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Posts Tagged “Polling”

Santorum1 The Morning Flap: February 22, 2012

These are my links for February 21st through February 22nd:




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Gallup GOP No Brokered Convention President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Republican Voters Dont Want a Brokered Convention

According to the latest Gallup Poll.

Republicans by a better than 2-to-1 margin would prefer that one of the four remaining GOP presidential candidates win enough delegates in the primaries and caucuses to secure the nomination, rather than having a brokered convention that could then choose another person to be the party’s presidential nominee.

Republicans prefer to avoid having the presidential candidate chosen at the convention even though a majority say they wish someone else was running for the party’s nomination. Forty-four percent are pleased with the selection of candidates. These results are based on a Feb. 16-19 USA Today/Gallup poll.

I don’t believe most Republicans even understand the nomination process – just who emerges as the victor.

If a stronger candidate comes out of the convention, which I believe will, than the current field – then so be it.

The current GOP Presidential field is weak and after the first ballot when delegates are released to vote for whomever and state delegations make deals, you may see a stronger candidate emerge.

Whoever wants the nomination and whoever can organize their troops on the convention floor will win.

Anyone want to guess who will emerge?

My bet is Jeb Bush or Sarah Palin.




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Gallup Santorum Leads Romney President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Santorum Leading Romney But Romney Leads in Electability

According to the latest Gallup Poll.

Rick Santorum now holds a 10-percentage-point lead in Gallup’s Daily tracking of national Republicans registered voters’ preferences for the 2012 GOP nomination.

In the Feb. 15-19 Gallup Daily tracking rolling average, Santorum is ahead of Romney by 36% to 26%, with Newt Gingrich at 13% and Ron Paul at 11%. This marks Santorum’s largest lead to date. Santorum had moved to within two points of Romney, 30% to 32%, by the end of last week.

There is a big BUT, however.

Many pundits, including myself think that Rick Santorum will be the Biggest Loser when it comes to running against President Obama.

The Gallup Poll shows that many Republican primary voters think likewise.

Gallup Romney leads electability President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Santorum Leading Romney But Romney Leads in Electability

So, what is the Republican Party to do?

In a separate USA Today/Gallup survey conducted Feb. 16-19, all Americans were asked which of the two candidates — Romney or Santorum — they believed would have the best chance of beating Barack Obama in November. Overall, 54% of Americans named Romney and 29% chose Santorum.

Fewer Republicans are undecided on this issue, leaving 58% who say Romney has the best chance of beating Obama, while 32% choose Santorum.

The next month should tell the tale – so stay tuned…..

Santorum’s leap upward was the direct result of his unexpected victories in the Minnesota, Colorado, and Missouri primaries and caucuses on Feb. 7. There have been no major votes since then, and no debates, but that is about to change. Looming on the horizon are the Feb. 22 GOP debate in Arizona, the Michigan and Arizona primaries on Tuesday, Feb. 28, and then a number of high-profile primaries and caucuses throughout March. Going by the pattern established this year, the results of each event have a good chance of further affecting the relative standing of the GOP candidates in the eyes of Republicans nationally.




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Romney and Santorum2 President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Close Race in Michigan

Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney

A couple of recent polls show a dead heat in Michigan.

We Ask American Poll:

  • Romney – 29%
  • Santorum – 29%
  • Gingrich – 10%
  • Paul – 12%
  • Undecided – 20%

PPP Poll:

The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4. He leads with 37% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 10% for Newt Gingrich.

The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum’s favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.

What we’re seeing in Michigan is a very different story from Florida where Romney surged by effectively destroying his opponent’s image- here Romney’s gains have more to do with building himself up.

Groups Santorum has double digit leads with include Protestants (up 47-30), union members (up 43-23), Evangelicals (up 51-24), Tea Partiers (up 55-20), ‘very conservative’ voters (up 54-23), and men (up 40-28).

