• Michele Bachmann,  President 2012,  Rick Perry

    President 2012: Rick Perry Strikes Back at Michele Bachmann Ad

    Texas Governor Rick Perry is answering Michele Bachmann’s Super PAC ad now airing in South Carolina.

    From the press release:

    AUSTIN – A committee supporting Michele Bachmann has released a blatantly false ad that completely misrepresents Gov. Perry’s fiscally conservative record in Texas.
    “Gov. Perry is a proven fiscal conservative, having cut taxes, signed six balanced budgets, and led Texas to become America’s top job-creating state,” said Ray Sullivan, RickPerry.org’s communications director. “Congresswoman Bachmann’s front-group ad is patently and provably false. Unlike Washington, the Texas budget is balanced, does not run deficits and limits spending, even as Texas added jobs and population in big numbers.”
    FALSE CLAIM: “Rick Perry doubled spending in a decade.”
    TRUTH: State spending – the non-federal dollars state lawmakers can control – is six percent lower under Gov. Perry than it was under the two-year budget in effect when he took office, adjusting for population growth and inflation. In unadjusted amounts, state spending is $80.5 billion for the 2012-13 biennium compared to $55.7 billion for the 2000-01 biennium. Texas’ population growth plus inflation since 2001 is 54 percent. The current Texas budget funds the state’s vital needs by operating within available revenues and providing tax cuts for small businesses. Gov. Perry is the only Texas governor since World War II to cut state (general revenue) spending.
    FALSE CLAIM: “This year, Rick Perry is spending more money than the state takes in.”
    TRUTH: Texas’ budget has been certified as balanced by the Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, with an estimated $6.5 billion remaining unspent in the state’s Rainy Day Fund. Every budget Gov. Perry has signed has been balanced.
    FALSE CLAIM: “Covering his deficits with record borrowing.”
    TRUTH: Texas does not have a deficit. The state’s recent sale of Tax and Revenue Anticipation Notes (TRANs) is cash-flow management tool that dates back to 1987. These notes are sold every fiscal year to manage cash flow and to provide up-front payments to public schools. They are repaid within the fiscal year with tax revenue that comes in after the upfront school payments are made. Texas earned the highest possible ratings in anticipation of this offering, receiving a rating of SP-1+ by Standard & Poor’s, MIG 1 by Moody’s Investors Service and F1+ by Fitch Inc. Texas’ net interest rate of .27 percent is down from last year’s rate of .34 percent, representing the state’s lowest net rate ever for these notes.

    This ad began running yesterday, so Perry’s response is a little late.

    But, it is apparent as we go into Labor Day weekend, this race is just getting started.

    Let the media fly…..

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Another Poll – Another Rick Perry Lead – Perry 26% Vs. Romney 20% Vs. Bachmann 12%

    According to the latest Quinnipiac Poll.

    Among Republicans and independent voters leaning Republican, Perry gets 24 percent to Romney’s 18 percent, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s 11 percent, Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann’s 10 percent, Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul’s 9 percent and businessman Herman Cain’s 5 percent. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich gets 3 percent, while former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, former Sen. Rick Santorum and Michigan U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter get 1 percent each. 

    If Palin doesn’t run, Perry leads Romney 26 – 20 percent with Bachmann at 12 percent. 

    Romney is viewed favorably by 36 percent, unfavorably by 27 percent – somewhat better than Perry’s split 22 – 23 percent favorable rating, with 55 percent who don’t know enough about him to form an opinion. Among Republicans, however, Perry is 44 – 5 percent favorable, compared to Romney’s 57 – 14 favorable rating. Bachmann is 36 – 26 percent unfavorable among all voters and 50 – 14 percent favorable among Republicans.

    In general election match-ups, Romney is tied with Obama and Obama leads Perry by 3 points.

    Again, this is a national poll and means less than the early GOP states where the race will occur first. 

