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share save 120 16 President 2012 Polling: The Best National Pollsters

natlpolls vs outcome President 2012 Polling: The Best National Pollsters

Graphic courtesy of John Sides at The Monkey Cage

As you know, I am really into polling since it gives us a scientific method to measure what is happening in the political world.

So, let’s take a look at who did the best.

This list and the graphic above is for the NATIONAL Presidential polls for 2012.

1. PPP (D)
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
3. YouGov
4. Ipsos/Reuters
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Angus-Reid
12. ABC/WP
13. Pew Research
13. Hartford Courant/UConn
15. CNN/ORC
15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal
28. AP/GfK

As everyone, particularly on the right, started criticizing polling models, it drew attention to sampling and methodology. This is a good thing.

Often campaigns use a recently release poll (even if an outlier) to spin a meme of momentum for their candidate or a lack therof for their opponent.

Polling averages like Nate Silver’s and Real Clear Politics help aggregate the myriad of national and state oriented polls. I have found it best to look at the averages and it smooths out the results.

The pollsters WERE pretty accurate – some better than others.

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