Arnold SchwarzeneggerBear Flag LeagueCaliforniaPoliticsProposition 73Proposition 74Proposition 75Proposition 76Proposition 77Proposition 78Special Election 2005

California Special Election Watch: Latest Stanford University-Hoover Institution-Knowledge Networks (S-H-KN) Online Survey

The Hoover Institution has Poll: Race Too Close to Call for Two Schwarzenegger Propositions.

A Stanford University-Hoover Institution-Knowledge Networks (S-H-KN) online survey shows two of the statewide ballot propositions backed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in a statistical dead heat.

Prop. 74 (Teacher Tenure) and Prop. 77 (Redistricting) both split likely California voters right down the middle.

Another Schwarzenegger initiative, Prop. 76 (State Spending and School Funding Limits), is trailing by a wide margin, with 70% of likely California voters saying they will vote against it.

Prop. 75 (Public Employee Union Dues), endorsed by the Governor, currently has a commanding majority, with 70% of likely voters saying they will vote in favor.

This poll has a different methodology than the traditional telephone poll but looks promising for the Governor.

Flap senses that Proposition 75, Paycheck Protection Initiative is poised to win decisively.

Pressure will be on the Join Arnold folks to win 74 and 77, although 77 will be challenged by the Democrats in the courts (remember there is a stayed lawsuit about initiative circulation issues).

While the current numbers are generally consistent with other recent surveys conducted by the Field Poll and the Public Policy Institute of California, the S-H-KN survey indicates that support for both Proposition 74 and Proposition 77 is higher than previously reported. In the S-H-KN poll respondents view a facsimile of the actual ballot on their computer screens and make yes or no vote decisions just as they will do in the upcoming special election. No undecided option is offered, although survey respondents can choose not to vote on a proposition just as voters can in the election. Consistent with S-H-KN polling in the 2003 recall election (see www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp for all materials related to this press release), this methodology resulted in far fewer undecided responses than telephone surveying.

The survey also tracked how the other four initiatives on the November ballot are faring.

The S-H-KN poll has the following for the other propositions:

Prop. 73 (Parental Notification) is currently leading by a margin of 54% to 46%, but this margin is within sampling error of the survey.

Prop. 78 is leading 59% to 41%

Prop. 79 is leading 58% to 42%

Since these are competing initiatives whichever receives the most positive votes wins.

Prop. 80 the final statewide initiative to appear on the November ballot (Electric Service Providers Regulation), currently trails by a wide margin. The poll finds that only 37% of likely voters are currently in favor, with 63% opposed.

The media campaigns are in full swing and Flap has noticed a reduced frequency in the Los Angeles market for big unions’ ads.

Are they out of money?

Will the California Teachers Association mortgage their future and/or be headed toward bankruptcy due to unwise media spending?

Stay tuned.

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Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

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Cross Posted to the SoCal Law Blog

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