Romney is leading the field with women (38-34), seniors (42-34), moderates (35-24), ‘somewhat conservative’ voters (40-34), and Catholics (43-31).

As I have said, if Mitt Romney were to lose Michigan, the state of his youth and family legacy, there will undoubtedly be another candidate who will jump into the race. If Romney wins Michigan by a point or two, then there may also be a challenge.

Take your pick: Mitch Daniels or Jeb Bush.

Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are not polling well in general election match-ups against President Obama. The GOP Establsihment will not stand by and let Santorum and/or Gingrich sink their 2012 prospects.

But, the new candidate will have to move quickly since election deadlines loom in early March.

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Gallup Unemployment rate Poll Watch: U.S. Unemployment Rate Increases to 9.0 Per Cent

According to the latest Gallup Poll.

The U.S. unemployment rate, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 9.0% in mid-February, up from 8.6% for January. The mid-month reading normally reflects what the U.S. government reports for the entire month, and is up from 8.3% in mid-January.

Gallup’s mid-month unemployment reading, based on the 30 days ending Feb. 15, serves as a preliminary estimate of the U.S. government report, and suggests the Bureau of Labor Statistics will likely report on the first Friday of March that its seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased in February. Gallup found that unemployment decreased to 8.3% in its mid-January report, and suggested that the U.S. unemployment rate the BLS reported for January would decline.

Gallup also finds 10.0% of U.S. employees in mid-February are working part time but want full-time work, essentially the same as in January. The mid-February reading means the percentage of Americans who can only find part-time work remains close to its high since Gallup began measuring employment status in January 2010.

Although the past few weeks, the pundits have been spinning that the economy has been improving. America is not out of the woods just yet as far as unemployment.

And, underemployment has increased.
Remember underemployment is a measure that combines the percentage of workers who are unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work.

Gallup Underemployment1 Poll Watch: U.S. Unemployment Rate Increases to 9.0 Per Cent

Now, let’s see what the United States government reports in early March.

But, the trend is upward in the unemployment rate.

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Gallup GOP Presidential tracking President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Santorum 34% Vs. Romney 30% Vs. Gingrich 14% Vs. Paul 11%

Rick Santorum is maintaining his surge in the Gallup Daily tracking poll.

But, is his surge more about Romney?

And, then there is Newt who will do well in the South and apparently has the campaign cash flowing in again.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s faltering campaign is about to get another shot in the arm, CBS News has learned.

Billionaire casino magnate Sheldon Adelson plans to give another $10 million to the outside group backing the former Georgia lawmaker who is running behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, a source close to Adelson told CBS News.

Adleson and his family have already given $11 million to “Winning our Future,” the super PAC backing Gingrich. The group, which bombarded the airwaves in South Carolina last month ahead of the primary there, is largely credited with helping Gingrich win in the Palmetto state.

The latest $10 million cash injection would raise the Adelson family’s contribution to $21 million, and a different source close to Adelson said he is prepared to drop another $4 million for a total of $25 million. The Huffington Post calculated that the billionaire casino owner earns about $3.3 million an hour.


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Presidential tracking poll President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Santorum Takes the Lead in Gallup Tracking Poll

According to the latest Gallup Presidential tracking poll.

Note, that Mitt Romny has pulled even with President Obama in the general election poll.

This polling is within the margin of error, but as the Weekly Standard points out, Rick Santorum has come up a long way.

Rick Santorum, who trailed Mitt Romney by 20 points eight days ago, has now taken the lead in Gallup’s national polling.  In the Gallup poll released on February 8, Romney led Santorum by the tally of 37 to 17 percent. In the current Gallup poll, Santorum has moved into the lead — 32 to 31 percent.

While I do not think Rick Santorum is electable in a general election against President Obama, this result pretty much shows the GOP voters disgust with Mitt Romney.

Super Tuesday will tell the story and my bet now is that the nominee choice will come down to the convention in Florida this summer.

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