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For now he does, but he is not up by much and there is a long way to go.
In 2008 Barack Obama won nine states and one electoral vote giving Congressional district that had gone to George W. Bush in 2004. We’ve now polled every single one of those over the last three months except for Indiana, where we can’t do one because of restrictions on automated polling in the state. Across 36 horse race match ups against Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, Iowa, Nevada, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District Obama is 36 for 36. If he stood for reelection today against one of the current Republican front runners Obama would almost certainly win the same number of electoral votes he did in 2008, if not more.

I would say that New Hampshire will be in play as well, whereas New Mexico probably will not be.

So, what does the GOP need to do?

Probably field new and better candidates because with the exisiting worn out field of four (Romney, Huckabee, Gingrich, Palin) they will be beaten by Obama in 2012. Or, they can right off the Presidency and concentrate on U.S. Senate and Congressional races and wait until 2016.


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