• Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  President 2012

    Video: President 2012 GOP Debate: Newt Gingrich on Immigration

    Bachmann: Newt Soft On Immigration

    Newt Gingrich lost me on this issue. He sounds too much like Senator John McCain and President George W. Bush and their illegal immigrant “Amensty” Plan.

    Also, Gingrich has sold out to the high tech companies who want offshore Graduate Students in science and math to arrange easy immigration visas and Big Agriculture who wants a million guest workers to more cheaply harvest their crops.

    Gingrich’s performance tonight will hurt him in Iowa and look for Michele Bachmann to exploit the issue there.

    Advantage tonight goes to Mitt Romney as Newt Gingrich falters.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry

    President 2012 GOP Florida Poll Watch: Romney 30% Vs. Perry 24% Vs. Gingrich 10%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Rick Perry’s led the Republican field in every Southern state that we’ve polled since he entered the Presidential race…until now.  Mitt Romney continues to lead the way in Florida with 30% to 24% for Perry, 10% for Gingrich, 8% for Ron Paul, 7% for Herman Cain, 6% for Michele Bachmann, 3% for Jon Huntsman, 2% for Rick Santorum, and 1% for Gary Johnson.

    Perry had a poor debate performance in Florida Thursday night and our results suggest that the negative coverage he received from that did hurt him some in the state.  We started this poll on Thursday night before the debate and in those interviews the race was neck and neck with Romney at 33% and Perry at 31%.  But in interviews done Friday-Sunday Romney’s lead expanded to double digits at 29-19.  More telling might be what happened to Perry’s favorability numbers after the debate- on Thursday night he was at 63/23 with Florida Republicans.  Friday-Sunday he was at 48/36.  Perry’s poor performance may or may not prove to be a game changer nationally but it definitely appears to have hurt his image in the key state where it occurred.

    Perry was down in Florida even before the debate though and one thing that may be hurting him is his comments on Social Security. 49% of voters disagree with his ‘Ponzi Scheme’ comments to only 37% who agree and with the folks who dissent from that statement his deficit against Romney goes all the way up to 19 points at 35-16.  It’s also noteworthy that seniors are the age group where Perry faces the biggest deficit to Romney at 34-26.

    Rick Perry was hurt from his Florida debate performance. Perry may not be OUT but he is teetering on the brink.

    If Chris Christie finally decides not to run, then the GOP looks like they will SETTLE for Mitt Romney.

    Also, note that Michele Bachmann is in “free fall” and with today’s Iowa poll one wonders, if she is going to be able to raise sufficient funds to compete there.

  • Barack Obama,  Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama 49% Vs Palin 44%

    According to the latest McClatchy-Marist Poll.

    A new McClatchy-Marist poll finds that Obama looks increasingly vulnerable in next year’s election, with a majority of voters believing he’ll lose to any Republican, a solid plurality saying they’ll definitely vote against him and most potential Republican challengers gaining on him.

    Even in potential matchups where he leads, Obama in most cases has lost ground to the Republican.

    The biggest gain came for Palin, the former Alaska governor who hasn’t yet announced whether she’ll jump into the fast-changing race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

    After trailing Obama by more than 20 percentage points in polls all year, the new national survey, taken Sept. 13-14, found Palin trailing the president by just 5 points, 49-44 percent. The key reason: She now leads Obama among independents, a sharp turnaround.

    The LEFT doesn’t know who to go after: Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney or now, Sarah Palin.

    We will know about Sarah and/or Chris Christie soon – probably a little prior to October 1, when state GOP Parties must tell the Republican National Committee when they will hold their primary elections/caucuses.

    By a margin of 49 percent to 36 percent, voters said they definitely plan to vote against Obama, according to the poll. Independents by 53 percent to 28 percent said they definitely plan to vote against him.

    With that sentiment permeating the electorate a little more than a year before the general election, most Americans think Obama won’t win a second term.

