Barack Obama,  Polling,  President 2012

Does Democrat Voter Enthusiasm Spell Trouble for Obama?

Yes, according to the latest Gallup Poll.

Democrats are significantly less likely now (39%) than they were in the summers of 2004 and 2008 to say they are “more enthusiastic about voting than usual” in the coming presidential election. Republicans are more enthusiastic now than in 2008, and the same as in 2004.

These results are based on a July 19-22 USA Today/Gallup poll. They suggest a shift in Republicans’ and Democrats’ orientation to voting in the coming presidential election compared with the last two, with Republicans expressing more voting enthusiasm. The current 51% to 39% Republican advantage in voter enthusiasm is slightly larger than the 53% to 45% GOP advantage Gallup measured in February of this year.

The voting enthusiasm measure gives a sense of Americans’ motivation to turn out and vote but probably also their expectations of their preferred party’s chances of winning. Thus, the Republican advantage may indicate a greater likelihood of voting among Republicans but also greater optimism about a Republican victory than was the case in 2008. In turn, Democrats are probably less optimistic about their chances of winning than they were in 2008.

Can you not feel a sense in a change of momentum in the Obama re-election campaign and the left-wing dominated media about Democratic Party prospects?

In 2004 and 2006, the LEFT was determined and driven to beat Bush and the GOP. This year it is ho hum. This indifference is reflected in the polls.

Republicans vote with greater frequency than Democrats anyway. Should Democrats fail to show up to the polls to support Obama in the key battleground states, the President will be toast.

With voter enthusiasm down significantly from 2004 and 2008 levels, it is reasonable to expect that turnout will be lower this presidential election than in the last two elections, both of which had above-average turnout from a historical perspective.

Republicans’ greater enthusiasm about voting is a troubling sign for the Obama campaign, especially given the fact that registered voters are essentially tied in their presidential voting preferences and that Republicans historically vote at higher rates than Democrats do.