Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, who formally announced her presidential candidacy Monday in her hometown of Waterloo, Iowa, enters the race with 69% name recognition among Republicans and ties for the highest Positive Intensity Score of any GOP candidate Gallup tracks.
Bachmann finds herself in a relatively positive position among Republicans as she begins her formal campaign. Her name recognition is up to 69% for the two-week period of June 13-26, having climbed from 52% in late February/early March. This places her fifth among the most well-known Republicans Gallup measures, behind Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, and Ron Paul, but well ahead of Tim Pawlenty, Jon Huntsman, and several other competitors. Bachmann’s Positive Intensity Score of 24 ties with Herman Cain’s as the highest such score of any candidate, and is her highest to date. Bachmann’s ability to maintain her relatively high Positive Intensity Score as she has become better known distinguishes her from several of her competitors.
The intensity of the personal attacks and the chatter about Bachmann’s misstatements about John Wayne and John Quincy Adams show the threat she poses to the LEFT and President Obama. They are trying to give Bachmann the same Saul Alinsky type ridicule treatment as they gave to Sarah Palin. I don’t think it will stick as it is a worn out theme.
So, what does this all mean?
Michele Bachmann is in a good position to be the anti-Romney Tea Party candidate. She will run to the RIGHT of the GOP establishment candidate, Romney. The native born Iowan and Minnesota Rep. Bachmann should be able to turn back Mitt Romney in Iowa. In fact, most pundits feel Iowa’s GOP Caucuses are Bachmann’s to lose.
The GOP race next moves to New Hampshire, where Mitt Romney is far ahead in the polls. Then, Nevada where Romney has the advantage.
South Carolina would be the next test for Bachmann. If she survives, then Florida and Super Tuesday.
Now, all of this is predicated on the fact of a non-candidacy of Sarah Palin. Should Sarah enter the race, all bets are off and hold onto your hats.
Two Republican presidential candidates — Bachmann and Cain — stand out significantly above the others in terms of the positive intensity they generate from Republicans who know them. These two candidates have generally received the most positive emotional responses from Republicans all year, and, in the case of Bachmann, this has now manifested itself in strong showings in trial-heat polls conducted in Iowa and an increased national stature.
On the other hand, the images of other candidates who have announced their candidacies have become less rather than more positive. Gingrich, Huntsman, Paul, and Pawlenty all now have lower Positive Intensity Scores than earlier this year, even as they have campaigned more actively.
Romney too has seen his Positive Intensity Score slide slightly in this latest reporting period, and on this dimension he sits well behind Bachmann and Cain — although ahead of most of his other competitors except for the unannounced Palin.