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Posts Tagged “Polling”

google plus The Morning Flap Featuring Brett Kimberlin for May 24, 2012linkedin The Morning Flap Featuring Brett Kimberlin for May 24, 2012pinterest The Morning Flap Featuring Brett Kimberlin for May 24, 2012stumbleupon The Morning Flap Featuring Brett Kimberlin for May 24, 2012reader The Morning Flap Featuring Brett Kimberlin for May 24, 2012printfriendly The Morning Flap Featuring Brett Kimberlin for May 24, 2012email The Morning Flap Featuring Brett Kimberlin for May 24, 2012share save 171 16 The Morning Flap Featuring Brett Kimberlin for May 24, 2012

Brett Kimberlin The Morning Flap Featuring Brett Kimberlin for May 24, 2012

Brett Kimberlin

These are my links for May 23rd through May 24th:

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google plus Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Decreases Slightly to 8.2%linkedin Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Decreases Slightly to 8.2%pinterest Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Decreases Slightly to 8.2%stumbleupon Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Decreases Slightly to 8.2%reader Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Decreases Slightly to 8.2%printfriendly Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Decreases Slightly to 8.2%email Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Decreases Slightly to 8.2%share save 171 16 Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Decreases Slightly to 8.2%

Gallup Unemployment2 Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Decreases Slightly to 8.2%

According to the latest Gallup unemployment poll.

U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, declined slightly to 8.2% in mid-May from 8.3% in April. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 8.5% in mid-May, down slightly from 8.6% last month.

These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted over the 30 days of April 16 to May 15, including interviews with 30,236 U.S. adults, 67.5% of whom are active in the workforce. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate incorporates the adjustment used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in the same month of the previous year.

On an unadjusted basis, the mid-May unemployment rate, if sustained the rest of the month, would represent a new monthly low in unemployment since Gallup began tracking it daily in January 2010, down from the previous low of 8.3% recorded last month and from 9.2% last May.

Incorporating the upward seasonal adjustment of 0.3 percentage points that the BLS applied last May yields a seasonally adjusted rate for mid-May of 8.5%. This is substantially higher than the seasonally adjusted monthly low of 7.9% for Gallup’s U.S. unemployment rate in January of this year, but significantly lower than the 9.5% in May 2011.

Nothing earth shattering here with the unemployment rate.

A big drop is what the Democrats and President Obama’s re-election campaign wants, but I do not think this will happen anytime soon.

Underemployment is also down slightly.

Gallup’s U.S. underemployment measure, which combines the unemployed with those working part time but looking for full-time work, is 18.0% in mid-May, compared with 18.2% in April. The underemployment rate declined to as low as 18.0% last July but changed direction in August. It increased to 19.1% in February before plunging to 18.0% in March and 18.2% last month.

So, what this mean?

There is slow American economic growth and American businesses may be holding back because of either the upcoming election or the Supreme Court’s ruling on ObamaCare.

Also, in a warning sign for the government, unemployment numbers may have improved a little, simply due to the fact that long term unemployed people have stopped looking for work.

Moreover, there is also considerable variance of Gallup’s unemployment numbers and those released by the Obama Administration. Go figure.

Gallup’s unemployment measurements now and in April stand in sharp contrast to those the government provided. The BLS reported an April unadjusted unemployment rate of 7.7% and an adjusted unemployment rate of 8.1%. These findings were generally seen as inconsistent with the state of the economy and the findings of the BLS payroll survey. There were not enough jobs created last month — even after the size of the workforce declined — to lower the unemployment rate as much as the government reported.