    By 52 percent to 38 percent, voters think he’ll lose to the Republican nominee, whoever that is. Even among Democrats, 31 percent think the Republican nominee will win.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry

    President 2012 GOP South Carolina Poll Watch: Perry 31% Vs. Romney 27% Vs. Bachmann 4%

    According to the latest Winthrop University Poll.

    • When asked about Barack Obama’s job performance as president, 40% of all respondents approved, while 50.7% disapproved. Independents—whom many cite as a key factor in the 2012 election–disapproved by 56.5%.
    • Among Republicans/Republican leaners definitely planning to vote in the GOP Primary, Rick Perry—who entered the race for the GOP nod during an appearance in SC—lead Mitt Romney by 30.5% to 27.3%–within the margin of error.
    • When Republicans/Republican leaners who are definitely planning to vote in the Primary were asked who they thought the eventual 2012 Republican nominee would be—regardless of the one they currently supported—Rick Perry was named most frequently, by 35.4%, while 29.4% chose Mitt Romney.
    • Michele Bachmann is polling back to where she was in Winthrop’s April 2011 Poll, when the two frontrunners—Huckabee and Romney—were chosen by 35.7% of Republicans/Republican leaners definitely planning to vote in the GOP Primary. In the new Winthrop Poll, the two frontrunners (Perry and Romney) collectively hold 57.8% of the support from that group.  In absolute terms this means Bachmann is back to where she started in April. In relative terms, she has slipped.
    • Herman Cain’s numbers, among Republicans/Republican leaners definitely planning to vote in the SC Primary, have gone from 2.1% in the  Winthrop April 2001 Poll to 7.7% in this current poll.
    • Among Republicans/Republican leaners, 67.8% said they did not consider themselves members of the Tea Party movement, but 74.4% of the same group said they generally agree with the Tea Party’s principles.
    • Among Republicans/Republican leaners who are definitely planning on voting in the GOP Primary in SC, 59.9% said that it was more important to select a Republican presidential nominee who matched their beliefs, while 33.5% in this category disagreed, saying it was more important to select a candidate who could beat President Obama in 2012.
    • Among Republicans/Republican leaners, 74.7% feel the term “socialist” describes President Obama very well or well.
    • Among Republicans/Republican leaners, almost 30% believe President Obama is a Muslim.
    • Among Republicans/Republican leaners, 36% continue to believe the president was either probably, or definitely, born in another country. Even though a long-form birth certificate for the president was produced between the Winthrop April 2011 Poll and now—showing he was born in Hawaii—just 5.2% fewer respondents now believe Obama was born outside the country than those back in April (36% now vs. 41.2 % in April).
    • Among Republicans/Republican leaners, 62.4% identify the economy/financial crisis and jobs/ unemployment as the biggest problems facing the U.S.

    It is a Perry Vs. Romney race in South Carolina. Ed Rollins statement yesterday that Michele Bachmann is a one trick pony candidate in Iowa appears to be true.

    Now, how will an endorsement of Senator Jim DeMint and Governor Nikki Haley affect the race?

  • Barack Obama,  Michele Bachmann,  President 2012,  Rick Perry,  Solyndra

    President 2012: Michele Bachmann Compares Rick Perry and HPV Vaccine to President Obama With Solyndra

    Republican presidential candidate Congresswoman Michele Bachmann greets her supporters during a rally for the Orange County Republican Party in Costa Mesa, California September 16, 2011

    Michele Bachman comes out guns a’blazing today in the OC.

    Michele Bachmann, struggling to regain her footing in the GOP presidential contest, Friday assailed rival Rick Perry, saying he abused his power as governor of Texas and rewarded political donors in a manner similar to President Obama.

    “It’s wrong to abuse executive authority with unilateral action, and of course the governor of Texas admitted as much that he made a mistake,” Bachmann said, speaking to reporters after holding a rally in Costa Mesa. “People don’t want a president or a governor making decisions based on political connections. It’s wrong.”

