Census Watch: California Latino Population Booming

Posted 1 CommentPosted in California, Census, Hispanic Vote

I had posted on this previously here but here are more of the numbers.
California’s Latino population grew nearly three times as much as the state as a whole in the last decade, making the state home to more than a quarter of the nation’s Latinos, according to a new Census Bureau report.

While California’s population grew by 10 percent, the 2010 census found, the Latino growth was 27.6 percent, accounting for more than 90 percent of the state’s overall population gain. Latinos accounted for more than half of the nation’s growth during the decade and now are 16.3 percent of the U.S. population.

Latinos, the census said, now are 37.6 percent of all Californians, up more than five percentage points since 2000. That percentage is exactly the same as that of Texas, with both states trailing only New Mexico, at 46.3 percent.

Many states have seen higher Latino growth rates than California, some nearly 150 percent, such as Alabama and South Carolina.

Latinos now trail non-Latino whites in California by about four percentage points. They are expected to become the state’s largest ethnic group by mid-decade.

This will mean more Hispanic officeholders as the California Redistricting Commission draws new Legislative and Congressional boundaries based on the census. It will also mean the California GOP may shrink further into irrelevancy like New York, Massachusetts and Maryland since the Republican brand has been tarnished by the national party’s postion on illegal immigration.

Flap’s Links and Comments for May 12th on 19:39

Posted 1 CommentPosted in Pinboard Links

These are my links for May 12th from 19:39 to 19:42:

  • The obligatory “still no idea if Mitch Daniels is running for president” post – Remember all those news stories this morning about Mrs. Daniels’s big speech to the Indiana GOP tonight and how it maybe hopefully possibly might finally offer an inkling as to whether the Hoosier Hamlet was ready to jump in?

    Nope:

    At an Indiana GOP dinner featuring first lady Cheri Daniels as keynote speaker, Mitch Daniels spoke for a few minutes — and gave little away about his 2012 plans.

    “This whole business of running for national office … I’m not saying I won’t do it,” he said, talking about how he had planned to go “to some quiet place … [like the] outdoors cable network” after his term as governor was over…

    Cheri Daniels said little that alluded to 2012 in her keynote speech. (Although Daniels fans may want to note that she said: “If Mitch wants me to do something and he thinks the answer’s going to be no, he tells Cindy [Hoye, the executive director of the Indiana State Fair Commission] to ask me.”)

    “Look, just make a decision. It’s time,” grumbled Larry Sabato afterwards.

    =======

    Daniels is running and after the reception he and Cheri received he will soon announce the formation of an exploratory committee.

    Look for it around Memorial Day.

  • Hispanic Students – The Education Crisis Everyone Is Ignoring – Hispanics now constitute 16% of the U.S. population, and the Census Bureau estimates they will account for 30% in 2050. This obviously means the number of Hispanic students in our public schools is increasing as well. From just 2001 to 2008, the percentage of Hispanics in public schools grew from 17% to 21%. In Texas, Hispanics already make up the majority of public school students.

    You'd think those numbers would grab the attention of policymakers and educators and spur action — but you'd be wrong. Our public schools are woefully unprepared to deal with the fastest-growing ethnic group in the U.S. Only 17% of Hispanic fourth-graders score proficient or better on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (a test given to samples of students each year) while 42% of non-Hispanic white students do. Nationally, the high school graduation rate for Hispanics is just 64%, and only 7% of incoming college students are Hispanic, according to the Alliance for Excellent Education.

    These two tectonic issues — our rocketing Hispanic population and the inadequate education of Hispanic students — are on a collision course that could either end in disaster or in another story of successful assimilation in America. The stakes are clear: how we meet this challenge will impact our politics, economy and our society.

    The Hispanic population boom understandably caught some states, communities and educators flat-footed. Places with few, if any, Hispanic students just a few years ago now have sizable populations. This week, the Wall Street Journal reported that in North Carolina 16 of 100 counties are more than 10% Hispanic. Just four were in 2000. In Harrisonburg, Va., a sleepy university town in the Shenandoah Valley, about 40% of students in the city schools are Hispanic English-language learners, a figure that has soared over the past decade.

    Still, the demographic projections are so well known that no one should be surprised.

    =======

    Read it all.

    California is already feeling the budgetary effects and academic performance is very poor.

    One has to wonder where the next generation of California taxpayers are going to come from when very few of the "new" Hispanic majority have the skills or education to work at any high paying jobs.

    California high tech businesses are already moaning about easing VISA restrictions for foreign students to remain in the USA after they finish their educations because there are not sufficient numbers of indigenous highly educated workers.

    The fact is any illegal immigrant amnesty is going to guarantee the Mexican border is secure so that this same dilemma will not present itself again – America will be overrun by the third world if it does.

Census Watch: 2010 Latino Electorate = More Voters and More Non-Voters

Posted 1 CommentPosted in Census, Hispanic Vote


The Pew Hispanic Center has a new report out about Hispanics and the 2010 midterm elections.
More than 6.6 million Latinos voted in last year’s election — a record for a midterm — according to an analysis of new Census Bureau data by the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center.

Latinos also were a larger share of the electorate in 2010 than in any previous midterm election, representing 6.9% of all voters, up from 5.8% in 2006.

