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Conejo Valley Republican Women Lunch January 15 2010 065
California U.S. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina addressing the Conejo Valley Republican Women candidate’s luncheon today

Bad news for Democrat California U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer from the Rasmussen polling folks this afternoon.

California Senator Barbara Boxer is now the latest Democratic incumbent to find herself in a tightening race for reelection.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely California voters finds Boxer with narrow leads over her three leading Republican challengers, including newcomer Tom Campbell.

As in much of the country, the story may turn in part on the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats, even though support for it is higher in California than nationally.

In California, 49% favor the health care plan, while 48% oppose it. But as in other states, the emotion is on the side of the opponents: Just 25% of California voters Strongly Favor the plan while 39% Strongly Oppose it.

Perhaps even more significantly, 55% of California voters rate the U.S. economy as poor, while just seven percent (7%) think it’s good or excellent. Golden State voters are evenly divided over whether the economy is improving: 36% say it’s getter better, while 35% say it’s getting worse. Twenty-five percent (25%) believe it’s staying about the same.

“Any incumbent who polls below 50% at this point in the season is considered potentially vulnerable,” noted Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports. “However, vulnerable incumbents still have the power of their office and still have a decent chance of winning. The Democratic leaning political gravity of California will certainly give Senator Boxer a boost in that effort.”

Here are the poll results:

Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is only behind by three points after having announced her candidacy in November 2009. Tom Campbell who until this week was running for California Governor and who has twice before run for the U.S. Senate is behind by 4 points. Chuck DeVore who has been running against Boxer for over a year trails by 6 points.

As Rasmussen points out, this polling is more about Boxer than it is the three GOP challengers. But, the significance of this poll is that for whatever reasons Boxer and the Democrats will have to spend her $6 million campaign war chest in order to defend this seat.

A clear advanatge goes to Carly Fiorina who has amassed campaign cash far in excess of her two competitors. There is little doubt that with a contested seat that she will be able to call upon her national Republican supporters to provide more. And, then there is also her substantial personal wealth which in a close race can always be called upon.

I attended the Conejo Valley Republican Woman candidate’s luncheon today where Carly Fiorina addressed the faithful. I will have more on this later, including my brief interview with Carly.

Stay tuned…….

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3 Responses to “CA-Sen Poll Watch: Barbara Boxer in Trouble for Re-Election in 2010”
  1. […] reports that Senators Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Jim Webb (D-VA) have proposed a bill that would impose a tax on bonuses paid by Wall […]

  2. democratsarefascists says:

    A win-win for Republicans. I like that.

    I’d rather have Devore, though, as he’s more conservative.

  3. Jason says:

    Soon you can call her ma’am I think she’ll earn it.

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