    The Minnesota congresswoman was referring to an executive order signed by Perry requiring that young girls be vaccinated against a sexually transmitted virus that can cause cervical cancer that was made by a company that donated to Perry’s campaigns.

    She compared it to the federal controversy unfolding around Solyndra, a solar equipment maker that received a $535-million federal loan guarantee and which went bankrupt last month. Republicans have suggested that the guarantee was pushed by the White House to reward a major campaign donor with ties to Solyndra’s biggest shareholder, a charge the Obama administration denies.

    Bachmann also sought to tie Perry’s effort, which was ultimately blocked by the Texas Legislature, to Obama’s healthcare law in a Web video and fundraising appeal to supporters in which she dubs his efforts as “Perrycare,” a riff on the “Obamacare” label that some use to describe the president’s healthcare reform package.

    “Whether it’s Obamacare or Perrycare, I oppose any governor or president who mandates a family’s healthcare choices,” Bachmann says in the video. “Especially if the decision-making process occurs behind closed doors, bypassing legislative action, and favors campaign contributors over families.”

    I don’t know if this is going to stick to Rick Perry, but Bachmann who is down in the polls lately will not go quietly. She will address the California Republican Party tonight and then she will appear on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry,  Rudy Giuliani

    President 2102 GOP Poll Watch: Rick Perry Leads But Mitt Romney Gaining in Favorability

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Mitt Romney is the only announced candidate whose Positive Intensity Score has improved significantly in recent weeks. His current 16 is up from 11 in late August and is his highest rating since mid-July, thus narrowing the gap with Perry. Rudy Giuliani, who has yet to decide if he will run, still edges out Romney with an 18.

    Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann have seen significant declines in their Positive Intensity Scores since late August. Palin, who has also not decided whether to run, is down six points, from 16 to 10, and Bachmann is down three points, from 13 to 10. Both women are now at new lows for the year, with Bachmann’s score cut in half since early August.

    Of course, this poll was taken before last night, but shows some movement since the Reagan Presidential Library debate the week prior where the Social Security – Ponzi Scheme Flap reared its ugly head. Interesting that Rudy Giuliani continues to poll better than Mitt Romney.

    With just under five months remaining before Republican primary voters start casting ballots for the 2012 Republican nomination, Perry continues to generate more positive intensity from Republicans who know him than any other announced or potential candidate Gallup tracks. This is particularly notable because Perry has managed to maintain a strong Positive Intensity Score as his recognition among Republicans has expanded from 55% in July to 75% today. Romney, however, remains better known, and has recently seen his sagging Positive Intensity Score rebound, although he still lags significantly behind Perry on this measure.

    The news is not as good for Bachmann, who has lost much of the passionate support she generated as recently as early August. Positive intensity for Palin among national Republicans has also slipped to a new low for the year.

    Republicans’ views of Paul, Gingrich, Santorum, and Huntsman all seem to be in a holding pattern at levels seemingly keeping these men out of serious contention for the nomination. Huntsman does particularly poorly in Republicans’ eyes, and is the only candidate tracked whose Positive Intensity Score is a net negative, meaning that more Republicans who know him have a strongly unfavorable opinion than have a strongly favorable opinion.

    Cain continues to be an anomaly, scoring high in positive intensity among those who know him, yet unable to push his recognition above the 50% level, and scoring low in trial-heat ballot measures.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012,  Rick Perry,  Rick Santorum,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012: CNN/Tea Express GOP Debate Winners and Losers

    David Brody interviews former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum

    After watching last night’s GOP Presidential debate, I am wondering how and where the GOP got to this place with the top two candidates being Rick Perry and Mitt Romney with an assorted supporting cast. The field could use another candidate or two – calling Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels or Representative Paul Ryan – PLEASE RUN.