    The only unknown in this race is whether Sarah Palin will run. Otherwise, it will be Perry as the front-runner Vs. Romney the moderate-establishment candidate.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry,  Rudy Giuliani,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Perry 27% Vs. Romney 14% Vs. Palin 10% Vs. Bachmann and Giuliani 9%

    According to the latest CNN Poll.

    The survey, released Monday, indicates that 27 percent of Republicans nationwide support Perry for their party’s nomination, with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who’s making his second bid for the White House, at 14 percent. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin follows at ten percent, with Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani at nine percent, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who’s making his third bid for the presidency, at six percent. Every one else listed on the questionnaire registered in the low single digits.

    Another national poll, like Gallup, last week that shows Texas Governor Rick Perry as the front-runner.

    The momentum has been clear and it is all Perry. 

    Wonder what Sarah Palin is thinking now?

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry

    President 2012 GOP South Carolina Poll: Rick Perry 31% Vs. Mitt Romney 20% Vs. Michele Bachmann14%

    According to the latest Magellan Strategies survey.

    Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 637 likely 2012 Republican primary voters in South Carolina.  The survey finds Rick Perry leading Mitt Romney by 11 points.  Among all voters, Rick Perry has 31%, Mitt Romney has 20%, and Michele Bachmann is third with 14%.  The rest of the Republican field rounds out with Herman Cain with 9%, Newt Gingrich with 5%, Ron Paul and the “Other Candidate” with 4%, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman with 2%, and 9% undecided.

    Texas Governor Rick Perry has zoomed to the top of the polls. If he can beat Bachmann in Iowa, she may drop out before the South Carolina Primary election. But, then again, if Romney does not win New Hampshire by a substantial margin, he may be dead coming into South Carolina too.

    Remember Republicans like to end their Presidential primaries EARLY.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Rick Perry

    President 2012 GOP Florida Poll Watch: Romney 51% Vs. Obama 43% Or Perry 46% Vs. Obama 45%

    The 2008 Presidential Electoral College Results

    According to the latest Sachs/Masson-Dixon Florida Poll.

    A new Sachs/Mason-Dixon Florida Poll finds Barack Obama trailing Mitt Romney in America’s biggest battleground and in a dead heat with Texas Gov. Rick Perry among Republicans.

    “Unlike 2008, if the election were held today, President Obama would face a stiffer headwind to hold onto Florida and its 29 electoral votes against a top-tier Republican challenger – and that could cost him reelection,” said Ron Sachs, President of Ron Sachs Communications. “Judging by the poll, President Obama’s success in 2008 will be more difficult to duplicate in 2012. The Presidency will go to the candidate with the message that resonates with Florida’s unique and diverse population and the resources to ensure that message is received by voters across the state.”

    Among the findings of the August Sachs/Mason-Dixon Florida Poll:

    • 51 percent of Floridians would vote for Governor Romney compared to 43 percent for President Obama;
    • In a hypothetical matchup with Texas Governor Rick Perry, Perry leads with 46 percent to Obama’s 45 percent
    • President Obama leads Congresswoman Michele Bachmann 46 percent to 44 percent
    • 41 percent of Floridians approve of President Obama’s job performance while 56 percent disapprove. Fifty five percent of independents disapprove

    The GOP Presidential field is looking good in Florida. If they can avoid a messy primary election, then it looks likely for a 29 vote pick up in the Electoral College.

    Here is the primary breakdown:

    • Mitt Romney   28%
    • Rick Perry   21%
    • Michelle Bachman  13%
    • Herman Cain   7%
    • Newt Gingrich  5%
    • Ron Paul   4%
    • Rick Santorum  2%
    • Jon Huntsman    –
    • Someone else 3%
    • Undecided 17%
  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry

    President 2012 GOP Iowa Poll Watch: Perry 24% Bachmann 22% Romney 19%

    According to the latest Magellan Strategies Poll.

    Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 676 likely 2012 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus voters.  The survey finds Rick Perry leading Michele Bachmann by 2 points, a statistical tie.  Among all voters, Rick Perry has 24%, Michele Bachmann has 22% and Mitt Romney is a close third with 19%.  The rest of the Republican field rounds out with Ron Paul with 9%, Herman Cain with 6%, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich with 4%, “Other Candidate” with 3%, Jon Huntsman with 1%, and 8% undecided.

    A pretty close race in Iowa.

    The CW was Iowa = a Michele Bachmann win.

    Looks like Rick Perry will be playing there and may force Romney into a third position.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry,  Rudy Giuliani,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Perry 29% Vs. Romney 17% Paul 13% Bachmann 10% – Perry Now the Front-Runner

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Shortly after announcing his official candidacy, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has emerged as rank-and-file Republicans’ current favorite for their party’s 2012 presidential nomination. Twenty-nine percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationwide say they are most likely to support Perry, with Mitt Romney next, at 17%.

    These results are based on an Aug. 17-21 Gallup poll, the first conducted after several important events in the Republican nomination campaign, including the second candidate debate, the Iowa Straw Poll, and Perry’s official entry into the race after months of speculation.

    Romney and Perry essentially tied for the lead in late July, based on re-computed preferences that include the current field of announced candidates. Gallup’s official July report, based on the announced field at the time and thus excluding Perry, showed Romney with a 27% to 18% lead over Michele Bachmann. Romney enjoyed an even wider, 17-point lead in June over Herman Cain among the field of announced candidates (Gallup did not include Perry among the nominee choices before July).

    Perry’s official announcement may have overshadowed the Aug. 13 Iowa Straw Poll, which Bachmann won narrowly over Ron Paul. Neither candidate appears to have gotten a big boost from the straw poll results; Paul’s support was up slightly from July and Bachmann’s down slightly.

    What about the GOP demographics?

    Perry is a strong contender among key Republican subgroups. Older Republicans and those living in the South show especially strong support for him, at or near 40%. Conservative Republicans strongly favor Perry over Romney, but liberal and moderate Republicans support the two about equally. Perry’s support is also above average among religious Republicans.

    The chart:

    What is most interesting to me is the weakness of Perry and Romney in the East. Is there room in the field for an Eastern based candidate like former New York Governor George Pataki or former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani? And, who would that hurt the most?

    While the eight announced candidates continue to campaign in key early primary and caucus states, Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani are two prominent Republican politicians who have indicated they are still contemplating getting into the race. Palin and Giuliani each receive about 10% of the vote when included in the nomination preference question, with Perry still holding a significant lead over Romney, 25% to 14%, on this measure.

    With them in the race, Perry jumps to an 11 point lead over Romney. Also, remember that Rudy was endorsed by Perry in 2008 and that they are friends.

    The chart:

    So, what does this all mean?

    Texas Governor Rick Perry has vaulted into being the front-runner for the GOP Presidential nomination.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Rick Perry Rises in Recognition and Has a High Positive Intensity Score

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Texas Gov. Rick Perry is now recognized by 67% of Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide, an increase of 13 percentage points from two weeks ago. Still, six of the other nine candidates or potential candidates are better known than Perry, led by Sarah Palin (97%) and Rudy Giuliani (91%). Of the announced candidates, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, and Michele Bachmann are best known.

    The latest results are based on Aug. 8-21 Gallup Daily tracking of 2012 Republican candidate images. Perry officially entered the race on Aug. 13. Prior to that announcement, 54% of Republicans were familiar with him. He is one of two candidates who have seen their recognition levels increase significantly over that time, a period that included the second candidate debate on Aug. 11 and the Iowa Straw Poll on Aug. 13. Bachmann, the winner of that straw poll, saw her recognition score increase five points.

    Good polling news for Governor Perry today. He is leading in the latest Iowa GOP poll and a national poll to be released tomorrow will have him leading nationally overtaking former front-runner Mitt Romney.

