement with Effingham, Illinois-based Heartland as soon as tomorrow, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the talks are private. KKR & Co. (KKR), Madison Dearborn Partners LLC, and Apax Partners LLP had also pursued an acquisition of Heartland, one of the people said.Founded by Chief Executive Officer Richard Workman, Heartland is one of the largest U.S. dental practice management companies. It manages 370 practices in 19 states, helping dentists with personnel and back-office support, according to its website. CHS Capital, a Chicago-based private equity firm, bought a stake of undisclosed size in Heartland in 2008.

    Calls to Deborah Allan, a spokeswoman for Ontario Teachers’, and Ashley Buehnerkemper, of closely held Heartland, weren’t immediately returned. Representatives of the private- equity firms declined to comment.

    In addition to investing in private equity funds managed by others, Teachers, with C$117.1 billion under management as of Dec. 31, makes its own direct investments in private equity, usually alongside a buyout firm. Teachers has disclosed only two acquisitions worth more than $1 billion without a co-investor, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    Those were the 2007 acquisition of marine container terminals in Canada and the U.S. from Oriental Overseas International Ltd. for about $2.35 billion, and the 2000 purchase of Cadillac Fairview Corp., a commercial real estate developer, for C$2.3 billion ($1.56 billion at the time).

  • AD-38: The Signal Scolds Endorsee Edward Headington – AD-38: The Signal Scolds Endorsee Edward Headington
  • Running / Perfect Conditions – Perfect Conditions
  • Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-11-03 – Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-11-03
  • Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-11-03 – Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-11-03 #tcot
  • My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-11-03 – Locum Tenens (Temporary) Dentist – Gregory Cole, D.D.S. – My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-11-03
  • Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-11-02 – Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-11-02
  • Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-11-02 – Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-11-02 #tcot
  • My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-11-02 – Locum Tenens (Temporary) Dentist – Gregory Cole, D.D.S. – My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-11-02
  • President 2012: Nine Electoral College Forecasts – Ryan Teague Beckwith rounds up electoral maps from nine political prognosticators, all of which see President Obama winning re-election with anywhere from 281 to 332 electoral votes.
  • Reid to Romney: Senate Dems Won’t Work With You– If Mitt Romney wins the presidency, he will not win cooperation from Senate Democrats, Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said Friday in his latest and perhaps final shot at a candidate who aides say Reid personally disdains.In a statement reacting to what he said are Romney’s claims that Senate Democrats will work with him on his agenda, Reid calls Romney a “severe conservative” whose “far-right agenda” Democrats reject.

    “Romney’s fantasy that Senate Democrats will work with him to pass his ‘severely conservative’ agenda is laughable. In fact, Mitt Romney’s Tea Party agenda has already been rejected in the Senate,” Reid says, listing GOP policies Romney has embraced that the Senate has voted down, including the budget plans offered by vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan, R.-Wis.

    Democrats look set to retain control of the Senate. Reid’s statement, while aiming to aid President Obama’s reelection, is a reminder that should Romney win, Senate Democrats will pose a major hurdle to his plans and that Reid’s dislike of Romney, more specifically, would be a problem.

