Tony Strickland’s Lead Shrinks Today in California State Senate Race

According to Flap’s math Republican Tony Strickland continues to lead by 1,164 votes versus 1,390 votes yesterday.

The raw figures:

Santa Barbara County:

• Hannah-Beth Jackson: 73,351 (72,693) (#’s from last Friday) + 658
• Tony Strickland: 58,497 (58,166) + 331

Los Angeles County:

• Hannah-Beth Jackson: 12,193 (12,083) + 110
• Tony Strickland: 16,660 (16,493) + 167

Ventura County:

• Hannah-Beth Jackson: 119,780 [116,730 #’s from yesterday] +3,050 – 52%  ; (115,477) + 1,253
• Tony Strickland: 131,331 [128,507] + 2,824 – 48% ;  (126,922) + 1,585

Tony Strickland’s lead contracted today as returns from Ventura County (provisional ballots) broke for Hannah-Beth Jackson by four points (52-48%). There were an additional 5,874 ballots counted today which should leave around 5,000 or so to be counted.

Flap does not know whether there will be any further updates from either Santa Barbara or Los Angeles County. Also, it is unknown whether Ventura County will update tomorrow – Flap doubts it.

If Los Angeles County and Santa Barbara County are finished and Ventura County ballots break either for Tony Strickland or slightly for Hannah-Beth Jackson (e.g. 52-48%) Strickland wins by over 950 votes.

As, I said before, it is POSSIBLE, but highly UNLIKELY, that Hannah-Beth Jackson can make up a vote deficit of 1,164 with around 5,000 to count.

Stay tuned……..