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President 2008 Watch: Christian Right Labors for Redemptive ’08 Conservative
Grover Norquist of the Americans for Tax Reform
New York Times: Christian Right Labors to Find ’08 Candidate
A group of influential Christian conservatives and their allies emerged from a private meeting at a Florida resort this month dissatisfied with the Republican presidential field and uncertain where to turn.
The event was a meeting of the Council for National Policy, a secretive club whose few hundred members include Dr. James C. Dobson of Focus on the Family, the Rev. Jerry Falwell of Liberty University and Grover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform. Although little known outside the conservative movement, the council has become a pivotal stop for Republican presidential primary hopefuls, including George W. Bush on the eve of his 1999 primary campaign.
When Rudy Giuliani wraps up the GOP nomination, the KINGMAKERS of the Evangelical Christian Right MIGHT turn to a third party candidate.
The only question is how marginalized and irrelevant will they become. No GOP Senator, Governor or Congressman will foresake their political career to become a GOP spoiler in ’08.
Flap’s bet is that these folks will splinter and divide. Some will covertly support Giuliani and some will support the third party candidate.
Will it matter in the Electoral College of Rudy vs. Hillary?
Probably only in the Red States that are already going GOP against Hillary.
But, guess what? In those states it is winner take all and the electoral votes will go to Rudy in any case.
But, if Rudy were to choose former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee as Vice President, they might find an excuse to support/vote for the “Redemptive SINNER.”
James Dobson of Focus on the Family on John McCain: “I pray that we don’t get stuck with himâ€
So, what will Norquist, Weyrich, Dobson, Falwell, Robertson’s role be in the presidential campaign of 2008?
To drive East and West Coast center-left independent voters to the GOP, of course……
Jerry Falwell – One of the KINGMAKERS of the Christian Right
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Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy Opts Out of Religious Broadcasters Meeting
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Evangelical Richard Land Strikes Back at Rudy
John McCain Watch: James Dobson – Cannot Support John McCain Under ANY Circumstances
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Giuliani Notes: Cook Political Report and RT Strategies Poll
Cook Political Report and RT Strategies
Rudy Giuliani 32%
John McCain 23%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Mitt Romney 10%
George Pataki 4%
Sam Brownback 2%
Tom Tancredo 2%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Mike Huckabee 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Tommy Thompson 1%
Jim Gilmore 1%Another national poll showing the same ol’ result – Rudy Wins.
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Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy vs. Hillary by the Electoral Numbers
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani autographs a poster at the World Ag Expo, Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2007, in Tulare, Calif. Giuliani toured the expo on his latest stop in a trek through California.
Michael Barone U.S. News: Hillary Vs. Rudy
They’re leading in polls for their parties’ nominations, and so I think we have to regard this as the likeliest pairing in the 2008 presidential race, at least for now. Last July, pollster Jay Leve of SurveyUSA did surveys in 50 states and the District of Columbia of several pairings of candidates. You can see the electoral vote results with a few clicks. They show Giuliani ahead of Clinton 354 to 184. I would guess it would be somewhat closer now, and both candidates carried several states by statistically insignificant margins. Premium subscribers can get access to the percentage results in each state and to the demographic breakdown in each state; there are enough respondents to make the latter statistically significant, with the usual caution that the margin of error is significantly greater for subgroups than for the whole state.
I have examined these numbers before in this blog but decided to give them another look.
Barone has an interesting analysis using old data. But, his conclusions are common sense:
Rudy beats Hillary by putting the East and California in play
Notwithstanding any gaffes by Rudy or a sudden shift of the Democrat Party to nominate Obama, the most likely scenario is that Hillary loses in the electoral college either by a lot or by enough – more than Bush win or Kerry loss in 2004.
Barone noted that Rudy was most weak in the Central Valley in California. Note where Hizzoner was last week campaigning: the Central Valley of California.
California has a winner take all primary by congressional district system. Look for the Mayor to campaign hard in most of them and spend many of his primary campaign dollars in media in the many more rural California counties – gearing up for the general election push for 55 electoral votes.