  • Is the California Death Penalty Toast? – Flap’s California Blog – Is the California Death Penalty Toast?
  • AD-48: Why Would Roger Hernandez Resign? – Flap’s California Blog – AD-48: Why Would Roger Hernandez Resign?
  • The Case of the GMO Papaya – This story ends in the same way it begins—with conflict. The disagreements in California, fortunately, have not resulted in physical altercations or property damage. Ultimately, however, both those who support and oppose GMOs should take the time to discuss each side’s viewpoint. As Davidson notes, scientists need to make themselves more available to answer questions the public undoubtedly has, and to illustrate that genetic modification is more than an issue of simple economics. Sometimes, as in the case of the papaya, the ability of future generations to partake in a highly nutrient-dense crop may be at stake. An open, transparent forum of ideas will do much to alleviate the concerns of more moderate GMO activists and allow all of humanity to reap the benefits of this technology.
  • Trooth.Com: The Dr. Wisdom Teeth Radio Ad – Flap’s Blog – : The Dr. Wisdom Teeth Radio Ad #tcot
  • Dr. Heath Hendrickson (Dr. Wisdom Teeth) radio ad – YouTube – Dr. Heath Hendrickson (Dr. Wisdom Teeth) radio ad – YouTube #tcot
  • Dr. Heath Hendrickson (Dr. Wisdom Teeth) radio ad – YouTube – I uploaded a @YouTube video Dr Heath Hendrickson radio ad
  • California Proposition 37: A Belligerent Genetically Modified Banana? – California Proposition 37: A Belligerent Genetically Modified Banana? #tcot
  • Trooth.Com – The Picketers Return to Dr. Heath Hendrickson’s Dental Office – Flap’s Blog – – The Picketers Return to Dr. Heath Hendrickson’s Dental Office #tcot
  • Marathon Runners Stop Aging Out of the Race – WSJ.com – Marathon Runners Stop Aging Out of the Race –
  • The Morning Flap: November 2, 2012 – Flap’s Blog – The Morning Flap: November 2, 2012 #tcot

The Morning Flap: November 2, 2012

Posted 1 CommentPosted in Pinboard Links, The Morning Flap

Obama and Romney

These are my links for November 1st through November 2nd:

  • The Mystery Election — and Its Uncertain Aftermath– The presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney is so close that pollsters and political analysts can’t predict the outcome. But an equivalent mystery is how the winner will confront the nation’s on-rushing potential fiscal calamity.After three presidential debates we still have few clues about how either Obama or Romney would prevent a plunge off what Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke calls “the fiscal cliff” at year’s end. That’s when across-the-board income tax cuts enacted during the George W. Bush presidency will expire, as will a “holiday” on payroll withholding taxes.These tax increases would coincide with previously approved federal budget cuts of more than a trillion dollars and the end of extended unemployment insurance. Combined, these actions would subtract roughly 5 percent from the U.S. economy, almost certainly plunging the nation into recession.It’s widely assumed in Washington and on Wall Street that Obama and the lame-duck Congress will find a way to avoid such a devastating outcome. But neither presidential candidate has hinted at compromise, and the solutions floated in the media by a bipartisan group of U.S. senators would require concessions that neither side appears willing to make.

    Obama insists firmly on raising taxes on the rich, and Romney is equally adamant about retaining all Bush-era tax cuts. It seems unlikely that Obama would abandon his most frequent campaign promise before a second term even begins and perhaps even less likely that a Republican-controlled House would approve a tax increase. If Romney wins, the lame-duck Congress might kick the can down the road until he takes office, but a new Republican president who agreed to a tax boost could soon be anathema to his party.

    Stuart K. Spencer, a key political strategist for Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford, is pessimistic about post-election compromise. He notes that the race has been both personal and ideological and believes the losing side is more likely to be confrontational than conciliatory. “It’s not just the politicians either,” Spencer said. “The American people are evenly divided and have strong feelings”

