President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Does Mitt Romney Have the GOP Nomination Wrapped Up?

While most of the political world’s attention has been focused on South Carolina, Mitt Romney has moved into a clear lead in a set of national polls conducted since his victory in the New Hampshire primary.

On average, Mr. Romney has 35 percent of the vote in an average of four national polls completed since New Hampshire, giving him a 19-point lead over Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum.

Just how safe is a 19-point lead at this point in the campaign? Based on historical precedent, it is enough to all but assure that Mr. Romney will be the Republican nominee.

I went through our database of past primary polls for the 16 competitive nomination races from 1972 (when the current primary system was adopted) to 2008. For each cycle, I took a simple average of all national polls conducted in the two weeks after the New Hampshire primary was held. (The lone exception was the 1976 Democratic race, when there were no polls conducted within this window, so I expanded the range to three weeks after New Hampshire instead.)

In 13 of the 16 cases, the candidate leading in national polls after New Hampshire won his party’s nomination.

Then, there is today’s Florida poll which has Mitt Romney with a substantial lead over the GOP field (17 points over second place Gingrich).

I think it is the conventional wisdom, that Romney has won and will be the 2012 GOP Presidential nominee.