Target states for the Giuliani campaign will be these:
1. California – 55
2. Florida – 27
3. Pennsylvania – 21
4. New York – 31
5. New Jersey – 15
The population of the states vis a vis their electoral college vote ranking is here.
Note that these are BIG media states. A reason why fund raising will be increasingly important to reach the media markets with a saturation of television and radio ads.
Barone’s conclusions:
Upshot: Democrats have some small cause for satisfaction here. Rudy is clearly not as heavily backed as Bush, and voters show more sign of appreciating Hillary’s long southern sojourn than many of us thought. But at best for the Democrats, this puts Arkansas, Louisiana, and West Virginia into play (20 electoral votes) and possibly Virginia (13 electoral votes), while leaving North Carolina and Georgia (30 electoral votes) still out of reach. And Rudy is at least as strong in Florida (27 electoral votes) as Bush was in ’04.
National upshot: Rudy’s electoral vote position against Hillary is much stronger than Bush’s against Kerry. Rudy puts almost the whole East into play and is significantly stronger in several target states in the Midwest and West. Hillary puts some states into play in the South but with many fewer electoral votes than Rudy does elsewhere. Even if you assume that Hillary is stronger against Rudy today than she was in July, the pairing does place the Republicans in a stronger position than Bush was in ’04.
So, the GOP has REAL opportunities to retain the White House with Giuliani. Is it time to annoint Rudy the nominee and move on to fund raising for the general election against Hillary Clinton?
Apparently ……
Previous:Rudy Giuliani Watch: New York Times Tells Rudy How to Campaign
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy Visits with South Carolina Firefighters
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy Opts Out of Religious Broadcasters Meeting
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Evangelical Richard Land Strikes Back at Rudy
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Latest Fox News Poll Shows Rudy with Double Digit Lead Over McCain
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Not Confident Iraq War Will Turn Around
Rudy Giuliani Watch: May 3 Debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Yes, I’m Running
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Day By Day by Chris Muir February 24, 2007
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John McCain Watch: Iraq Could End His Career
Arizona Sen. John McCain listens to a question Friday, Feb. 23, 2007 as he speaks in Seattle. The Republican presidential hopeful was in town to meet with supporters and address a luncheon held by the World Affairs Council and CityClub.
AP: McCain says Iraq could end his career
The state Democratic Party criticized McCain for his support for the war, calling him “worse than Bush” in a statement.
After the speech, McCain was asked by an audience member if he was “sucking up to the religious right.” He drew laughs by responding: “What’s wrong with sucking up to everybody?”
Right on both accounts.
And Senator McCain should plan for retirement…..
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President 2008 Watch: Arnold Schwarzenegger – No Presidential Primary Endorsement
John McCain Watch: The Blame Game
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Giuliani Notes: Official Rudy 2008 Online Store Launches
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Dick Cheney Watch: Australia Hearts the Vice President
And Obama is fighting Cheney like he did with Australian Prime Minister Howard.
Flap knows who will win this fight……
Technorati Tags: DickCheney, BarackObama, JohnHoward, Australia
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Michael Ramirez on the MSM
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Giuliani Notes: GOP Debate Schedule Set
Hotline: Giuliani Accepts First Debate
The Hotline hears that… ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani has accepted his first debate invitation. Appropriately enough, it’s for the May 3 gathering at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.
And the Mayor has declined (along with Senator McCain) a New Hampshire debate on April 4.
Other debates scheduled include:
May 15, 2007 (Columbia, South Carolina), hosted by the South Carolina Republican Party
September 6, 2007 ( New Hampshire), hosted by Fox News
September 27, 2007 (Baltimore, Maryland), hosted by PBS
October 14, 2007 (Manchester, New Hampshire), hosted by ABC
January 22, 2008 or earlier (New Hampshire), hosted by Fox News
February 1, 2008 (Columbia, South Carolina), hosted by the South Carolina Republican Party
Well, if the voters don’t know the candidates by primary election season………..they never will.
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Giuliani Notes: Hugh Hewitt Interview
Hugh Hewitt will play his interview (taped yesterday) with the Mayor today during the first two segments of his radio show – 3 PM PST.
The show and interview may be accessed here.
Update:
The show audio and podcast are here.
The transcript is here.
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