  • On Polling Models, Skewed & Unskewed – Obama is Still Toast– We can’t know until Election Day who is right. I stand by my view that Obama is losing independent voters decisively, because the national and state polls both support that thesis. I stand by my view that Republican turnout will be up significantly from recent-historic lows in 2008 in the key swing states (Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado) and nationally, because the post-2008 elections, the party registration data, the early-voting and absentee-ballot numbers, and the Rasmussen and Gallup national party-ID surveys (both of which have solid track records) all point to this conclusion. I stand by my view that no countervailing evidence outside of poll samples shows a similar surge above 2008 levels in Democratic voter turnout, as would be needed to offset Romney’s advantage with independents and increased GOP voter turnout. And I stand by the view that a mechanical reading of polling averages is an inadequate basis to project an event unprecedented in American history: the re-election of a sitting president without a clear-cut victory in the national popular vote.Perhaps, despite the paucity of evidence to the contrary, these assumptions are wrong. But if they are correct, no mathematical model can provide a convincing explanation of how Obama is going to win re-election. He remains toast.
  • In Shift, Romney Campaign Makes Push in Pennsylvania– In a striking last-minute shift, the Romney campaign has decided to invest its most precious resource — the candidate’s time — in a serious play to win Pennsylvania.Mr. Romney’s appearance here on Sunday could be a crafty political move to seriously undercut President Obama, or it could be a sign of desperation. Either way, his visit represents the biggest jolt yet in a state that was until recently largely ignored in the race for the White House.Over the last several days, with polls showing Mr. Obama’s edge in the state narrowing, Republicans have sprung into action and forced the Democrats to spend resources here that could have gone toward more competitive battleground states.
  • President 2012: Iowa State of the Race– The thrill is gone. And in Iowa, the Obama firewall is burning. Today’s headline on Politico said it all: Obama to End Campaign In Iowa.Mitt Romney is going to win Iowa on Tuesday, and the state that launched Barack Obama’s historic run for the White House will politely ask to have its vote back.With a clean sweep of major newspaper endorsements, Iowans woke up this past week to an unexpected unanimity among editorial boards. And while two of the four newspapers switched from Barack Obama, they’re not alone. Thousands upon thousands of voters have switched their votes as well. It shows up in polling, early-voting metrics, and enthusiasm on the ground.And although polling shows a tight race in Iowa, it’s important to note that, in 2008, Obama held a 14-point lead in the final Des Moines Register Iowa Poll published the Sunday before the election. He won by fewer than 10 points. He will again under-perform his Iowa polling, where he has yet to come close to the 50 percent mark in any survey of polling averages.
  • Poll: Mia Love opens up big lead – Katie Glueck – POLITICO.com – RT @politico Poll: Mia Love opens up big lead: #tcot
  • Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-11-01 – Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-11-01
  • Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-11-01 – Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-11-01 #tcot
  • President 2012: Latest Key Battleground State Polls for November 1 – President 2012: Latest Key Battleground State Polls for November 1 #tcot
  • Two-thirds of jobs go to immigrants during Obama’s four years – Washington Times – Two-thirds of jobs go to immigrants during Obama’s four years – Washington Times #tcot
  • Two-thirds of jobs go to immigrants during Obama’s four years – Washington Times – Two-thirds of jobs go to immigrants during Obama’s four years – Washington Times #tcot
  • My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-11-01 – Locum Tenens (Temporary) Dentist – Gregory Cole, D.D.S. – My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-11-01
  • Two-thirds of jobs go to immigrants during Obama’s four years – Washington Times – Two-thirds of jobs go to immigrants during Obama’s four years – Washington Times #tcot
  • Two-thirds of jobs go to immigrants during Obama’s four years – Washington Times – Two-thirds of jobs go to immigrants during Obama’s four years #tcot
  • Two-thirds of jobs go to immigrants during Obama’s four years– Two-thirds of those who have found employment under President Obama are immigrants, both legal and illegal, according to an analysis that suggests immigration has soaked up a large portion of what little job growth there has been over the past three years.The Center for Immigration Studies is releasing the study Thursday morning, a day ahead of the final Labor Department unemployment report of the campaign season, which is expected to show a sluggish job market more than three years into the economic recovery.That slow market, combined with the immigration numbers, could explain why Mr. Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney have struggled to find a winning jobs message in some of the country’s hardest-hit postindustrial regions.“It’s extraordinary that most of the employment growth in the last four years has gone to the foreign-born, but what’s even more extraordinary is the issue has not even come up during a presidential election that is so focused on jobs,” said Steven A. Camarota, the center’s research director, who wrote the report along with demographer Karen Zeigle
    His numbers are stark: Since the first quarter of 2009, the number of immigrants of working age (16 to 65) who are employed has risen 2 million, from 21.2 million to 23.2 million. During the same time, native-born employment has risen just 1 million, to reach 119.9 million.
  • AD-48: Baldwin Park Councilwoman Calls for Roger Hernandez Resignation – AD-48: Baldwin Park Councilwoman Calls for Roger Hernandez Resignation
  • Shouldn’t California Politicians Emulate the Oakland A’s? – Shouldn’t California Politicians Emulate the Oakland A’s?
  • Flap’s Dentistry Blog: Kristen Uniforms: A Review – Kristen Uniforms: A Review
  • The Morning Flap: November 1, 2012 – Flap’s Blog – The Morning Flap: November 1, 2012 #tcot

