Gay Marriage in Peril in California – California Proposition 8 Heading for Adoption?

A state ballot measure to ban gay marriage in California is gaining momentum, with polls showing almost even odds of it passing after trailing by double digits a month ago.

In June, the state legalized same-sex marriages. The next month, Proposition 8, defining marriage as between a man and a woman, was put on the ballot for November. Initial polling showed that a majority of Californians were likely to vote against Proposition 8. A Sept. 18 poll by the San Francisco-based Field Poll found the measure losing 55% to 38% among likely voters.

But now the measure is favored 48% to 45% among likely voters questioned in an Oct. 17 poll by Survey USA of Verona, N.J. The poll’s margin of error, four percentage points, means the results were a statistical tie.

A group leading the fight against the measure, Equality for All, said this week that one of its internal polls shows Proposition 8 leading by four percentage points. The close results of that poll, too, may suggest a dead heat as the Nov. 4 election approaches.

The media campaign from the Pro Yes on 8 has been relentless and they have lead in fundraising. Evangelical Christian, Mormon (LDS) and Catholic churches have been busy churning up their membership roles and donors.

Plus, it has been suggested that there is a gay marriage “Bradley Effect” in polling and being four points behind may mean ten points behind. Remember the last gay marriage election had the support of 61 % of California voters.

Interesting there is support for Proposition 8 in two large Democrat constituencies – African -Americans and Latinos.

But two Democratic constituencies — African-Americans and Latinos — are leaning toward the ban. Among likely black voters, 58% supported Proposition 8 compared with 38% who opposed it in the most recent Survey USA poll. Among Latinos, 47% supported the proposition while 41% opposed it; white voters were nearly evenly split. The reason, “Yes” officials say, is that church attendance is strong in many minority communities.

Here is the summary of the latest polling:

Stay tuned…..

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