Rapid population growth has helped fuel Latinos’ increasing electoral participation. According to the Census Bureau, 50.5 million Hispanics were counted by the 2010 Census, up from 35.3 million in 2000. Over the same decade, the number of Latino eligible voters — adults who are U.S. citizens — also increased, from 13.2 million in 2000 to 21.3 million in 2010.

However, even though more Latinos than ever are participating in the nation’s elections, their representation among the electorate remains below their representation in the general population. In 2010, 16.3% of the nation’s population was Latino, but only 10.1% of eligible voters were Latino and fewer than 7% of voters were Latino.

This gap is driven by two demographic factors — youth and non-citizenship. More than one-third of Latinos (34.9%) are younger than the voting age of 18, a share greater than that of any other group. And an additional 22.4% are of voting age, but are not U.S. citizens.

Read it all.

I think both Democrats and Republicans are cognizant of these demographic changes. The issue of the Hispanic vote will be polarizing short term and the GOP may very well cut their losses and abandon states, like California that have large Democratic Hispanic voters. But, this will gradually change as the Hispanic population ages, and assimilates.

Moreover, I think over the long term the result of the demographic shift will be MORE Hispanic Republican candidates, competing against either Anglo or African-American Democrats.

Flap’s Links and Comments for March 25th on 07:02

Posted Posted in Pinboard Links

These are my links for March 25th from 07:02 to 10:15:

President 2012: Does the GOP Have a Hispanic Voter Problem?

Posted Posted in Census, Hispanic Vote, President 2012

Yes and President Obama will exploit it in 2012.

Hispanic population. Latinos made up half of all U.S. population growth in the past decade, by far the fastest growing group. Hispanics have nearly doubled to make up 16% of the country. We’ve said it here before, and now with the new Census numbers out it’s worth repeating: Latinos are already a serious political force in America and their influence will only get bigger. And that could be problematic for Republicans on a presidential level, because overwhelmingly right now, they prefer Democrats. Obama won Latinos 67%-31% in 2008, and they made up just 9% of the electorate. In the 2010 exit polls, when Republicans swept Democrats out of the U.S. House, Hispanics still preferred Democrats by a similar 64%-34% margin. And they made up just 8% of the electorate. In fact, look at the states out West with large Hispanic populations and how Democrats performed out West vs. the Midwest. In states with high Hispanic populations, Democrats were able to keep their losses to a minimum, holding on to Senate seats in Colorado and Nevada, keeping California fairly blue and holding on to House seats in Arizona they should have lost. As one Republican operative said to us in April 2010: “We have problems, clearly, with Hispanics,” the operative said. “If we do not manage an immigration bill appropriately, and we alienate Hispanics, Obama’s going to run up his numbers in the 70s [with Hispanics]. That is not a sustainable model to win.”

The national GOP will soon have to decide on a strategy to reach out to the growing Hispanic population of voters. It will have to be a multi-faceted voter outreach program, while at the same time isolating the growth of illegal immigration, which in turn results (in a decade or so) more Hispanic voters.

As you can see, this will take some finesse.

Or, the GOP can write off most of the Hispanic vote and try to isolate the effects of their numbers to a few states.

There is danger to the Democrats as well, since too much pandering to African-American and Hispanic voters will label them as the NON-white party.

But, for now, President Obama has the advantage going into 2012 and you won’t be seeing too much GOP Presidential campaigning in California.

California Census 2010: Hispanics RULE

Posted 4 CommentsPosted in California, Census, Illegal Immigration

Well, not really but you get the idea – they have surged in population growth in California.
Latino children for the first time made up a majority of California’s under-18 population in 2010, as Hispanics grew to 37.6% of residents in the nation’s most populous state.

A new U.S. Census report showed the state’s non-Hispanic white population fell 5.4% over the past decade, a continuing trend offset by a 27.8% surge in Hispanics and 30.9% increase in non-Hispanic Asians.

Though in decline, white Californians remained the state’s largest demographic group at 40.1%. But demographers said Hispanics were poised to take the lead.

Underlying the demographic shifts, California grew at its slowest pace in the past decade in more than a century. The population rose 10% to 37.3 million, an increase in line with the national average.

As in California, Hispanics are gaining ground in many other states, such as North Carolina, as whites are on the verge of becoming a minority among all newborn children in the U.S.

What does this mean for California politics when these Hispanic children mature and start to vote? Just as it is now for the very Blue Democratic California – TOUGH.

Since past electoral history has shown a propensity for Hispanics and Latinos to vote anywhere from 60-75% for Democratic Party candidates, the GOP will be at a demographic disadvantage. There are, of course, districts both Congressional and Legislative where their population numbers will not have as great an impact. And, with redistricting by an impartial commission, the GOP will have a chance there.

So, what happened and why did this growth of Hispanics occur?

Easy- the illegal immigrants from Mexico and Central America of the 1980’s to present had children born in the United States as middle-class whites either died or migrated out of the state to Nevada, Arizona or other states like Colorado.

Mr. Frey said the decline of whites and blacks in the decade, as well as the slowdown of Hispanic growth, is partly attributable to more middle-class families leaving pricey California for more affordable places elsewhere. (…)

“I think it’s a middle-class flight,” Mr. Frey said. “California is still very pricey, so to the extent people can get affordable housing they leave.”

But, California is now a no-growth Democratic state which by the way heavily regulates business.

Good luck with solving that California state budget shortfall.

And, the Republicans? They will be a dwindling minority party like in New York, Massachusetts and Maryland.