The Morning Flap: November 1, 2012

Posted Posted in Pinboard Links, The Morning Flap

Romney campaigningThese are my links for October 30th through November 1st:

  • Romney, Obama camps war over ‘state of the race’– Who has the momentum in the race for the White House, President Barack Obama or GOP challenger Mitt Romney?Each campaign says they do, and are seeking to impress upon reporters that point.”A week from today, we will know hopefully the outcome of the election and we believe that Mitt Romney will be the next president of the United States,” Russ Schriefer, a senior adviser to Romney’s campaign, said Wednesday afternoon in a conference call with reporters.Obama campaign senior adviser David Axelrod cited poll and early voting numbers in a separate call a few hours earlier, saying, “We feel very, very good about the numbers that we’re mounting up in those states.”Their efforts come with only six days remaining in the presidential contest and after several days of campaigning were scrapped as Superstorm Sandy battered several eastern states. On Monday, Obama’s campaign held a call with the same theme, and earlier on Friday, Romney senior adviser Kevin Madden told reporters traveling with the candidate that Democrats were feeling under pressure.

    “I think in many of these states where the Democrats considered those to be locked down, safe states that they weren’t going to have to defend, they’ve now gone up with – they’re now pouring resources into those states,” he said. “They have to put up ads on the air, and I think that shows that they’re playing defense, whereas when we’ve gone in with resources to many states, it’s because we’re playing offense, that we have an expanded map now to get to the, our electoral of 270.”

    Madden’s briefing took place on a flight from Miami to Tampa, Florida, and was the first time in several days the campaign has held an on-the-record briefing for reporters.

  • Romney forces see Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota ripe for turning red– After a season dominated by talk of Ohio, Virginia and Florida, Campaign 2012 suddenly shifted focus to a new trio of states Wednesday amid a new verbal battle about which candidate is better positioned to win on Tuesday.The new geographic front in the political war focuses on Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota, three states that have backed Democrats dating back at least to 1988 but which Republicans say are ripe for GOP nominee Mitt Romney in his challenge to President Obama.Republican super PACs have been advertising in those states for some time, and Romney’s campaign has joined in two of them, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, but not Michigan as of Wednesday.Money spent in unexpected places by the campaigns or their super PACs says little at this point. That’s because, unlike in past presidential campaigns, both sides are flush with cash and have extra funds to play with down the stretch.The fact that Romney’s campaign has put some money into ads in Minnesota and now Pennsylvania doesn’t say a lot so far, and the fact that his campaign has not put money into ads in Michigan may say more about the campaign’s assessment of the electoral map.

    Still, Romney advisers said the action in Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Michigan showed that Republicans are expanding the electoral map and have more options to get to 270 electoral votes.

