• Buck McKeon,  CA-25

    Is the Handwriting on the Wall for Rep. Buck McKeon?

    Patricia and Buck McKeon CA 25: FEC Complaint Filed over Buck and Patricia McKeon Mailer

    Rep. Buck McKeon and his wife, Patricia McKeon, a candidate for California Assembly with House Speaker Boehner

    When your top Congressional staff leave the state for another staff position, it is a definite tell. Buck McKeon who in November won easy re-election in his Santa Clarita and very GOP registered district is 74 years old.

    Bob Haueter, former district director to U.S. Rep. Howard “Buck” McKeon, R-Santa Clarita, has been hired to fill the same position for Blake Farenthold, a second-term GOP congressman in Texas.

    Haueter started work Monday in Corpus Christi.

    “(Farenthold) is a nice guy, a great guy, and he offered me an opportunity to do what I know,” Hauter said from his district office on Shoreline Drive, looking out over the Gulf of Mexico. “I’m excited to have the opportunity to serve both him and the constituents of (Texas’) 27th congressional district.”

    The move comes just days after Haueter’s former boss, McKeon, announced he had hired Farenthold’s chief of staff, Alan Tennille, as his chief of staff in Washington.

    The rumor in Ventura County politics is that former California State Senator Tony Strickland who recently lost to Democrat Julia Brownley for a Ventura County based Congressional seat will move into McKeon’s district.

    But, former California Assemblyman Cameron Smyth and recently elected Assemblyman Scott Wilk are both said to be looking at the race.

    Remember it is top two in California – so, when McKeon retires it will be a two Republican primary and general election.

    Who will be the first to throw their hat in the ring?

  • CA-26,  Julia Brownley,  Tony Strickland

    CA-26: How Julia Brownley Defeated Tony Strickland


    I hear that Tony Strickland is being mentioned as running for California State Party chairman.

    UTimm Herdt has an analysis over at the Ventura County Star and some city by city results base on the unofficial results of votes that have been counted.

    The key to winning in any political campaign is for a candidate to maximize his or her base of support while holding down the other in his base. The 26th Congressional District was no exception. An analysis of city-by-city vote results from Tuesday shows that Democrat Julia Brownley did the best job of accomplishing that objective — which is why she defeated Republican Tony Strickland.

    (A complete city-by-city breakdown is at the end of this post.)

    Brownley really ran up the score in Oxnard, winning that city 66 percent to 34 percent in the final unofficial vote count. That 32-point difference was four points better than the city’s Democratic voter registration advantage of 28 percent, meaning that Brownley solidly held the city’s Democratic base and won a sizeable majority of independents.

    Oxnard voters provided Brownley with her entire margin of victory and then some. She carried Oxnard by 12,360 votes; she won districtwide by 7,099.

    I will reserve a more complete analysis until final numbers are released by December 7. But, I think Strickland’s losing campaign mirrors that of his mentor Mitt Romney’s losing Presidential one.

    There are some basic flaws which the Republican Party will have to correct if they wish to win competitive races.

    In a nutshell they are:

    • Candidate selection/recruitment
    • Women
    • Hispanics/Immigration

    While Strickland may have lost a close race, he is not through politically and with better electoral conditions, I foresee him making a comeback either in the California State Senate or in a re-match in CA-26.

  • CA-26,  Julia Brownley,  Tony Strickland

    CA-26: Julia Brownley Ahead of Tony Strickland in Congressional Race

    California Congressional District 26 resultsResults Graphic from Around the Capitol

    But, this race is NOT over since there are a good number of mail-in ballots that were delivered either on election day or via mail a few days prior. There might be up to 20 per cent of the total ballots cast that have not been counted (40K).

    But, Tony Strickland has a steep margin to overcome. It is possible though.

    Ventura and Los Angeles Counties must certify their results by December 7.

    Stay tuned and if there is any movement in the race, I will be sure to post it up.

  • CA-26,  Fran Pavley,  Julia Brownley,  Todd Zink,  Tony Strickland

    CA-26: Early Vote By Mail Report Favoring GOP’s Tony Strickland

    Vote by Mail Report for October 22, 2012Chart Graphic By PoliticalDataInc

    Scott Lay over at The Nooner mentioned Paul Mitchell’s report.

    The report particularly references CA-26 and SD-27 where Republicans Tony Strickland and Todd Zink are in tightly contested races in districts with competitive (nearly equal) party registrations.

    In Ventura County’s two heavily contested races, Republicans ARE turning out to vote by mail. And, turning out like they voted historically in the past two of the three elections.

    In CA-26 (Ventura County based Congressional Election) with Tony Strickland vs. Julia Brownley, Republican voters are at a +4% partisan turnout.