    The current GOP Presidential field is very weak, each candidate has a track record that can be exploited in the primary elections and by the Democrats in the general election. But, with that said, Sarah Palin has said it is a time for choosing and choose we must.

    Winner: Mitt Romney

    Mitt Romney appeared Presidential, looked good in his skin and his suit was impeccable. Romney shows that he is a cool, calculated character who is not easily rattled. His experience in running for the Presidency these past 6-8 years shows. RomneyCare looms in the background and is very exploitable by the Obama team – they can hardly wait as a matter of fact. But, it might not help Obama and Axelrod with this very poor American economy.

    Romney was able to attack Rick Perry with a smile on his face and the nasty direct mail in his back pocket. The attack television ads, especially in Nevada and Florida are just a few months away. Everyone knows they are coming. The issue will be Social Security and Romney will drive Perry into the ground with the term Ponzi Scheme.

    Biggest Loser: Rick Perry

    Rick Santorum’s quote in the video above is the most telling, “The more I find out about Rick Perry the more concern I have.” This was my feeling and that of the Twitterverse last night. This morning the MSM is piling on Perry.

    The Texas Governor continued his folksy way, but did not answer the Social Security Ponzi Scheme questions. Perry has put forward no entitlement reform plan. Romney attacked the issues and the others piled on.

    The Gardisil, “government injection” flap was devastating to Perry. We all knew it was coming and exploitable, but Michele Bachmann thrust in the knife and Rick Santorum twisted it. Perry made a poor policy decision, and certainly not a one that will endear him to conservatives – or anyone for that matter. Bachmann’s framing of the issue as “crony capitalism” and a pay off from lobbyists will be replayed time and again.

    Next, was the illegal immigration issue and the Texas Dream Act. Perry signed the bill giving the children of illegal aliens an entitlement paid by American citizen taxpayers and was booed by the Tea Party crowd. Immigration is not a primary issue because the GOP controls the House, but conservatives and the Tea Party have to be wondering if this former Al Gore supporter will not be another Bush and/or McCain pushing comprehensive immigration reform. Being booed by the Tea Party is NOT a good thing for Rick Perry.

    None of these single issues are fatal to the Perry campaign, but voters have to be wondering, why is Rick Perry considered the front-runner?

    Losers: All of the rest

    Michele Bachmann did OK and I can see her doing well in Iowa. But, her vision is narrow, has no executive experience and her voice grates on me after a few minutes.

    Jon Huntsman – made wise-ass jokes about Nirvana and immigration (to Perry) and has revealed him as the rich, arrogant ass that he is. Huntsman is through with his Presidential run for this year and all time. Done – put a fork in him.

    All of the rest have NO chance and debate organizers should limit the number of participants to 3 or 4, plus any newcomers.

    Another candidate:

    The GOP Establishment must be scrambling this morning after Rick Perry’s implosion. There are better GOP candidates out there and they should be asked to run. Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, Paul Ryan are all better candidates, than any in the field. Sarah Palin probably won’t run, but she could beat these characters.

    If this is the best field, then you go with Romney, run the Senate races hard and keep your fingers crossed that Obama is so weak that Romney can manage a small win. The GOP will hedge its bets by winning the U.S. Senate and effectively blocking the lame duck Obama.

    I was very disappointed in this debate and am certainly not as optimistic that Obama will be a one term President as I was prior.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012,  Rick Perry

    President 2012: The Reagan Presidential Library Debate – Winners and Losers

    I watched the debate at home and tweeted my comments at the time. Here are my picks.


    Rick Perry: For the first hour or so the Texas Governor did well for the new guy on the block. Perry appeared poised, well rehearsed and prepared. He quite readily mixed it up with Mitt Romney on job creation without getting too nasty. He stumbled during the second part of the debate on the climate change and social security. He is the front-runner in the polls and he did not hurt himself too badly to dislodge the conventional wisdom.