  • Obama’s empty, strident campaign– Energetic in body but indolent in mind, Barack Obama in his frenetic campaigning for a second term is promising to replicate his first term, although simply apologizing would be appropriate. His long campaign’s bilious tone — scurrilities about Mitt Romney as a monster of, at best, callous indifference; adolescent japes about “Romnesia” — is discordant coming from someone who has favorably compared his achievements to those of “any president” since Lincoln, with the “possible” exceptions of Lincoln, LBJ and FDR. Obama’s oceanic self-esteem — no deficit there — may explain why he seems to smolder with resentment that he must actually ask for a second term.Speaking of apologies, Syracuse University’s law school should issue one for having graduated Joe Biden. In the 2008 vice presidential debate, he condescendingly lectured Sarah Palin that Article I of the Constitution defines the executive branch. Actually, Article II does. In this year’s debate, he said that overturning Roe v. Wade would “outlaw” abortion. Actually, this would just restore abortion as a subject for states to regulate as they choose. Biden, whose legal education ended well before he was full to the brim, was nominated for his current high office because Democrats believe compassion should temper the severities of meritocracy. It is, however, remarkable, and evidence of voters’ dangerous frivolity regarding the vice presidency, that Biden’s proximity to the presidency has not stirred more unease. To forestall that, Biden should heed Alexis de Tocqueville: “To remain silent is the most useful service that a mediocre speaker can render to the public good.”
  • Poll: Romney, Obama running roughly even in ground game– Although both presidential campaigns have touted their political ground games as the reason their candidate will break away in a presidential race that looks essentially deadlocked, a new survey from the Pew Research Center suggests Mitt Romney and President Obama are also running roughly even in terms of outreach.While nearly eight in 10 voters in battleground states have received campaign-related direct mail and six in 10 say they’ve been the recipient of a pre-recorded phone call, neither side has pulled away in influencing voters.In fact, 38 percent of voters in battleground states say they have been contacted by both campaigns, with 14 percent saying they have only been contacted by the Romney campaign and 13 percent saying only the president’s reelection team has reached out to them. Around a third of battleground state voters say they have been missed by both campaigns.
  • Women: Sen. Bob Menendez paid us for sex in the Dominican Republic – Two women from the Dominican Republic told The Daily Caller that Democratic New JerseySen. Bob Menendez paid them for sex earlier this year.In interviews, the two women said they metMenendez around Easter at Casa de Campo, an expensive 7,000 acre resort in the Dominican Republic.

They claimed Menendez agreed to pay them $500 for sex acts, but in the end they each received only $100.

The women spoke through a translator in the company of their attorney, Melanio Figueroa.

Both asked that their identities remain obscured for fear of reprisals in the Dominican Republic.

When shown a photograph of Sen. Menendez,the women said they recognized him as the man with whom they’d had sexual relations at
Casa de Campo this spring.

Both said they were brought to the resort with the understanding they would be paid for sex.

Neither knew the identity of the man at thetime. Both claimed to recognize him later as Sen. Menendez.

“He called him[self] ‘Bob,’” said one.

 

The Morning Flap: October 30, 2012

Posted Posted in Pinboard Links, The Morning Flap

Mitt Romney campaigning

These are my links for October 25th through October 30th:

  • Gallup: Obama’s Early Vote Advantage Collapses 22-Points Over 2008 – My pal Guy Benson found a juicy nugget that helps to bring more clarity to the news from Gallup yesterday that shows Romney leading Obama in the early vote by a full seven points, 52-45%. Almost exactly four years ago (October 28, 2008),  according to Gallup, Obama was massacring John McCain among early voters with a fifteen-point lead, 55-40%. That means, at least according to Gallup, that Obama’s early vote advantage has dropped 22 points when compared to ’08.
  • NPR: 8-point swing puts Romney in front– A new National Public Radio poll, which had President Obama leading Mitt Romney 51 percent to 44 percent four weeks ago, now has Mitt Romney on top, 48 percent to 47 percent, with the Republican benefiting from his debate performances.The poll found that among likely voters, 34 percent said Romney’s debate performances made them more likely to vote for the challenger while 28 percent said they now are more likely to vote for the president. Among critical independent voters, though, Romney won big, with 37 percent saying they are now more likely to chose him compared to 21 percent for Obama.
  • AUTO BAILOUT BOMBSHELL: Fiat Says Chrysler, Jeep Production May Move to Italy– Coming hot on the heels of speculation that some Jeep production may be moved to China comes a bombshell from a Bloomberg report. Fiat is now considering moving Chrysler and Jeep production to Italy.According to the piece, “To counter the severe slump in European sales, (Fiat CEO Sergio) Marchionne is considering building Chrysler models in Italy, including Jeeps, for export to North America. The Italian government is evaluating tax rebates on export goods to help Fiat. Marchionne may announce details of his plan as soon as Oct. 30, the people said.”So, let’s be real clear here, we are talking about vehicles that will be built in Italy and exported to America. The evidence is clear that Fiat is looking at ways to move production of vehicles from the US to elsewhere, whether it be China or Italy, costing American jobs. This is becoming indisputable, despite outcries from certain parties to the contrary.
  • Presidential Race Dead Even; Romney Maintains Turnout Edge | Pew Research Center for the People and the Press – Presidential Race Dead Even; Romney Maintains Turnout Edge | Pew Research Center for the People and the Press #tcot
  • Day By Day October 29 & 30, 2012 – Mommie Dearest and Trick – Flap’s Blog – Day By Day October 29 & 30, 2012 – Mommie Dearest and Trick #tcot
  • AD-48: More Trouble for Roger Hernandez – Woman Files for Protective Order – AD-48: More Trouble for Roger Hernandez – Woman Files for Protective Order
  • Presidential Race Dead Even; Romney Maintains Turnout Edge | Pew Research Center for the People and the Press – Presidential Race Dead Even; Romney Maintains Turnout Edge #tcot
  • Barack Obama and Other Has-Beens –– And so to Barack Obama.When the history of this administration is written, maybe someone will note the dissonance between the president’s hip persona and his retro ideology. Here was a man who promised a “transformative” presidency. Yet when transformation came, it amounted to a two-pronged attempt to impose, from one side, a version of European social democracy by way of ObamaCare, and from the other side a version of Chinese state-directed “capitalism” by way of the stimulus.As a political matter it may have been Mr. Obama’s good luck that the bankruptcy of both models became obvious only after he had gotten his way legislatively on both. Yet the president’s sagging fortunes have everything to do with his buying into an ideological enthusiasm too late. In a different age, Mr. Obama would have been the guy who went out and bought an Edsel. In this age, Mr. Obama is the guy demanding that you buy an Edsel, too. That car is today called the Volt.Mr. Obama might still squeak by. He has, in addition to incumbency and a vestige of likability, the benefit of a challenger who only found his stride very late in the campaign. But a second term will mean four years of spent ideas packaged in shopworn rhetoric, to be shoved down the national throat by a president with nothing politically to lose.

    Sound appealing?

