Audra and Tony Strickland Head to Sacramento as Hannah-Beth Jackson Concedes

Posted 2 CommentsPosted in Audra Strickland, Hannah-Beth Jackson, Tony Strickland
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California Republican Assemblywoman Audra Strickland and her husband Tony, the former Assemblyman and newly elected California Republican State Senator, Camarillo, California September 2008, Photo by Flap

The election is finally over and it sends both Audra and Tony Strickland back to Sacramento.

Less than an eyelash short of an upset marathon victory. Hannah-Beth Jackson reluctantly conceded defeat in the race for the 19th state senate district seat, more than three weeks after Election Day.

“We really thought we could win this,” Jackson told me as she took a break from fixing Thanksgiving dinner for 10. “But I’m going to try to stay involved. I really feel like I have something to offer.”

The Democrat’s loss means that Republican Tony Strickland will be on hand in Sacramento next week to take the oath of office with other newly elected state lawmakers. In the Legislature, Strickland will join his wife, Audra, who represents Ventura County in the 37th Assembly district, in forming one of the Capitol’s new power couples.

Flap watched  the Strickland campaign first hand and they left little to chance. Strickland was relentless in walking precincts, working the phones, burma-shaving the street corners, and running absentee ballot/GOTV operations.

Congrats to Team Strickland for a hard fought campaign in a dramatically Democrat year.

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Tony Strickland Wins California State Senate Race Over Hannah-Beth Jackson


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Tony Strickland Wins California State Senate Race Over Hannah-Beth Jackson

Posted 2 CommentsPosted in Hannah-Beth Jackson, Tony Strickland
+++++Update+++++

From the Strickland campaign observers the count is OVER except for a few hundred votes in Los Angeles County.

Tony Strickland is Senator-elect

Flap had just updated the ballot count in the race for the California State Senate District 19 race and then received this e-mail from Ron Nehring, Chairman of the California Republican Party.

Chairman's Report

Dear Flap,
 
I just got off the phone with California’s newest Republican State Senator, Tony Strickland.
 
BRCThe last significant numbers in this closely contested Senate race just came in, and Tony is the winner in what is likely to be the most expensive State Senate contest in California history.  
 
Tony’s victory is a major accomplishment for the Republican Party, and will have a major impact on the dynamics in the legislature.  As a solid tax-fighter, Tony’s leadership will further strengthen the forces for responsible, fiscally conservative governance in Sacramento.
 
On behalf of the entire California Republican Party I want to extend our congratulations to Tony for his incredible perseverance in this campaign, his wife Assemblymember Audra Strickland, the entire Strickland campaign team, the monitoring team, the county Republican committees in Ventura, Santa Barbara and Los Angeles, and everyone else who contributed to this victory.
 
Thank you for your leadership, and enjoy your Thanksgiving weekend!
 
All the best,
BRC
Ron Nehring
CHAIRMAN, California Republican Party

Perhaps the Strickland Campaign knows how many ballots remain to be counted in Ventura County or that the counting is OVER.

Stay tuned for any further developments.


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Tony Strickland Lead Shrinks Again in California State Senate Race

Posted 2 CommentsPosted in Hannah-Beth Jackson, Tony Strickland
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Former California Assembly Members Tony Strickland and Hannah-Beth Jackson candidates for California State Senate District 19

Los Angeles County, Ventura County and Santa Barbara Elections updated their vote totals today in the California State Senate District 19 race.

According to Flap’s math Republican Tony Strickland continues to lead by 903 votes versus 1,164 votes Tuesday.

The raw figures:

Santa Barbara County:

  • Hannah-Beth Jackson: 73,708 [73,351] + 357 [#’s from Monday]; (72,693) (#’s from last Friday) + 658
  • Tony Strickland: 58,680 [58,497] + 183; (58,166) + 331

Los Angeles County:

  • Hannah-Beth Jackson: 12,342 [12,193]  + 149 [#’s from Monday]; (12,083) + 110
  • Tony Strickland: 16,911 [16,660] + 251; (16,493) + 167

Ventura County:

  • Hannah-Beth Jackson: 120,792 {119,780} {#’s from Tuesday} + 1,012 – 55%; [116,730 #’s from Monday] +3,050 – 52%  ; (115,477) + 1,253
  • Tony Strickland: 132,154 {131,331} + 823 – 45%; [128,507] + 2,824 – 48% ;  (126,922) + 1,585

Los Angeles County again was kind to Tony Strickland while the provisional ballot count in Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties punished his lead.

Flap does not know whether there will be ANY further updates from Santa Barbara or Los Angeles County.

With today’s update in Ventura County there remain around 3,000 provisional ballots to count there.

If those Ventura County provisional ballots were to break  2 to 1 for Hannah- Beth Jackson, the race would be essentally tied, especially if she were to pick up a few votes in Santa Barbara County without an offset in Los Angeles County.

So, what is Flap saying?

The race remains close but everything has to break Jackson’s way for her to win or trigger a meritorious recount challenge. The recount may be coming forthwith, in any case.

Flap agrees with Timm Herdt of the Ventura County Star that it is unlikely that either of these candidates will take the oath of office on Monday when their term of office begins.

Stay tuned as the deadline of December 2 (next Tuesday) approaches for each county to finish up their count and certify the election results.