    In SD-27 (California State Senate which may determine whether Democrats win a 2/3’rds majority of the Senate) with Todd Zink vs. Fran Pavley, Republican voters are at a +4% partisan turnout.

    Even, if you consider the other modeling reports, the GOP is plus – at least here in Ventura County.

    Could this mean, greater enthusiasm?

    I think so, as my local friends and colleagues have expressed an increased desire in casual conversation to vote this election. At least, it means Republicans are not discouraged and are turning out to vote, like they have in the past.

    Good news for the Ventura County Republican Party – so far!

  • CA-26,  Julia Brownley,  Tony Strickland

    CA-26: Stalking Continues To Plague Tony Strickland

    Congressional candidate Tony Strickland

    California State Senator and CA-26 Congressional candidate Tony Strickland

    Photo from Facebook

    Republican Congressional candidate Tony Strickland continues to be plagued by either the Democratic Party, Democratic candidate Julia Brownley’s campaign or a SuperPAC aligned with Julia Brownley and the Democratic Party.

    You remember the FLAP from before.

    Well, it continued this Sunday at a campaign event: Celebracion de la Hispanidad

    Here are some photos that were sent to me (note the children playing at the event):

    Tony Strickland Stalker

    Tony Strickland event stalkerAnybody know who this fellow is?

    The police went out and had a few words to say with this guy.

    Tony Strickland event stalkerThis photo stalking has been a recurring issue for the Stricklands and Tony’s Congressional campaign.

    I mean, this really is NOT how we run campaigns in Ventura County – stalking candidates like Paparazzi and intimidating them. You remember the female who was virtually tripping over Tony earlier this summer?

    Strickland Stalker Updated and Confirmed: CA 26: Who is Stalking Tony Strickland?

    With three weeks before the election, does the opposition campaign really need the footage for ads. No, it looks just like harassment and intimidation to me.

    Democrat Julia Brownley should call off the dogs….

  • House Majority PAC,  Tony Strickland

    CA-26: House Majority PAC Goes Up with Negative Tony Strickland Television Ad

    TV Ad Calling Tony Strickland an Ultra Conservative

    House Majority PAC’s Ad – “Stripes”

    Former Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s House Majority PAC is up with a new television spot attacking California State Senator and CA-26 Republican Congressional candidate Tony Strickland for being a what – an “Ultra-Conservative.”

    The problem with the ad is that Tony Strickland is a conservative and so is the Ventura County based 26th Congressional district.

    Here is the breakdown of the CA-26’s demographics.

    Even the Decline to State voters are conservative in this District.

    This ad carries the same old LIBRUL themes: my opponent is an Right-Wing extremist, wants to take abortion away from women, hates stem-cell research and cancer patients and generally is a corrupt corporation supporting miscreant who wants to send YOUR job overseas.

    Don’t think it will work.

    Here is the ad (embedded below):


  • CA-26,  Julia Brownley,  Tony Strickland

    CA-26: Tony Strickland and Julia Brownley to Debate Next Tuesday

    Julia Brownley and Tony Strickland

    CA-26 Congressional candidates Democrat Julia Brownley and Republican Tony Strickland

    This won’t be the first time the two Congressional candidates have faced off against each other at California Lutheran University (CLU). But, here are the details for next Tuesday’s debate which, unlike the forum in May, is one on one.

    The forum will be from 7-9 p.m. at the Lundring Events Center in the Gilbert Sports and Fitness Center at the Thousand Oaks campus. About 200 preticketed audience members will be admitted, and the event will be broadcast live on radio station KCLU. C-SPAN will televise the forum, but a network official said no decision has been made on whether to show it live.

    The forum is co-sponsored by CLU, The Star and Pacific Coast Business Times.

    If you would like a preview of the debate, here is a video when Strickland and Brownley faced off in May, also at CLU.


  • CA-26,  Julia Brownley,  Tony Strickland

    CA-26: “Out of Townley” Julia Brownley Files Specious Complaint with FEC

    California Assemblywoman Julia Brownley speaking

    California Assemblywoman Julia Brownley and Democratic Congressional candidate in CA-26

    Timm Herdt over at the Ventura County Star has the FLAP – and what a specious and idiotic one it is.

    Because separate $2,500 contributions from two New York bankers to Republican congressional candidate Tony Strickland apparently were initially declined by the bankers’ credit card companies, a dispute has arisen over their legality, leading Democrat Julia Brownley on Thursday to file a formal complaint with the Federal Elections Commission.

    Brownley says the donations exceed allowable limits because contributions from Matt Doheny and David Hilty, executives with New York investment firms, were reported as received by Strickland on June 28, after California’s June 5 primary. That election whittled the field in the new 26th Congressional District to Strickland and Brownley.