  • Presidential Race Dead Even; Romney Maintains Turnout Edge– As the presidential campaign enters its final week, Barack Obama has failed to regain much of the support he lost in the days following the first presidential debate and the race is now even among likely voters: 47% favor Obama while an identical percentage supports Mitt Romney.The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 24-28 among 1,678 registered voters, including 1,495 likely voters, finds Obama holding a statistically insignificant two-point edge among registered voters: 47% to 45%. This is little different from the 46% to 46% standoff among registered voters observed in early October, in the days following the first debate.When the sample is narrowed to likely voters, the balance of opinion shifts slightly in Romney’s direction, as it did in early October. This reflects Romney’s turnout advantage over Obama, which could loom larger as Election Day approaches. In both October surveys, more Republicans and Republican leaners than Democrats and Democratic leaners are predicted to be likely voters. In September, the gap was more modest.
  • Mark Halperin: Democrats Are Playing Defense On Electoral Map – YouTube – RT @PounderFile VIDEO: Mark Halperin: Democrats Are Playing Defense On Electoral Map #tcot
  • Poll: Romney, Obama locked in 49-49 tie– President Obama and GOP challenger Mitt Romney are tied with only a week left before election day, according to the latest Washington Post/ABC News daily tracking poll.The new poll finds each candidate receiving support from 49 percent of likely voters. That represents a 1-point bump for the president who trailed Romney 49-48 in Sunday’s numbers.Romney also has the edge among independent voters who back him 53 to 43 for the president.
  • Early voting 2012: Poll: Neither has edge – Fifteen percent of registered voters have already cast their ballots, according to a poll released Tuesday.
    Neither candidate has an edge among early voters nationally, the Gallup survey found. One-third of Barack Obama backers plan to vote early, as do 34 percent of Romney supporters. So far, 15 percent of Obama voters have shown up at the polls, compared to 17 percent of Romney voters.
  • Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-10-29 – Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-10-29
  • Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-10-29 – Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-10-29 #tcot
  • My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-10-29 – Locum Tenens (Temporary) Dentist – Gregory Cole, D.D.S. – My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-10-29
  • In U.S., 15% of Registered Voters Have Already Cast Ballots – Gallup: Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots #tcot
  • GetGlue – Your app for TV, Movies, and Sports – Co-watching the World Series of Poker final table. #GetGlue #MondayNightFootball
  • Flap’s Dentistry Blog: Canadian Dentistry Expose: Money Where Your Mouth Is – Canadian Dentistry Expose: Money Where Your Mouth Is
  • CA-26: Julia Brownley Ups Staff Pay While California Budget Deficit Soars – Flap’s Blog – CA-26: Julia Brownley Ups Staff Pay While California Budget Deficit Soars #tcot
  • House elections spell a Republican story and victory– President Obama remains at least an even bet to win reelection. Democrats are favored to hold on to the Senate — an outcome few prognosticators envisioned at the beginning of the year. And yet, with a little more than a week to go, the party holds almost no chance of winning back the House.“They called the fight. It’s over. We’re going to have a House next year that’s going to look an awful lot like the last House,” Stuart Rothenberg, the independent analyst who runs the Rothenberg Political Report, said.The outlines of a comeback for Democrats seemed possible. From its opening act, the 112th Congress was dominated by a raucous class of House freshmen who pushed Washington to the brink of several government shutdowns and almost prompted a first-ever default on the federal debt. It became the most unpopular Congress in the history of polling and, by some measures, the least productive.
  • Changing Demographics Won’t Mean the End of Republican Party– When reading one of the endless stories about a just-released poll Thursday night, a pair of numbers struck my eye: 60 and 37.Those were the percentages of white voters supporting Mitt Romney and Barack Obama in the ABC/Washington Post tracking poll. Overall, the poll showed Romney leading Obama 50 to 47 percent.The reason those two numbers struck my eye is that they are identical to the percentages of white voters supporting Republicans and Democrats in elections for the House of Representatives in the 2010 exit poll. Overall, Republicans won the House popular vote by a margin of 52 to 45 percent, tied with 1994 for the best Republican showing since 1946.In fact, it’s the Republicans’ biggest margin among white voters in House elections ever since the party was formed in 1854. Republican presidential candidates have won by bigger margins among whites only in 1920, 1972 and 1984.

    Some will ascribe this to racism. But Barack Obama won enough votes from whites to win with 53 percent in 2008, more than any other Democratic nominee except Andrew Jackson, Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson.

    Why are whites more one-sidedly partisan than just about ever before? Maybe because they’re constantly being told that they’re headed toward becoming a minority of the electorate. Self-conscious minorities tend to vote more cohesively.

    Or because they’re the objects of racial discrimination in, among other things, university admissions, as documented by Richard Sandler and Stuart Taylor in their recent book, “Mismatch.”

