Gay Marriage NOT in Peril in California – California Proposition 8 Heading for Defeat?
The latest California PPIC poll has California’s Proposition 8 being defeated on November 4th.
Proposition 8, a constitutional amendment that would end same-sex marriage in California, is losing among likely voters, 52 percent to 44 percent, according to a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) with funding from The James Irvine Foundation.
Here is a chart of their findings:
The complete polling report is here (PDF file).
Some interesting points about this poll:
- The gap between likely voters in favor and opposed to Proposition 8 (44% yes, 52% no) has narrowed since September (41% yes, 55% no) and August (40% yes, 54% no). Compared to last month, more Republicans (70% today, 62% September) would vote yes on the measure, which would eliminate the right for same-sex couples to marry that the state Supreme Court granted in May. Opposition is 4 points lower among Democrats (67% today, 71% September), but 5 points higher among independents (58% today, 53% September).
- At least half of men, women, Latinos, and whites oppose Proposition 8. Regionally, majorities of likely voters in the San Francisco Bay Area (67%) and Los Angeles (55%) are opposed. But majorities in the Central Valley (54%)and in the “Other Southern California†region that includes Orange, San Diego, Riverside, and San Bernardino Counties (52%) favor the measure.
- On the more general question of how they feel about allowing gay and lesbian couples to legally marry in
California, likely voters are divided, 47 percent in favor and 49 percent opposed. These attitudes are largely unchanged since 2005.
- In an indication of how strong voters’ motivations are to cast their ballots on this measure, supporters of
Proposition 8 are far more likely (69%) than opponents (49%) to say the results are very important.
- The findings in this report are based on a telephone survey of 2,004 California adult residents
interviewed from October 12–19, 2008. Interviewing took place on weekday nights and weekend days,
using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and
unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible.
- We present results for four geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state
population...Residents from other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registeredvoters, and likely voters. Sample sizes for these less populated areas are not large enough to report separately.
Read the complete methodology of the poll on page 29 of the report here.
So, how does this poll differ from the Survey USA Poll Flap reported earlier?
Remember the graphic from the Wall Street Journal:
- PPIC: October 12-19 (Sunday through Sunday)
- Survey USA October 15-16 (Wednesday and Thursday)
Most poll pundits agree that weekend polling is risky at best because so many average or regular voters are not at home and activist types predominate.
Moreover, the YES on Proposition 8 campaign has been bombarding the televison airwaves with very effective ads the past three weeks with little opposition. Both polls note a DEFINITE trend in supporting the measure.
So, what does this all mean?
The California Proposition campaign is indeed a dog fight which will be decided on the last minute media campaign and Get Out the Vote ( GOTV) efforts. Obviously, the NO campaign is worried by sponsoring an emergency Hollywood fundraising effort earlier in the week.
Stay tuned…..
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Technorati Tags: Gay Marriage, Proposition 8, Marriage, Traditional Marriage
8 Comments
John Bisceglia
Here’s what more and more Gay Americans are doing; withholding all federal tax until our FAMILIES and CHILDREN have Marriage Equality.
Our society and its laws treat us as SUB-Americans. Yet they expect us to pay taxes.
R-e-a-l-l-y?
I seriously doubt we will EVER have equality in other areas of life (military, adoption, hate crimes) until the US government starts to treat our families and children AS WORTHY AS other families. How do we expect to enlist in the military openly, adopt children without discrimination, or walk safely out and about in the world if our HOMES, our FAMILIES, are viewed as SUB-human in the eyes of the law?! What is more important than FAMILY?
Is SUB-American OK as a tax-payer? R-e-a-l-l-y?
Flap
Don’t think that argument will fly with the IRS.
Hawaiian Shirts
God made Adam and Eve…not Adam and Steve!
Aneriz
Vote YES on Prop 8.
Protect Marriage
I hope that the millions of voters who voted keeping traditional marriage back in 2000 find redemption this election day. Gays still have the same rights hetero couples do (family code 297.5). That will remain the same, so this is not a civil rights issue at all.
It’s a shame that 4 Supreme court judges took that vote away from the majority of California just back in May of this year.
VOTE YES ON 8 NOT ON HATE
Kim
Hawaiian Shirts,
Nobody’s denying that both a man and woman are necessary for reproduction. So yes, God made both. He also made all of the other living animals in the world, and if you look it up, you’ll find that there are same-sex relationships that occur there as well.
Protect Marriage,
Separate but Equal. That’s in essense what you’re supporting with Prop 8. It is a civil rights issue.
pbj
Sure the rights are “separate,” but that’s by the person’s preference. The question is whether homosexuality deserves to be a protected class, like gender and race, and I for one don’t think so. I don’t find sexual preference to be along the same lines at all. A random genetic predisposition shouldn’t be given special treatment in my book along the same lines as race or gender. So I’m voting Yes on 8, to keep marriage defined the way it was. Equal rights to civil unions already exist, as confirmed by the CA supreme court in the case that started all this (decided on the grounds homosexuality is a protected class).
Fredo
Equal rights to civil unions already exist? Bullshit.
Civil Unions are not at all equal to full marriage, which is precisely why it’s called a “civil union” + not a marriage. It is a lesser, separate, but NOT equal arrangement.
As for the “protected class” nonsense, every person deserves to be protected from discrimination, regardless of their particular sexual orientation. If you don’t like gay marriage, don’t get one.
Vote NO on 8. It’s Unfair + wrong.