    Mitt Romney:
    Mitt appeared relaxed and Presidential. In contrast to Perry, he appeared the more avuncular choice for President. He made no major gaffes and bettered Perry on illegal immigration and social security. I would not be surprised if he does not pick up a little in the polls after the debate. However, RomneyCare will continue to drag Mitt down.


    Really all of the rest:
    The remaining field do not have the gravitas to be in this race. You can go away now.


    Michele Bachmann:
    She started out of the gate well after the first debate and won the Ames, Iowa Straw Poll. But, where was she last night? She like the others in the field will probably continue in the race. But, why?

    So, there you have it – a two candidate race: Rick Perry Vs. Mitt Romney.

    Take your pick because there is probably not too much difference between either of them. They are both experienced, somewhat conservative Big Business type Republicans, who have some baggage and have flip-flopped on the issues over the years.

    I say end the race, draw straws as to who will be President and team up to beat President Obama, who looks like the walking wounded at this point.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Perry 36% Vs. Romney 17% vs. Bachmann and Paul 10%

    Texas Governor Rick Perry (C) speaks at a media conference in Bastrop, Texas September 5, 2011. An estimated 1,000 homes are being threatened in Bastrop County, just east of Austin, as a 14,000-acre (5700-hectare) wildfire rages out of control, causing evacuations

    According to the latest Politico/George Washington University Battleground Poll.

    The Politico/George Washington University Battleground Poll has Perry atop the field with 36 percent, followed by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 17 percent and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and Texas Rep. Ron Paul tied at 10 percent.

    The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll delivered similar results. Perry is 38 percent of respondent’s first choice for the nomination, followed by Romney at 23 percent, Paul at 9 percent and Bachmann at 8 percent.

    These polls are only the most recent to show Perry out in front of the field. Earlier polls from Gallup, Quinnipiac and CNN/ORC International all show a similar picture of the field.

    Perry, the most recent entrant into the race, announced his run on Aug. 13, the same day that Bachmann won the Ames Straw Poll in the first-in-the-nation caucus state of Iowa.

    Since that high point in her campaign, Bachmann has slipped in the polls.

    Bachmann’s former campaign manager Ed Rollins, who stepped down Monday due to health problems, said Perry’s entrance “took a lot of our momentum.”

    “Legitimately, it’s a Romney-Perry race,” Rollins said. “I think she’s the third candidate at this point in time, which is way different and better than we thought when we started this thing. She’s very much in this thing.”

    The race for the GOP nomination will continue to evolve in September, a month that features three debates, including CNN’s “Tea Party Republican Debate” on Sept. 12 in Tampa Florida.

    The Politico/George Washington University Battleground Poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters over the phone and was conducted between Aug. 28 and Sept. 1. The poll has a sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

    And, remember that tomorrow evening’s GOP Presidential debate will be held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California. This will be the first debate that Rick Perry will mix it up with all of the other candidates. It will be televised on MSNBC starting at 5 PM PDT.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry

    President 2012 GOP Nevada Poll Watch: Perry 29% Vs. Romney 24% Vs. Cain 7% Vs. Paul 6% Vs. Bachmann 6%

    According to the latest Magellan Strategies Poll.

    Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 631 likely 2012 Nevada Republican Presidential caucus attendees.  The survey finds Rick Perry leading Mitt Romney by 5 points.  Among all voters, Rick Perry has 29% support and Mitt Romney has 24% support.  The rest of the Republican field rounds out with Herman Cain with 7%, Michele Bachmann with 6%,  Ron Paul with 6%, Newt Gingrich with 5%, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman with 1% each, the generic “other candidate” with 2%, and 19% are undecided.

    There are 19 per cent undecided here and most pundits have already written off Nevada for Romney due to the large LDS/Mormon population in the state. But, now with surging poll numbers, will Rick Perry come to contest Nevada?

    The media market in Clark County is ripe for a media war and unemployment is the highest in the nation.

    Perry looks like a player in Nevada. But, will he play against Romney?