Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 702 likely 2012 Pennsylvania general election voters.
The survey finds Barack Obama comfortably leading potential Republican challengers Mitt Romney by 10 points (50% to 40%) and Rick Perry by 15 points (52% to 37%). The President has solid support among voters that overwhelmingly backed him in 2008, including women, voters aged 18 to 34, and self-described moderate voters. It is clear from this survey that those key voting subgroups are still very much with him. Despite this good news for Barack Obama, the mood of these voters is pessimistic, with 62% of women, 64% of self-described moderates, and 54% of voters 18 to 34 feeling things in the country are on the wrong track. It remains to be seen if the eventual Republican nominee can appeal to these voters after the primary.
Pennsylvania is not a key battleground state for the GOP. President Obama handily won Pennyslvania in 2008.
But, should Pennsylvania flip to the Republican Presidential candidate, the path for Obama to 270 Electoral College votes is much more difficult. The party registration in Pennsylvania is 51% Democrat, 37% Republican and 12% Independent/Other.
It seems Pennsylvania is always mentioned as being in play, but a Republican Presidential candidate has not won the state since George H.W. Bush in 1988.