Sixty-four percent of Americans say they have given quite a lot of thought to the 2012 presidential election, a slightly lower percentage than Gallup measured in July of 2004 and 2008. But Americans are much more engaged in the current election than in the 2000 election.
But, Republicans are significantly MORE engaged and MORE likely to vote.
Here is the chart:
This is bad news for President Obama and the national Democratic Party.
With the weekend selection of conservative, Tea Party favorite, Rep. Paul Ryan as Mitt Romney’s Vice Presidential running mate, voter engagement will likely expand and remain high.
The Paul Ryan selection unites the Republican Party and they WILL turn out to vote.
Americans are not as engaged in the 2012 election as they were in the 2004 and 2008 elections at similar points in the campaign, but they do seem to pay more attention to election campaigns than to most news stories.
Republicans currently are more highly engaged in the campaign than Democrats. If that persists, it suggests Republican turnout may be much stronger than Democratic turnout. However, Democrats may not have had as much reason to tune in to the campaign yet, given that most of the news has centered on the Republican nomination. Thought given to the election in September, after the party conventions are held, and in the final stretch of the campaign in October will give a better indication of potential turnout among party groups.