CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina Gains in Latest PPIC Poll
California U.S. Senate candidates Tom Campbell, Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore
The Republican primary race for U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer’s seat has tightened since January, when Tom Campbell led both Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore among Republican likely voters (27% Campbell, 16% Fiorina, 8% DeVore). Today, Campbell and Fiorina are in a close race (24% Fiorina, 23% Campbell), and DeVore’s level of support is unchanged (8%). In this campaign—which has seen little advertising—the largest percentage of likely voters (44%) is undecided, similar to January (48%).
In hypothetical November matchups, incumbent Boxer is deadlocked with Campbell (43% to 44%), with 13 percent undecided. A plurality of independents support Campbell (48% Campbell, 32% Boxer, 20% undecided). Since January, support for Boxer has dropped 10 points among independents, and Campbell’s support has increased 11 points. Half of women support Boxer (50% vs. 38% Campbell) and half of men favor Campbell (51% vs. 36% Boxer).
Boxer is in a similarly tight race with Fiorina (44% to 43%), with 13 percent undecided. Among independents, Fiorina leads Boxer (41% Fiorina, 35% Boxer, 24% undecided). Women favor Boxer by 14 points (51% Boxer, 37% Fiorina) and men favor Fiorina by 13 points (49% Fiorina, 36% Boxer).
In a potential race with DeVore, Boxer has a slight lead (46% Boxer, 40% DeVore, 14% undecided). Boxer holds a sizable lead over DeVore among women (53% to 34%) and younger voters (52% to 30%), while DeVore leads among men (47% to 39%).
I will have more comments either later today or tomorrow when I can see more of the cross tabs of the poll. But, the short summary is that Carly Fiorina is pulling up, Tom Campbell is starting to fade and the question is why Chuck DeVore continues in this race with so little support.
And…..Democrat Senator Barabara Boxer is extremely vulnerable.
19 Comments
Ann
I think you are mistaken about so little support the latest Rasmussen poll had all three within the major of err. One Tea Party group is endorsing DeVore on Saturday. Congressman Flake of Arizona endorsed him today. Flake is the crusader for anti-earmarks. He is getting large endorsements from true conservatives and may have even larger endorsements to come that will boost his name for sure. In the N. Bay area people are buzzing about Chuck Devore. IF Fiorina thinks she is gaining, let her. I hope they do underestimate the man.
Flap
In all of the polls I have posted over the many months since Fiorina declared last November, Chuck DeVore has never led. In fact, I do not believe he has ever had more than 10 per cent of the vote against Campbell and Fiorina.
DeVore is running third and a distant third at that in the GOP Primary. He does the worst against Barbara Boxer.
Time for Chuck to withdraw……
Ann
You are looking at Field Polls that are skewed to the left and giving a partial description of him. The Rasmussen poll much more revered has DeVore within 6 pt of Boxer along with Fiorina. Remember the Field poll had Prop 8 losing by 18% percent. We all know what happened there. DeVore will not withdraw. Yesterday he got the endorsement of the anti-earmark crusader, Congressman Jeff Flake of Arizona, and on Saturday receives the endorsement of the Tea Party Express. He will speak at the rally and there will be many people watching. Don’t count him out remember what John Rothmann says:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tn2XDIlbuXc&feature=player_embedded
Flap
The California Field Poll is probably California’s most venerable polling organization. PPIC is a good polling outfit as well and they both have Chuck DeVore way behind in third place.
The Rasmussen Poll is not as recent (March 11) and was not a GOP primary poll. It is here to refresh your memory: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/california/toplines/toplines_2010_california_senate_march_11_2010
I don’t think Jeff Flake or the Tea Party Express will help DeVore raise the millions that will be needed to advertise in the coming weeks. In fact, word on the street is that DeVore’s campaign coffers are near empty.
Jim
I think it is a mistake to look at poll results at this point. The only poll that counts, as they say, is on election day. What we should be considering is which candidate will make the best U.S. Senator. In my opinion, the best candidate is Chuck Devore. Chuck has a proven record in the California Assembly. He has gotten a 100% rating from the California Taxpayers’ Association for the last five years on Budget Spending and Tax issues. He has gotten a 96% rating or better from the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers’ Association. Carly Fiorina has no voting record so we don’t really know what she would do if elected Senator.
The most responsible thing to do in this race is to vote for the person that best represents the values of the voter and let the election polls take care of themselves. Polls are generally a reflection of whoever does the most advertising or gets the most press coverage. I won’t let money or the press make my decisions for me.
Eric
I have to say that I agree with Jim. What would be most informative is a discussion focusing on how the three candidates are approaching the issues as opposed to which one is more popular. It seems to me that Chuck Devore will best represent the constituents because he will always suppport the constitution in his decisions. That’s the bottom line for me.
Flap
Chuck DeVore has not broken 10 per cent in any three way poll with Campbell and Fiorina. Time for conservatives get on board with the winning conservative candidate – and it isn’t left-leaning Tom Campbell.
Chuck DeVore has shown insufficient support both financially and voter wise and would be better to just withdraw from the race and endorse Fiorina.
He fought the good fight but it is over for Chuck.
Jim
This is why we have primaries, so the voters can choose. What is Fiorina afraid of? That she may not be the overwhelming favorite after all?
The biggest factor is probably that none of the candidates will get more than 50% of the vote, and there will need to be a run-off. I would submit that
the more people learn about all of the candidates, the more support Chuck Devore will get.
Eric
It ain’t over til it’s over
Flap
Jim,
Obviously, you don’t live in California. There will be no run-off election. Whoever wins the June primary with the most number of votes wins the nomination.
So, Chuck who woefully trails in the polls is in fact a spoiler candidate who may deliver the GOP nomination to liberal Tom Campbell.
Is that the character of a true conservative?
Chuck should admit he is beaten and respectfully withdraw and endorse the more conservative Fiorina.
Eric
“more conservative”?…I can’t agree with that
http://www.sacbee.com/2010/04/05/2655214/for-gop-senate-candidate-chuck.html
Flap
What can’t you agree with?
Read it again.
Chuck should endorse Fiorina who is without a doubt more conservative than Tom Campbell.
Eric
“the more conservative Fiorina” refers back to Devore and I can’t agree with that…I do agree that she’s more conservative than Campbell
Flap
There are not too many candidates that are more conservative than Chuck DeVore. But, in California that may well be a liability.
Voter demographics have changed quite a bit since Reagan’s days.
DeVore should just stop wasting everyone’s time and endorse Fiorina. Why take a chance that Campbell will be the nominee.
There is not much difference between Boxer and Campbell except that Campbell hates Israel and associates with Islamic terrorists.
Eric
demographics not withstanding, I have to support who I believe is best qualified…you’re certainly entitled to your half empty approach, but it seems to me that the number of half full folks is growing daily…if nothing else it sends out the message that there’s still a segment of voters that don’t consider conservatism and adherence to the constitution a liability – the louder that message, the further in that direction candidates will lean
Flap
Not half-empty but realistic.
I can guarantee you that DeVore will not be the nominee and whoever votes for him may well be casting a vote for the liberal Tom Campbell.
Some conservative ideals in play – NOT.
Eric
the right to support differing opinions is what makes our democracy the best in the world…I respect your stand but it won’t cause me to change mine
Jim
There’s still two months before the primary. A lot can change in that length of time.
Flap
Indeed it can but with DeVore’s fundraising numbers in the tank I don’t see it happening for him.