    How ridiculous with the California economy in the dumper, high unemployment and significant issues to be decided in foreign policy, health care and defense, OUT OF TOWNLEY Julia Brownley has staffers pouring over minutia in campaign finance reports.

    I guess the OUT OF TOWNER and I say that since the California Assemblywoman Brownley moved from her Los Angeles County home in Santa Monica to Oak Park which is in the Congressional District 26 when she filed for election, has nothing better to do with her time but bitch and moan.

    How about some issue discussion, Julia?

    I mean better than your attack ads on television that try to paint California State Senator Tony Strickland as a “hater” of women.

    It is specious and ludicrous complaints like this that dissuade people from the political process. People are tired of the BS.

    Thanks to the commenter at the Ventura County Star with the moniker: “OUT OF TOWNLEY BROWNLEY.”

    I am voting for a full-time Ventura County resident for Congress = Tony Strickland.

  • CA-26,  Julia Brownley,  Tony Strickland

    CA-26: Julia Brownley Begins Television Ads

    Screencap of Julia Brownley ad

    I noticed the ad first this morning on Chuck Todd’s political show on MSNBC. And, it has since repeated.

    The ad looks much like the generic, “get to know who I am ad”, which highlights that she is supported by public employee unions and abortion providers – pretty typical stuff for California Democrats.

    The video has not been posted up on You Tube yet, but I suppose the campaign is just behind. I will post it in an update, when it arrives.

    The ad buy was fairly modest and there were two:

    • August 29 – September 6: 229 spots for about $10K
    • September 7 – September 11: 84 spots for a little over 4K

    You can check out the ad buys for yourself, since they are public. Here is the link to Time Warner Cable which has the vast majority of the Cable TV action here in Ventura County.

    Brownley’s opponent, Republican California State Senator Tony Strickland is already up with television advertising, having beat Brownley “on air.”

  • CA-26,  Julia Brownley,  Tony Strickland

    Updated and Confirmed: CA-26: Who is Stalking Tony Strickland?


    A Tony Strickland staff member has confirmed that this mysterious woman in black has been seen at numerous Strickland events:

    So, who is this woman? And, who is paying her to take the video?

    Anybody know?


    Woman videotaping Tony Strickland

    Unidentified woman in black videotaping California State Senator and GOP Congressional nominee Tony Strickland (in gray t-shirt)

    You remember the FLAP?

    Well, who is tracking and stalking California State Senator and CA-26 Republican congressional candidate Tony Strickland?

    Nobody is admitting it, but the national Democratic Party folks at the DCCC have a reputation of doing it. Now, is Brownley’s campaign paying for the deed?

    Hard to say and it may be difficult to trace, but my best guess is that this activity would not be going on without Brownley’s direct approval.

    Nobody has come forward to identify the young woman and some Democratic activists have taken to Twitter to say that the woman in Thousand Oaks – see her photo below was merely a parent at the children’s event.

    Brownley Spy CA 26: Is Julia Brownley or the DCCC Stalking Tony Strickland?

    Unidentified videographer at California State Senator Tony Strickland Children’s I.D. Event in Thousand Oaks, Saturday August 25, 2012


    You see the woman in the photo above and in this embedded video below was seen videotaping Senator Tony Strickland during his Ventura beach clean-up day on July 28th.

    So, obviously, this woman is either a BIG fan of Tony Strickland, a paid operative of the DCCC or the Julia Brownley campaign or somebody with whom the police maybe wish to have a chat.

    Here is the video of the mysterious woman in black:


    Anyone know this person?

    I understand from good sources that this person has been seen videotaping at other Tony Strickland events. So, if anyone can identify her, please, let me know in the comments below.

    What is the FLAP here – besides the fact that an elected official is being stalked?

    Trackers or videographers are not uncommon in Congressional campaigns today. However, this was a Children’s I.D. Event.

    Yesterday was NOT a Congressional campaign event, but a public service one in conjunction with Strickland’s California State Senate office. Why would the Brownley campaign want to be associated with such an obviously ridiculous observation? And, why involve the children?

    If the Browney campaign was associated with yesterday’s stalker, they should apologize to the families of the children who were videotaped. If the DCCC was involved, then the Brownley campaign should tell them to exert some restraint.

    Julia Brownley may be an LA Woman (from Santa Monica actually), but we don’t do politics like this in Thousand Oaks – because we aren’t LA.

    Hey, California Assemblywoman Julia Brownley, is this person doing some political tracking of Senator Strickland for you? Again, anyone know this woman and for whom she is working?

    Let me know in the comments below.