Barbara Boxer,  Carly Fiorina

CA-Sen: NRSC Believes The Race is Winnable or Why Would They Bet $3 Million on Carly Fiorina?

National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Ad which will run statewide in California

A pretty obvious conclusion since they are spending the money.

It was the expenditure heard ’round the political world: The GOP is pouring $3 million into the race against Sen. Barbara Boxer on behalf of GOP nominee Carly Fiorina.

The news Monday that the National Republican Senatorial Committee planned to dump that much money into California, this late in the campaign, was enough to cause a double take. The NRSC was already in for $4.8 million in coordinated spending — making the nearly $8 million total expenditure in California the most the committee has publicly committed to any state this year and the most ever in California.

At the heart of the GOP investment is a belief that the race is much closer than Tuesday’s Public Policy Polling survey, which showed Boxer up 52-43, or last week’s Los Angeles Times poll that gave the incumbent an 8-point lead.

“For their turnout model to be accurate, it would have to mean a worse environment for Republicans than 2006,” a GOP operative familiar with the NRSC’s spending plans said of the Times survey. “We have two tracking polls that both show Carly only down 1 point and Boxer below 50, which is a bad place for an incumbent to be after so much spending.”

Recent polling also has convinced the GOP that voters are differentiating between Fiorina and gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman, who appears to be sinking in her race against former Gov. Jerry Brown.

“Carly can win even if Meg doesn’t win,” the operative said.

I, also, feel California voters may very well split their ballot and vote for Jerry Brown, the Democrat but hedge their bets and vote for Fiorina, the Republican. A sort of balancing, as it were. Besides, Carly Fiorina does not have the “Nanny” problem of Whitman and Boxer is, well, an unpopular figure – ma’am, i mean Senator.

There is a throw the bums out mentality even in Left Coast Blue California but voters just can’t vote for Meg – so they vote for Carly instead and send Babs to retirement.

I bet all of the next few polls show Fiorina within the margin of error and Boxer well be below 50 per cent – a disaster for an incumbent.

But, stay tuned as Carly mends from an infection and tries to heal up in time for last minute campaigning.

Anything can happen folks, as this race goes down to the wire.