It is possible that the government’s unemployment numbers for May could revert back to the Gallup trend, as occurred in March and during much of late 2011. Still, there was a considerable gap between Gallup’s results and those of the government in February and April. Regardless, Gallup’s preliminary unemployment numbers for May, based on continuous daily measurement, show a slight improvement compared with April.

google plus Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Decreases Slightly to 8.2%linkedin Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Decreases Slightly to 8.2%pinterest Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Decreases Slightly to 8.2%stumbleupon Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Decreases Slightly to 8.2%reader Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Decreases Slightly to 8.2%printfriendly Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Decreases Slightly to 8.2%email Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Decreases Slightly to 8.2%share save 171 16 Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Decreases Slightly to 8.2%
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google plus The Morning Flap: May 16, 2012 linkedin The Morning Flap: May 16, 2012 pinterest The Morning Flap: May 16, 2012 stumbleupon The Morning Flap: May 16, 2012 reader The Morning Flap: May 16, 2012 printfriendly The Morning Flap: May 16, 2012 email The Morning Flap: May 16, 2012 share save 171 16 The Morning Flap: May 16, 2012

Romney and Obama The Morning Flap: May 16, 2012

These are my links for May 15th through May 16th:

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google plus President 2012 Poll: Romney Leads Obama With Womenlinkedin President 2012 Poll: Romney Leads Obama With Womenpinterest President 2012 Poll: Romney Leads Obama With Womenstumbleupon President 2012 Poll: Romney Leads Obama With Womenreader President 2012 Poll: Romney Leads Obama With Womenprintfriendly President 2012 Poll: Romney Leads Obama With Womenemail President 2012 Poll: Romney Leads Obama With Womenshare save 171 16 President 2012 Poll: Romney Leads Obama With Women

Drudge Romney Leading Obama With Women President 2012 Poll: Romney Leads Obama With WomenThe result comes from the CBS-New York Times Poll about which I posted here.

Here is a more formal post about Mitt Romney’s poll lead.

President Obama’s claim that the GOP is mounting a war on women has proven to be a failure. A month into his assault on the Republicans and Mitt Romney, the new CBS-New York Times poll shows that the GOP presidential candidate now leads among women–and men.

Since April, women have gone from strongly backing Obama to endorsing Romney. In April, Obama held a 49 percent to 43 percent lead among women. That has now flipped to 46 percent backing Romney with 44 percent for Obama, an 8-point switch.

Ironically, Romney’s support among men has dropped, but he still edges Obama 45 percent to 42 percent.

And here’s a surprise: Despite the media hyping the so-called war on women, no major outlet today noticed Romney’s new lead with women voters.

And, I love the Matt Drudge dig…

google plus President 2012 Poll: Romney Leads Obama With Womenlinkedin President 2012 Poll: Romney Leads Obama With Womenpinterest President 2012 Poll: Romney Leads Obama With Womenstumbleupon President 2012 Poll: Romney Leads Obama With Womenreader President 2012 Poll: Romney Leads Obama With Womenprintfriendly President 2012 Poll: Romney Leads Obama With Womenemail President 2012 Poll: Romney Leads Obama With Womenshare save 171 16 President 2012 Poll: Romney Leads Obama With Women
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google plus The Morning Flap: May 15, 2012linkedin The Morning Flap: May 15, 2012pinterest The Morning Flap: May 15, 2012stumbleupon The Morning Flap: May 15, 2012reader The Morning Flap: May 15, 2012printfriendly The Morning Flap: May 15, 2012email The Morning Flap: May 15, 2012share save 171 16 The Morning Flap: May 15, 2012

NYT Poll Biased The Morning Flap: May 15, 2012

These are my links for May 14th through May 15th:

  • Obama campaign: New York Times poll is ‘biased’- Obama campaign deputy manager Stephanie Cutter dismissed today’s CBS/New York Times poll showing that 67 percent of people believed Obama made his decision on gay marriage for political reasons. Only 24 percent said that Obama did it “mostly because he thinks it is right.”Host Chuck Todd asked Cutter about the poll, admitting that the methodology of the poll was different, because it was a callback poll. “Put those caveats aside thats a lot of people saying that he did this for political reasons,” Todd said, noting that it was a 3-1 margin.”We can’t put the methodology of that poll aside, because the methodology was significantly biased.” Cutter insisted on MSNBC this morning.
  • Cell Phone Ban Keeps Obama Fundraisers Secret – In the latest attempt to crack down on potentially embarrassing digital leaks from presidential fundraisers, President Barack Obama’s campaign has begun asking donors attending small fundraisers with the president to turn over their cell phones before entering.
    Pool reporter David Nakamura of the Washington Post reported that at a $35,800 a head fundraiser at the home of Blackstone COO Hamilton “Tony” James in New York City Monday night, the 60 attendees were asked to place their phones in plastic bags by the door.
    An Obama aide called the move it “standard operating procedure,” but veterans of a range of other campaigns said they’d never heard of the practice, which is common in secure White House spaces where there are concerns of espionage, but unknown in contexts in which only political secrets are discussed. The new prevalence of sophisticated audio and recording capacities in mobile devices owned by virtually anyone wealthy enough to write a check to a political campaign, however, has put a new pressure on campaigns concerned with staying on a public message.
    The fundraising sessions are one of the last vestige of privacy for the president outside of the White House, and a rare opportunity for top donors to hear relatively unscripted remarks by the most powerful man in the world, and to ask him questions. Obama’s prepared remarks at the events are open press and covered by a small group of reporters, but the “press pool” is escorted out of the room before the Q&A period.
  • Brace, brace. Dark times ahead as Greece heads for the exit – Mistakenly, they have convinced themselves that it won’t much matter if Greece leaves, and indeed that it might even help resolve the wider crisis to get rid of this persistent thorn in the flesh.
    Bring it on, they mutter callously; it will be a lot worse for them than for us. On one level, this is just bravado. It’s an attempt to put as nonchalant a face as possible on the now apparently inevitable. But they also seem to believe in their validity of their own analysis – that they have indeed used the past two years well, and are now fully prepared for a Greek exit.
    Believe it if you will. The ineptitude to date of the eurozone’s crisis response strongly suggests a different conclusion – both that the likely contagion from an exit has been hugely underestimated, and that by prompting a wider breakup, thereby tipping Europe into depression, it may end up as bad for everyone else as it is for Greece.
    The Greek problem has been consistently misdiagnosed and mismanaged right from the start. First there was the suggestion a year ago from Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy that if Greece didn’t buckle under and agree austerity it might be chucked out. Markets reacted logically by selling bonds in any country that looked vulnerable, thereby making it much harder for all periphery governments to fund themselves.
  • Jerry Brown vs. Chris Christie- In his January 2011 inaugural address, California Gov. Jerry Brown declared it a “time to honestly assess our financial condition and make the tough choices.” Plainly the choices weren’t tough enough: Mr. Brown has just announced that he faces a state budget deficit of $16 billion—nearly twice the $9.2 billion he predicted in January. In Sacramento Monday, he coupled a new round of spending cuts with a call for some hefty new tax hikes.In his own inaugural address back in January 2010, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie also spoke of making tough choices for the people of his state. For his first full budget, Mr. Christie faced a deficit of $10.7 billion—one-third of projected revenues. Not only did Mr. Christie close that deficit without raising taxes, he is now plumping for a 10% across-the-board tax cut.
  • One by One, Obama Targets ’08 Coalition for Boost- President Obama is attempting to shore up the 2008 coalition that helped him achieve a decisive victory over John McCain, but he is doing so in a more piecemeal way this time around.As an incumbent, Obama’s method is to target various constituencies — albeit ones that supported him four years ago — and make the sale with this argument: On the issues they care most about, he has advanced specific policies to help them, programs opposed by the Republican Party and its presumptive nominee, Mitt Romney.
  • How Romney will respond to Obama’s Bain attack -
  • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-05-15 – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-05-15
  • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » CA-26: Democrat Super PAC Spending More for Julia Brownley – CA-26: Democrat Super PAC Spending More for Julia Brownley
  • Paul won’t campaign in any more states – The Hill’s Ballot Box – RT @StevenErtelt: BREAKING: Ron Paul calls it quits. Suspending campaign.
  • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » Scott Walker Leads in New Poll: 52% Vs. 43% – Scott Walker Leads in New Poll: 52% Vs. 43%
  • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » The Morning Flap: May 14, 2012 – The Morning Flap: May 14, 2012
  • The Left Is Getting Clobbered on Twitter- We are in the early stages of the 2012 campaign season, with a lot of battlespace preparation going on. In the skirmishing so far, one perhaps surprising media advantage has become clear: the right is clobbering the left on Twitter.Maybe it’s because Twitter puts a premium on brevity and cleverness. I don’t know. But for some reason, it seems to be a natural medium for conservatives. We saw it when the Hilary Rosen interview (“Ann Romney never worked a day in her life”) prompted a Twitterstorm. We saw it again when #ObamaEatsDogs exploded, and when #Julia blew up in the White House’s face like an exploding cigar. Currently, the White House is promoting #AskMichelle, where loyal Democrats can go to ask the First Lady a question. Only nearly all of the questions have come from conservatives.
  • Flap’s Dentistry Blog: All Smiles Dental Files for Bankruptcy – All Smiles Dental Files for Bankruptcy
  • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » Day By Day May 14, 2012 – Knockout – Day By Day May 14, 2012 – Knockout

