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Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE – Senate

cox&forkum06.11.05web

Election Projection has final United States Senate Election 2006 Projections:

ELECTIONPROJECTIONNOVEMBER8

Current: 55 GOP, 44 DEM, 1 IND
Projected: 49 GOP, 49 DEM, 2 IND
DEM +5, GOP -6, IND +1

Election Projection is forecasting a net loss of six Senate seats and loss of GOP control of the Senate. While this is a pessimistic account, I do not forsee any other likely scenario. Here is election Projections summary of the race:

Summary of Senate Races

State Major Candidates Projected Result
Arizona Jon Kyl (R)-inc vs Jim Pederson (D) Mod GOP Hold
California Dianne Feinstein (D)-inc vs Richard Mountjoy (R) Strong DEM Hold
Connecticut Lieberman(I) / Lamont(D) / Schlesinger(R) Mod IND Gain
Delaware Tom Carper (D)-inc vs Jan Ting? (R) Strong DEM Hold
Florida Bill Nelson (D)-inc vs Katherine Harris? (R) Strong DEM Hold
Hawaii Daniel Akaka (D)-inc vs Cynthia Thielen (R) Strong DEM Hold
Indiana Richard Lugar (R)-inc (unopposed) Strong GOP Hold
Maine Olympia Snowe (R)-inc vs Jean Hay Bright (D) Strong GOP Hold
Maryland OPEN: Ben Cardin (D) vs Michael Steele (R) Weak DEM Hold
Massachusetts Ted Kennedy (D)-inc vs Kenneth Chase (R) Strong DEM Hold
Michigan Debbie Stabenow (D)-inc vs Mike Bouchard (R) Mod DEM Hold
Minnesota OPEN: Amy Klobuchar (D) vs Mark Kennedy (R) Strong DEM Hold
Mississippi Trent Lott (R)-inc vs Erik Fleming (D) Strong GOP Hold
Missouri Jim Talent (R)-inc vs Claire McCaskill (D) Weak DEM Gain
Montana Conrad Burns (R)-inc vs Jon Tester (D) Weak DEM Gain
Nebraska Ben Nelson (D)-inc vs Peter Ricketts (R) Strong DEM Hold
Nevada John Ensign (R)-inc vs Jack Carter (D) Mod GOP Hold
New Jersey Robert Menendez (D)-inc vs Tom Kean, Jr. (R) Weak DEM Hold
New Mexico Jeff Bingaman (D)-inc vs Allen McCulloch (R) Strong DEM Hold
New York Hillary Clinton (D)-inc vs John Spencer (R) Strong DEM Hold
North Dakota Kent Conrad (DNL)-inc vs Dwight Grotberg (R) Strong DEM Hold
Ohio Mike DeWine (R)-inc vs Sherrod Brown (D) Mod DEM Gain
Pennsylvania Rick Santorum (R)-inc vs Bob Casey, Jr. (D) Mod DEM Gain
Rhode Island L. Chafee (R)-inc vs S. Whitehouse (D) Weak DEM Gain
Tennessee OPEN: Bob Corker (R) vs Harold Ford, Jr. (D) Weak GOP Hold
Texas Kay Hutchison (R)-inc vs Barbara Radnofsky (D) Strong GOP Hold
Utah Orrin Hatch (R)-inc vs Pete Ashdown (D) Strong GOP Hold
Vermont OPEN: Bernie Sanders (I) vs Richard Tarrant (R) Strong IND Hold
Virginia George Allen (R)-inc vs James Webb, Jr. (D) Weak DEM Gain
Washington Maria Cantwell (D)-inc vs Mike McGavick (R) Mod DEM Hold
West Virginia Robert Byrd (D)-inc vs John Raese (R) Strong DEM Hold
Wisconsin Herb Kohl (D)-inc vs Robert Lorge (R) Strong DEM Hold
Wyoming Craig Thomas (R)-inc vs Dale Groutage (D) Strong GOP Hold
BOLD – party turnover

Race ratings:

  • “Weak” – less than 5%
  • “Mod” – 5% to 15%
  • “Strong” – greater than 15%
  • For projected margins of victory, click here

    The Real Clear Politics Senate Summary chart is here.

    Likely Dem
    Leans Dem
    Toss Up
    Leans GOP
    Likely GOP
    Arizona Kyl (R)* 49.3% vs. Pederson (D) 40.7% | Chart Kyl +8.6%
    Connecticut Lieberman (I) 49.8% vs. Lamont (D) 38.0% | Chart Lieberman +11.8%
    Maryland Steele (R) 45.0% vs. Cardin (D) 48.7% | Chart Cardin +3.7%
    Michigan Bouchard (R) 37.8% vs. Stabenow (D)* 52.3% | Chart Stabenow +14.5%
    Minnesota Kennedy (R) 37.7% vs. Klobuchar (D) 53.0% | Chart Klobuchar +15.3%
    Missouri Talent (R)* 45.3% vs. McCaskill (D) 48.5% | Chart McCaskill +3.2%
    Montana Burns (R)* 45.5% vs. Tester (D) 48.5% | Chart Tester +3.0%
    New Jersey Kean (R) 41.8% vs. Menendez (D)* 48.2% | Chart Menendez +6.4%
    Ohio DeWine (R)* 43.3% vs. Brown (D) 53.3% | Chart Brown +10.0%
    Pennsylvania Santorum (R)* 40.8% vs. Casey (D) 52.3% | Chart Casey +11.5%
    Rhode Island Chafee (R) 43.3% vs. Whitehouse (D) 48.7% | Chart Whitehouse +5.4%
    Tennessee Corker (R) 51.0% vs. Ford (D) 43.6% | Chart Corker +7.4%
    Virginia Allen (R)* 46.8% vs. Webb (D) 48.3% | Chart Webb +1.5%
    Washington McGavick (R) 40.5% vs. Cantwell (D)* 53.8% | Chart Cantwell +13.3%

    The GOP Senate Debacle has arrived. One race change will make the result transfer to GOP control. Flap feels this most likely will occur in either Rhode Island or Montana.

    Stay tuned for House Projections which ARE even more bruising to the GOP later in the evening.

    For election night coverage NZ Bear at Truth Laid Bear has set up an election tracker page here.

    Previous:

    United States House 2006 Election Watch: Rush Limbaugh and the Coming GOP DEBACLE

    Michael Ramirez on the Coming GOP Debacle

    United States House 2006 Election Watch: SEA OF BLUE

    Election 2006 Watch: The Coming Republican DEBACLE


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