President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Issues Separate Republican Candidates

Although Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Sarah Palin lead the field of potential Republican presidential candidates among all Republicans nationwide, there are significant differences in candidate preferences when Republicans are divided by the issue they think is most important. Those focused on government spending and power are most likely to favor Huckabee or Romney, while those focused on the economy favor Romney or Palin. Republicans who say social and moral values are most important favor Huckabee or Palin.

An intuitive result with the more socially conservative Huckabee (Southern Baptist Minister) and Tea Party favorite Palin doing well with the social cons and Romney (the Mormon) not so much. Here is the summary for each:

Huckabee:

wins among the social and moral values issues segment, as might be expected given his background as a Southern Baptist minister. He essentially ties Romney among the group most interested in government spending and power and ties Palin among the national security and foreign policy group, but does less well among those interested in business and the economy. This suggests Huckabee’s possible weakness as a potential presidential candidate is views of his ability to deal with economic issues.

Huckabee’s stance on the “Fair Tax” and his propensity for Arkansas tax increases while Governor are weaknesses.

Romney:

wins among those focused on business and the economy, as befits his former experience as a businessman with a Master of Business Administration degree from Harvard. He ties Huckabee among those interested in government spending and power, but does less well among those focused on national security and particularly so among those focused on social issues. The latter positioning could reflect his switching positions on values issues such as abortion prior to his 2008 run for president.

Being am accomplished businessman plays to his strength while flip-flopping on social issues and his Mormonism hurt him.

Palin:

does slightly better among those focused on national security and foreign policy than on values issues and business and the economy. She performs much less well among those focused on government spending and power, despite being one of the leading public supporters of the Tea Party movement.

This must be an outlier since Sarah is the least experienced in foreign policy and has been a vocal advocate for the Tea Party, smaller government folks.

Gingrich:

does better among Republicans focused on government spending and power, but this is the only set of issues on which his support among Republican segments is in double digits.

Poor Newt is not doing well in these pre-debate match-ups but look for him to perform better once the field is solidified.

What are the most important issues for Republicans as the Presidential race begins?

And, differences by demographic category:

Maybe Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is right about the “truce” on social issues since the others seem to trump them.

There are many ways to segment the Republican voting population as next year’s presidential primaries and caucuses draw closer. One of these is “issues voting groups” — divisions based on the issues voters consider most important in their political thinking. Given four issue choices, Republicans at this point are most focused on two: the role of government and the economy. Fewer Republicans choose national security and moral issues at this point in the 2012 election cycle, even though international and moral issues have often defined the GOP’s political platforms in previous years.

These issue segments do not totally determine candidate preferences at this point, but some strengths and weaknesses of the leading candidates among Republicans in each of these groups do emerge. Huckabee has his greatest strength among those focused on social and moral issues, and is weaker among business- and economy-focused voters. Romney does relatively well among each issue group except those most focused on moral issues. Palin is strongest among foreign policy-focused voters and is weaker among those interested in government power and spending. Gingrich is modestly stronger among Republicans interested in government power.