President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 20% Vs. Gingrich 19% VS. Cain 16% Vs. Paul 10% Vs. Perry 8%
Republicans are most likely to name Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich as their first choice for their party’s 2012 presidential nomination, with Herman Cain close behind. Among all Republicans nationwide, Romney is the choice of 20% and Gingrich 19%. Among Republican registered voters, Gingrich is at 22% and Romney at 21%.
These results are based on a USA Today/Gallup poll of 1,062 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents conducted Nov. 13-17. Compared with the prior poll, conducted Nov. 3-6, Gingrich’s support has increased from 12% to 19% among all Republicans. His support has gone up in each of the last three polls after bottoming out at 4% in August, and is now at his highest for the campaign to date.
Meanwhile, Cain, who has been dogged by allegations of sexual harassment, has seen his support dip slightly, from 21% to 16%. However, it remains well above the levels from earlier this year, which were generally in the single digits.
Although former Speaker Newt Gingrich has risen in the polls as of late, this race continues to be very fluid with no one candidate having any where near a majority. Mitt Romney remains in the 20 per cent range and a host of other GOP candidates are nipping at his heels.
Here is Gallup’s trend graph:
As you can see, Gingrich has risen as Cain and Perry have fallen in the above trend line. However, Perry has the campaign organization and cash to run ads after the first in the nation caucus in Iowa, whereas Gingrich and Cain do not.
Even though Perry is wounded, I think he will contend South Carolina and Florida against Romney. Will Perry emerge as the nominee?
Probably doubtful, but the race is fluid and Romney could stumble.
Here is Gallup’s breakdown by age:
The 2012 Presidential race remains very unpredictable.