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If Pat Buchanan is correct, (it looks like it with Rudy cratering now in Michigan) the GOP in 2008 will go down like George McGovern vs. Richard Nixon in 1972. And, the GOP will lose 5-10 registration points in California.

The GOP promoted the Southern strategy and the Evangelical Christians in – but is it enough anymore to win a national election?

Probably not……

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The Money Quote from Mitt Romney:

“I was taught in my home to honor God and love my neighbor,” Mr. Romney said. “I saw my father march with Martin Luther King. I saw my parents provide compassionate care to others, in personal ways to people nearby, and in just as consequential ways in leading national volunteer movements.”

But, Mitt didn’t – just another LIE from Mitt.

Romney tries to crawl back and explain his GAFFE.

Add this one to the list of Flip-Flops, Lies and Oddities:

• Massachusetts Superior Court Judge Kathe M. Tuttman appointment
• Flip on Abortion
• Campaign finance reform
• Flip on Gay Marriage
• Lied about hunting
• Scientology book one of his favorites
• Poor Mitt’s Dog
• Jay Garrity Trooper Flap
• The Robert Lichfield FLAP
• None of Mitt’s five adult sons had served in the military
• Health Care 2.0 Flip Flop
• PhoneyFred.org Flap
• Tax FLIP
• Log Cabin Ad Flip
• Lawyer’s Test for National Security
• Imaginary Florida Advisers
• NRA Endorsement Lie

Remember:

Update:

And, the Democrats weigh in on Mitt:

Stay tuned…….

Previous:

Mitt Romney Poll Lead in New Hampshire Craters to Surging McCain

Mitt Romney Watch: Romney Attacks Huckabee with False and Misleading Claims

Mitt Romney Watch: Another Mitt Illegal Immigration Gaffe

Mitt Romney Watch: Planned Parenthood Support Plagues Romney Campaign

Mitt Romney Watch: The Mormon Affinity Vote and Iowa Expectations

Romney’s Race to Lose?

Mitt Romney Watch: Romney Should Apologize About NRA Lie

Mitt Romney Watch: Did “The Speech” Solve Romney’s Mormon Problem?

Mitt Romney Watch: “Sanctuary Mansion” Landscapers Fired by Romney

Your comments are welcome below and at My Dental Forum

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Rudy Giuliani leaves Barnes-Jewish Hospital Thursday, Dec. 20, 2007, in St. Louis. The Republican presidential hopeful, who spent the night in the St. Louis hospital with flu-like symptoms, left with a clean bill of health according to his campaign.

Time Magazine screams: Is Giuliani Facing Free Fall?

The answer is no.

But is there evidence to support this opinion? Flap found two excellent pieces today that not only accurately describe the Giuliani campaign’s strategy but also outline scenarios for Rudy’s nomination.

Assessing Giuliani’s Strategy

The most important insight, I think, still holds: delegates matter. And Giuliani is in a position to exit February 5 with the most delegates. For now. His biggest threat remains a Mitt Romney, having won Iowa and New Hampshire and opened his checkbook… which is why, despite the downside risk, the Giuliani campaign is comfortable with Mike Huckabee’s rise.

• Are Mike Huckabee and now John McCain “perfect” foils for Rudy in the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina?
• Are Huck and Mac the Romney stoppers and the absorbers of costly financed negative attacks by Mitt?
• Will these negative media attacks drive them all into unfavorable opinion territory by the middle of January?

Jim Geraghty over at National Review: Giuliani’s Nomination Path – Tougher, But Not Blocked

Under that scenario, nobody’s the frontrunner by the time they get to Florida, which Rudy is still leading right now. Everybody could (and arguably should) have a win under their belts. In addition to each one of his rivals controling a faction of the pie, they’ll probably have higher disapproval numbers, as they will have been the target of attacks for several weeks as Giuliani faded into the background.

Since he surged, Huckabee has been getting much tougher coverage, as any reader of this blog has seen. Romney’s still getting hit from a lot of different directions – his dad and Martin Luther King, his immigration positions, the usual flip-flop charges, etc. If McCain wins New Hampshire, you’ll see him get coverage that’s much tougher. His foes will start reciting immigrationdeal-campaignfinancereform-gangof14-votedagainstBushtaxcuts over and over again. You’ll see every picture he’s ever taken with Ted Kennedy dominating the airwaves. If Fred Thompson surges, he’ll get knocked around, too. And there’s still some possibility of the murder-suicide effect; if any candidate goes too negative on another, the mud splashes on both of them.

So it’s possible that by the time we get to Florida, most of the other Big Five have won only one or two states and has higher negatives from several tough primary battles. Rudy can swoop in, win delegate-rich Florida, and then try to execute his big state Super Duper Tuesday strategy, and pound home, electability, electability, electability…

It’s not a perfect path to the nomination, but right now, no one has one…

And, let’s look at the numbers, particularly the GOP delegates Giuliani would pick up on Super Duper Tuesday and Florida.

Finance co-chairs Roy Bailey and Jim Lee noted in an e-mail to supporters that in the 25 states where polls have been conducted and are scheduled to vote before Feb. 5, Giuliani leads in 13 – far more than any other candidate.
The numbers are important, because with each state victory comes a share of the 1,191 delegate votes a GOP hopeful will need to capture his party’s nomination.

If Giuliani wins all 13 of the primary states where he now leads in the polls and that vote by Feb. 5, he’ll collect 758 delegates, a Daily News analysis found.