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Tony Strickland’s Lead Shrinks Today in California State Senate Race

Posted 1 CommentPosted in Hannah-Beth Jackson, Tony Strickland
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Former California Assembly Members Tony Strickland and Hannah-Beth Jackson candidates for California State Senate District 19

Ventura County Elections updated their vote totals today whereas Santa Barbara County and Los Angeles County did not.

According to Flap’s math Republican Tony Strickland continues to lead by 1,164 votes versus 1,390 votes yesterday.

The raw figures:

Santa Barbara County:

  • Hannah-Beth Jackson: 73,351 (72,693) (#’s from last Friday) + 658
  • Tony Strickland: 58,497 (58,166) + 331

Los Angeles County:

  • Hannah-Beth Jackson: 12,193 (12,083) + 110
  • Tony Strickland: 16,660 (16,493) + 167

Ventura County:

  • Hannah-Beth Jackson: 119,780 [116,730 #’s from yesterday] +3,050 – 52%  ; (115,477) + 1,253
  • Tony Strickland: 131,331 [128,507] + 2,824 – 48% ;  (126,922) + 1,585

Tony Strickland’s lead contracted today as returns from Ventura County (provisional ballots) broke for Hannah-Beth Jackson by four points (52-48%). There were an additional 5,874 ballots counted today which should leave around 5,000 or so to be counted.

Flap does not know whether there will be any further updates from either Santa Barbara or Los Angeles County. Also, it is unknown whether Ventura County will update tomorrow – Flap doubts it.

If Los Angeles County and Santa Barbara County are finished and Ventura County ballots break either for Tony Strickland or slightly for Hannah-Beth Jackson (e.g. 52-48%) Strickland wins by over 950 votes.

As, I said before, it is POSSIBLE, but highly UNLIKELY, that Hannah-Beth Jackson can make up a vote deficit of 1,164 with around 5,000 to count.

Stay tuned……..


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Tony Strickland Lead Holding UP in California State Senate Race

Posted 2 CommentsPosted in Hannah-Beth Jackson, Tony Strickland
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Former California Assembly Members Tony Strickland and Hannah-Beth Jackson candidates for California State Senate District 19

Santa Barbara County,Los Angeles County and Ventura County Elections updated their vote totals today.

According to Flap’s math Republican Tony Strickland continues to lead by 1,390 votes versus 1,328 votes on Friday.

The raw figures:

Santa Barbara County:

  • Hannah-Beth Jackson: 73,351 (72,693) (#’s from last Friday) + 658
  • Tony Strickland: 58,497 (58,166) + 331

Los Angeles County:

  • Hannah-Beth Jackson: 12,193 (12,083) + 110
  • Tony Strickland: 16,660 (16,493) + 167

Ventura County:

  • Hannah-Beth Jackson: 116,730 (115,477) + 1,253
  • Tony Strickland: 128,507 (126,922) + 1,585

Tony Strickland today increased his lead in Ventura County by winning 55% of the new votes counted and over 60% in Los Angeles County albiet losing in Santa Barbara County by an almost two to 1 margin.

Since Santa Barbara County elections is close or has completed counting, Flap estimates the election hangs in the balance due to approximately 11,000 uncounted provisional ballots in Ventura County.

It is possible, but unlikely, that Hannah-Beth Jackson can make up the 1,390 votes pluarlity Tony Strickland enjoys.

What does the likely Tony Strickland win mean for the California State Senate?

The Democrats for the first few months of the new session of the California Legislature which begins in December will be at least three short of a 2/3 rds majority to pass a state budget.

Stay tuned…..


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Tony Strickland Continues to Lead in California State Senate Race

Posted 1 CommentPosted in Hannah-Beth Jackson, Tony Strickland
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Former California Assembly Members Tony Strickland and Hannah-Beth Jackson candidates for California State Senate District 19

Santa Barbara County and Los Angeles County Elections updated their vote totals yesterday whereas Ventura County did not for the California State Senate District 19 race.

According to Flap’s math Republican Tony Strickland lead has shrunken to 1,328 votes versus 2,211 votes this past Tuesday.

The raw figures:

Santa Barbara County:

  • Hannah-Beth Jackson: 72,693
  • Tony Strickland: 58,166

Los Angeles County:

  • Hannah-Beth Jackson: 12,083
  • Tony Strickland: 16,493

Ventura County:

  • Hannah-Beth Jackson: 115,477
  • Tony Strickland: 126,922

Timm Herdt of the Ventura County Star:

Although Jackson has closed the gap, nearly all the ballots in her home county, Democratic-leaning Santa Barbara County, have now been tallied. Strickland will hold on to win unless the approximately 14,000 provisional ballots yet to be counted in Ventura County have a strong Democratic tilt.

Elections officials in Ventura County began processing provisional ballots this week but are not expected to release the first results from those ballots until Monday.

In votes tallied thus far, Strickland has about a 5 percentage lead in the Ventura County portion of the district. Jackson would have to at least reverse that advantage among provisional ballots — perhaps unlikely, but something political observers say is possible given that many such ballots are cast by newly registered voters, who this year were predominantly Democrats.

Hannah-Beth Jackson may have reached her high point in this race, much like Charlie Brown did against Tom McClintock in CA-4 before GOP leaning counties put him over the top. Her campaign continues to exude hope but it is an uphill climb for her.

Stay tuned for the continuing saga as Ventura County updates on Monday.


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