President 2012 Poll Watch: Any Republican 44% Vs. Barack Obama 39%

Forty-four percent of registered voters say they are more likely to vote for “the Republican Party’s candidate” and 39% for Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election, according to Gallup’s June update. The current five-percentage-point edge for the generic Republican is not a statistically significant lead, and neither side has held a meaningful lead at any point thus far in 2011.

These results are based on a June 9-12 Gallup poll. The competitiveness of the race is underscored by the fact that Obama’s re-election prospects on this measure did not appear much better in May, when his approval rating rose to the 50% level. Now that the rally in support for Obama is essentially over, the president appears to be in a slightly weaker position but still very competitive with his as-yet-unnamed opponent.

Voters’ uncertainty about what they might do in the 2012 election is also apparent in the 18% who do not have a preference for Obama or the Republican at this point.

Well, it is better to be a GOP Presidential candidate than the incumbent President?

It appears so which is good news for Mitt Romney et. al..

But, independents are moving towards the Republicans. This is a danger sign to the President.

But, alas the election is a long way off and the corolation so far out is dubious at best.

So, what does this all mean?

The current political environment shows that President Obama may be in for a tough re-election race – no matter who the GOP nominates.

Presidential preferences long before an election can give an indication of the current political environment, but their relationship to the eventual election outcome shows how much that environment can change in the months leading up to the election. If the election were held today, Obama would appear to be in a tough fight for re-election with a fairly close division in registered-voter preferences between the president and a generic Republican.

Regardless of whom Republicans nominate, if national conditions improve, as was the case from 1983 to 1984 and 1995 to 1996, Obama could win re-election easily. If they do not, as occurred between 1979 and 1980, or get worse, as happened from 1991 to 1992, he could be vulnerable to defeat by whomever the Republicans nominate.