  • Obama’s Independent Problem– President Obama has a problem with independents. And it’s not a small problem.In the last three releases of the tracking poll conducted by The Washington Post and ABC News, Obama has trailed former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney among independent voters by between 16 and 20 percentage points.That’s a striking reversal from 2008, when Obama won independent voters, who made up 29 percent of the electorate, by eight points over Sen. John McCain of Arizona.And if Romney’s large margin among independents holds, it will be a break not just from 2008 but also from 2000 and 2004. In 2000, Texas Gov. George W. Bush won independents by 47 percent to 45 percent over Vice President Al Gore. Four years later, Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts essentially split unaffiliated voters, according to exit polls — 48 percent for Bush to 49 percent for Kerry. (Independents made up 27 percent of the vote in 2000 and 26 percent in 2004.)
  • GOP surprise? Party says Pennsylvania in play– The Republican campaign bus roared into the party headquarters parking lot in this northwestern Pennsylvania town on a chilly afternoon for a rally that had all the trappings of a close contest.Hundreds of people, wearing Romney/Ryan buttons and hats plus one man carrying a “NObama” sign crammed inside the headquarters and cheered loudly as party officials blasted President Barack Obama. Volunteers busily manned telephone banks imploring people to vote.Why the Republican hubbub in a state that’s voted Democratic in presidential elections for two decades? They think it might be in play. Obama leads Romney in Pennsylvania polls by an average of 4.8 percentage points, according to the nonpartisan Web site RealClearPolitics.com. He led by as much as 12 points earlier this year. And he led by 10.8 points at this stage four years ago.
  • Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-10-28 – Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-10-28
  • Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-10-28 – Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-10-28 #tcot
  • My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-10-28 – Locum Tenens (Temporary) Dentist – Gregory Cole, D.D.S. – My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-10-28
  • Photo by owenpaun • Instagram – Congratulations! RT @owenpaun: She said yes! (w/ Nansi Ninova)
  • Gallup daily: Romney leads Obama 50-46 among likely voters– Mitt Romney leads President Obama by 4 points, according to the latest Gallup daily tracking poll, released Sunday.The survey finds Romney at 50 percent support among likely voters to Obama’s 46. The numbers show a 1-point drop over Saturday’s 51 to 46 lead for the GOP nominee.The poll finds Obama up among registered voters, though, with a 48-47 advantage. That figure reflects a 1-point loss for Romney from Saturday, where the two presidential contenders were tied at 48 percent.Gallup’s poll is a rolling seven-day average through Saturday Oct. 27 and includes 5 days of survey data after the third and final presidential debate held last Monday in Boca Raton, Fla.

    The Gallup survey has shown larger leads for Romney compared to other polls of likely voters, with surveys putting Romney ahead by 5 to 7 points for much of last week.

    The Real Clear Politics Average of polls on Sunday showed Romney ahead, but by a slimmer 47.9 percent to 47 margin.

  • Day By Day October 28, 2012 – Call Forward – Flap’s Blog – Day By Day October 28, 2012 – Call Forward #tcot
  • Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-10-27 – Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-10-27
  • Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-10-27 – Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-10-27 #tcot
  • My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-10-27 – Locum Tenens (Temporary) Dentist – Gregory Cole, D.D.S. – My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-10-27
  • Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-10-26 – Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-10-26
  • Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-10-26 – Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-10-26 #tcot
  • My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-10-26 – Locum Tenens (Temporary) Dentist – Gregory Cole, D.D.S. – My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-10-26
  • Political Cartoons / Disgraceful…..but not surprising! – Disgraceful…..but not surprising! via @pinterest #tcot
  • Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-10-25 – Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2012-10-25
  • Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-10-25 – Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2012-10-25 #tcot
  • My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-10-25 – Locum Tenens (Temporary) Dentist – Gregory Cole, D.D.S. – My Daily Twitter Digest for 2012-10-25
  • Capitol Alert: Food labeling initiative Proposition 37 sliding in the polls – Capitol Alert: Food labeling initiative Proposition 37 sliding in the polls #tcot
  • Food labeling initiative Proposition 37 sliding in the polls– Proposition 37, which asks voters to require labels on genetically engineered food sold in California, is dropping in the polls as the well-funded opposition campaign pounds airwaves and mailboxes with arguments against the measure.A USC Dornsife / Los Angeles Times poll released today shows 44 percent of surveyed voters support the initiative, down from 61 percent in September. The same poll shows those opposing it growing from 25 percent to 42 percent.Those results are similar to recent polls released by Pepperdine University and the California Business Round Table, which showed support this month at 48 percent, down from 67 percent in September.The No on 37 campaign has raised $35.6 million, according to MapLight, while the Yes campaign has raised $7.7 million. The opposition is funded largely by companies that make pesticides and genetically modified seeds that contain pesticides. They are running multiple television ads arguing that Proposition 37 would raise grocery prices and that genetically engineered food is safe.

    In response to the polls, the No campaign sent a press release saying, “the more voters know about what Prop 37 would really do, the more they take a dim view of it.”

  • The Morning Flap: October 25, 2012 – Flap’s Blog – The Morning Flap: October 25, 2012 #tcot