google plus The Morning Flap: May 15, 2012linkedin The Morning Flap: May 15, 2012pinterest The Morning Flap: May 15, 2012stumbleupon The Morning Flap: May 15, 2012reader The Morning Flap: May 15, 2012printfriendly The Morning Flap: May 15, 2012email The Morning Flap: May 15, 2012share save 171 16 The Morning Flap: May 15, 2012
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google plus President 2012 Poll: Romney Takes the Lead over Obamalinkedin President 2012 Poll: Romney Takes the Lead over Obamapinterest President 2012 Poll: Romney Takes the Lead over Obamastumbleupon President 2012 Poll: Romney Takes the Lead over Obamareader President 2012 Poll: Romney Takes the Lead over Obamaprintfriendly President 2012 Poll: Romney Takes the Lead over Obamaemail President 2012 Poll: Romney Takes the Lead over Obamashare save 171 16 President 2012 Poll: Romney Takes the Lead over Obama

Obama+and+Romney President 2012 Poll: Romney Takes the Lead over Obama

President Obama and Mitt Romney

According to the latest CBS-New York Times national poll.

Mitt Romney holds a 3 percent lead over President Obama nationally in the latest CBS News-New York Times poll.  Romney took 46 percent in the poll, compared to Obama’s 43 percent. The 3 percent difference is within the poll’s 4 point margin of error.  Obama and Romney were tied at 46 in the same poll conducted last month.

The president’s endorsement of same-sex marriage has dominated the headlines recently, but the poll found the economy will be the most important issue to voters in the fall. Sixty-two percent said the economy was the most important issue, while the deficit was a distant second at 11 percent. Only 7 percent said same-sex marriage was the most important issue in the election. President Obama’s job approval rating has been hovering around break-even, and is at 48 percent approval and 48 disapproval, according to the poll.  Romney continues to lead Obama among independents, 43 to 36, while Obama leads among moderates, 50 to 39.

This is a good poll for Mitt Romney and to be so close to Obama with the campaign barely starting demonstrates the President’s vulnerability. This election is ALL about the economy and jobs and Obama’s pivot to gay marriage has to be viewed as a cynical attempt to change the national discourse.

It hasn’t and it won’t.

Mitt Romney’s campaign has demonstrated a discipline, unlike McCain’s and will stay like a laser beam trained on the economy.

google plus President 2012 Poll: Romney Takes the Lead over Obamalinkedin President 2012 Poll: Romney Takes the Lead over Obamapinterest President 2012 Poll: Romney Takes the Lead over Obamastumbleupon President 2012 Poll: Romney Takes the Lead over Obamareader President 2012 Poll: Romney Takes the Lead over Obamaprintfriendly President 2012 Poll: Romney Takes the Lead over Obamaemail President 2012 Poll: Romney Takes the Lead over Obamashare save 171 16 President 2012 Poll: Romney Takes the Lead over Obama
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google plus The Morning Flap: May 14, 2012linkedin The Morning Flap: May 14, 2012pinterest The Morning Flap: May 14, 2012stumbleupon The Morning Flap: May 14, 2012reader The Morning Flap: May 14, 2012printfriendly The Morning Flap: May 14, 2012email The Morning Flap: May 14, 2012share save 171 16 The Morning Flap: May 14, 2012

Obama the Gay President The Morning Flap: May 14, 2012

These are my links for May 10th through May 14th:

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