Flap's Blog – FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

Uncomfortable town hall meetings are just the tip of the iceberg for Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter. He now trails Republican Pat Toomey by double digits in his bid for reelection next year and is viewed unfavorably by a majority of the state’s voters.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Pennsylvania voters shows 48% would vote for Toomey if the election were held today. Just 36% would vote for Specter while four percent (4%) prefer a third option, and 12% are not sure.

These figures reflect a dramatic reversal since June. At that time, before the public health care debate began, Specter led Toomey by eleven.

Just 43% now have a favorable opinion of Specter while 54% offer an unfavorable assessment of the longtime GOP senator who became a Democrat rather than face Toomey in a party primary. Those numbers have reversed since June when 53% had a favorable opinion of him.

The current figures include 15% with a Very Favorable opinion of Specter and 36% with a Very Unfavorable view.

And, Republican Pat Toomey is beating left-wing Democrat Congressman Joe Sestak who is challenging Specter in the Democrat primary election.

After watching Specter in action at a health care town hall a couple of days ago, is there any doubt that the near octogenarian may be too old and feeble to succeed in his re-election efforts?

I doubt Specter wins the primary election and Toomey then mops the floor with Sestak.

That’s better than Toomey’s showing in a May 4 poll, in which he trailed Specter by 20 points immediately following Specter’s party switch — a switch Specter decided to make in large part because polls showed Toomey beating him in the GOP primary race.

The numbers and candidates in the Pennsylvania race are still in a state of flux. Former Republican Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge was considered a possible challenger, but he opted not to run earlier this month despite a Quinnipiac survey showing him competitive against Specter in a general election.

Now Toomey is the leading GOP candidate. Another potential Democratic challenger recently dropped out of the race against Specter as well.

And though Rep. Joe Sestak, D-Pa., is expected to challenge Specter in the Democratic primary, the latest Quinnipiac poll shows the lesser known congressman trailing the five-term senator by nearly 30 points.

The GOP must be heartened with this poll since it appears that Rep. Joe Sestak will be running against Specter in a contested Democratic Party primary election. The negatives of this primary campaign undoubtedly will help Toomey who has a clear field now that Tom Ridge has declared he will not be running.

Now, will President Obama who has promised to support Specter for re-election place pressure on Rep. Sestak to withdraw and/or will he campaign directly for the incumbent Senator?

Stay tuned……

After much speculation, former Gov. Tom Ridge today announced that he would not seek the GOP nomination for Senate next year.

In a statement, Ridge said he had been heartened by the support and encouragement he received from within the party and that it had been a difficult decision for him. He expressed a desire to still be involved in the party’s development.

“To those who believe that the Republican Party is facing challenges, they are right,” Ridge said. “To those who believe the Democratic Party is without its own difficulties, they are wrong. No one party has a monopoly on all of the answers. The more important view, in my mind, is that we remember, whether Republican or Democrat, we are foremost Americans. And as Americans, we have always overcome challenges when we put partisanship aside and solutions first.”

Ridge’s decision leaves Republicans Pat Toomey and Peg Luksik as the main candidates in the race. But it also would seem to increase the likelihood that Congressman Jim Gerlach (R-7) and other Republican lawmakers will give the race a serious look.

Tom Ridge who is very popular in Pennsylvania would have been a very good candidate for the Republican Party.

Now, it will be up to former Congressman Pat Toomey who barely lost to Arlen Specter in a GOP primary election six years ago or Congressman Jim Gerlach.

Incumbent Senator Arlen Specter trails former Congressman Pat Toomey by 21 points in an early look at Pennsylvania’s 2010 Republican Primary. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Republican voters statewide say they’d vote for Toomey while just 30% would support Specter.

Specter is viewed favorably by 42% of Pennsylvania Republicans and unfavorably by 55%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state. Those are stunningly poor numbers for a long-term incumbent senator. Specter was first elected to the Senate in 1980.

Toomey, who served in the House from 1999 to 2005, earns positive reviews from 66% and negative comments from just 19%.

Though Specter has been in the Senate for 28 years, he has struggled to maintain grassroots support within his own party during recent years. Six years ago, the incumbent barely survived a primary challenge and defeated the more conservative Toomey by just two points, 51% to 49%. He then went on to win the general election in 2004 by a 53% to 42% margin.

This time around, things could be even more challenging for Specter. He was one of only three Republicans in the Congress to vote for President Obama’s $787 billion stimulus plan. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Pennsylvania Republicans said they were less likely to vote for Specter because of his support for the stimulus package.

In another sign that could be troubling for Specter, the current poll finds that 79% of Pennsylvania Republicans have a favorable opinion of the “Tea Party” protests against big government spending and higher taxes held across the nation last week. Thirty percent (30%) know someone personally who took part. Overall, 82% of Pennsylvania Republicans say that the federal government has too much money and too much power. Just four percent (4%) say it has too little.

Specter leads Toomey by just eight points among moderate Republicans statewide, but Toomey holds a solid advantage among conservative Republicans.

But, the question is can Pat Toomey beat a Democrat?

It may make little difference anyway since Arlen Specter has shown weakness in general election polls.

Stay tuned as it continues to be early in the 2010 election cycle.