    As Perry has become better known over the past two weeks, his Positive Intensity Score has been stable in the low 20s — now 22, compared with 23 two weeks ago. That score is based on the percentage of Republicans familiar with Perry who have a strongly favorable opinion of him minus the percentage with a strongly unfavorable opinion.

    Perry’s Positive Intensity Score is higher than all other Republicans’ except Herman Cain’s. Cain’s 28 — tied with his score from late May/early June — is the highest Gallup has measured for any candidate this year.

    Here is the chart.

    So, what does this mean?

    Texas Governor Rick Perry is off to a good start and now has a target on his back, primarily from Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann. There appears now to be NO front-runner in this race.

    Perry is off to a good start as a now-official candidate, seeing his familiarity among Republicans increase significantly in the last two weeks while maintaining a high Positive Intensity Score. The challenge for him is to keep that score up, now that he is actively campaigning. With that exposure comes the inevitable media scrutiny regarding his issue positions, personal qualities, and record for a broader audience, many of whom may not view them positively.

    To date, Cain and Bachmann are the only candidates who have seen a rise in positive intensity as they became better known, although Bachmann’s scores have declined in recent weeks as her recognition level has surpassed three-quarters of Republicans.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry,  Ron Paul,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 GOP Iowa Poll Watch: Perry 22% Vs. Romney 19% Vs. Bachmann 18% Vs. Paul 16%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    The race is pretty close four ways in Iowa but Rick Perry is the new favorite among Republican voters in the state. Among announced candidates he’s at 22% to 19% for Mitt Romney, 18% for Michele Bachmann, and 16% for Ron Paul. Further back are Herman Cain at 7%, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum at 5%, and Jon Huntsman at 3%.

    If you throw Sarah Palin into the mix the numbers are pretty similar with Perry at 21%, Romney at 18%, Bachmann at 15%, Paul at 12%, and Palin registering at only 10%.

    Looks like Texas Governor Rick Perry has leap frogged over Michele Bachmann to become the anti-Romney candidate. Bachmann is fading even after her Ames Straw Poll win.

    Now, the question is will Sarah Palin jump into this race and if so, how will she play in light of her lower poll numbers? Will Palin even be a player in Iowa?

    The entire poll is here.

  • Barbara Boxer,  Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry,  Ron Paul

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 48% Vs. Obama 46%, Perry 47% Vs. Obama 47%

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    President Barack Obama is closely matched against each of four possible Republican opponents when registered voters are asked whom they would support if the 2012 presidential election were held today. Mitt Romney leads Obama by two percentage points, 48% to 46%, Rick Perry and Obama are tied at 47%, and Obama edges out Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann by two and four points, respectively.

    These prospective election ballots — measured Aug. 17-18, well over a year before the Nov. 6, 2012, election — indicate that the race for president at this point is generally competitive, with voters fairly evenly divided in their preference for giving Obama a second term or electing a Republican candidate. Even though the four Republican candidates tested have varying degrees of name recognition, they all fare roughly the same.

    Gallup’s generic presidential ballot — measured six times this year — shows a close race between Obama and a generic “Republican presidential candidate,” although there have been survey-to-survey variations on this measure, with the Republican candidate leading in June and July.

    This a poor poll for President Obama’s re-election efforts. Just about any GOP Presidential candidate, including Ron Paul are within striking distance.

    Plus, this poses a dilemma of sorts because who does the LEFT attack when any of the candidates that are running for the GOP nomination are in a good position to beat you.

    President Obama is at the moment in a rough parity position when registered voters are asked whether they would vote for him in election matchups against four potential Republican candidates. Romney fares slightly better than the other GOP candidates, and Bachmann slightly worse, but these are not large differences. Gallup research shows that these types of election measures at this stage in the campaign are not highly stable, and one can expect changes in the relative positioning of Obama and various GOP candidates in the months ahead.