That’s roughly two-thirds of the delegates needed to win the nomination, and more than four times the 170 delegates that Giuliani’s closest rival, Huckabee, would amass by Feb. 5 if he wins everywhere he is leading now.

Is the Giuliani strategy one of patience and attrition? You bet.

It may not be a perfect path to the nomination and Rudy will undoubtedly take some hits over the next few days in the polls. But, somehow, Flap thinks that after Christmas this race will start a whole new inning for the Giuliani campaign in their 29 inning game – watch them score.

Stay tuned…..

Rudy Giuliani leaves Barnes-Jewish Hospital Thursday, Dec. 20, 2007, in St. Louis, Mo. The Republican presidential hopeful, who spent the night in the St. Louis hospital with flu-like symptoms, left with a clean bill of health according to his campaign.

Rudy is on his way home and will resume campaign events in New Hampshire tomorrow.

Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani was released from a St. Louis hospital Thursday after undergoing tests for flu-like symptoms and spending the night.

“I feel great. Take care. Merry Christmas, I’m feeling fine thanks to the hospital. They did a good job,” Giuliani said as he left Barnes- Jewish Hospital en route to returning to New York.

The former New York mayor felt the symptoms while campaigning for the nomination in Missouri, and they soon became worse, campaign spokeswoman Katie Levinson said late Wednesday. She did not describe the symptoms beyond those being commonly associated with the flu.

In a statement Thursday, the campaign said doctors had performed a series of precautionary tests and the results were normal.

Giuliani’s wife, Judith, told reporters in New York about the circumstances surrounding his surprise stay in the hospital.
“A decision was made last night when he had a severe headache and flu- like symptoms on his way home from Missouri to land the plane. EMS then performed a small evaluation and decided that for precautionary measures they would take him to Barnes-Jewish Hospital,” she said.

Judith Giuliani said he would have a follow-up visit with his physician.

Giuliani’s Thursday schedule was already clear of public appearances before the unexpected stop in St. Louis.

Mayor Giuliani will be in New Hampshire over the weekend, take two days off for Christmas Eve and Christmas and be back in Florida for three days on the 26th.

Stay tuned……

From a press release:

Statement from Communications Director Katie Levinson

St. Louis – Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee Communications Director Katie Levinson released the following statement today:

“Mayor Giuliani is being released from Barnes Jewish Hospital with a clean bill of health. Doctors performed a series of precautionary tests and the results of all the tests were normal. The Mayor is heading back to New York this afternoon and he continues to be in high spirits.”

Stay tuned……..

Update:

Rudy just walked out of Barnes-Jewish Hospital in St. Louis.  He will resume his campaign schedule tomorrow.

Republican presidential hopeful, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, speaks during a campaign stop Thursday, Dec. 20, 2007, in Indianola, Iowa.

The latest poll out of New Hampshire has Mitt Romney having lost his lead to John McCain and is now tied:

• John McCain 26% (11%, 11-26 thru 11-29)

• Mitt Romney 26% (36%)

• Rudy Giuliani 16% (22%)

• Mike Huckabee 11% (13%)

• Ron Paul 4% (2%)

• Fred Thompson 4% (3%)

• Undecided 10% (12%)

Survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters (484 Republicans and 116 independents) was conducted December 16-19. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Romney has lost ten points while Rudy Giuliani has lost six to Senator McCain and the latest Fox News Poll has McCain within one point in the national GOP lead.

Man, can this Presidential race be more jumbled?

Stay tuned…….

Previous:

Mitt Romney Watch: Romney Attacks Huckabee with False and Misleading Claims

Mitt Romney Watch: Another Mitt Illegal Immigration Gaffe

Mitt Romney Watch: Planned Parenthood Support Plagues Romney Campaign

Mitt Romney Watch: The Mormon Affinity Vote and Iowa Expectations

Romney’s Race to Lose?

Mitt Romney Watch: Romney Should Apologize About NRA Lie

Mitt Romney Watch: Did “The Speech” Solve Romney’s Mormon Problem?

Mitt Romney Watch: “Sanctuary Mansion” Landscapers Fired by Romney

Your comments are welcome below and at My Dental Forum

Follow Flap at Twitter

Rudy Giuliani at his Glendale, California Headquarters Addressing his volunteers, November 13, 2007 in this Flapsblog video

The latest California Field Poll has Rudy Giuliani maintaining a 8 point lead over the surging Mike Huckabee and a ten point lead over third place Mitt Romney.

The Poll:

Now, let’s look at some the subgroup polling stats:

And, let’s look at specific demographic polling data provided exclusively for Capitol Alert of the Sacramento Bee (free registration required):

Mayor Giuliani is maintaining a broad base of support throughout California, despite Mike Huckabee’s national surge. Why is this important?

California selection of GOP delegates is by Congressional District.

Note that Rudy is running especially well in Northern California where Democrat strength is strong, GOP registration weak and where a plurality of votes may be more moderate GOP voters – the Mayor’s natural base.

Here is another demographic breakdown:

Giuliani is also running strong with the Hispanic (second to McCain) and Asian American California voters.

California is still GOLD for Rudy. Mike Huckabee has little if any political organization in California outside the Evangelical Christian churches that form his base of support. Mitt Romney has not taken off here and his Mormon based organization (leading proponents are Mormon Congressional members) appears to have been ineffective at this time.

Stay tuned……

Previous:

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy Hospitalized in Missouri with Flu-Like Symptoms

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Christmas Ad is NOT Believable – But……

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy Still Gold in Florida and California

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy Leading Huckabee By 11 Points in Latest Gallup National GOP Poll