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Giuliani Notes: Rudy 25% Romney 16% McCain 15% Thompson 12% in Latest Rasmussen National GOP Poll
Rasmussen Reports: 2008 Republican Presidential Primary
Romney Catches McCain in National Poll for GOP Nomination
The immigration reform debate may be shaking up the race for the Republican Presidential nomination. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has inched past Arizona Senator John McCain for second place in the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone poll. Just two weeks ago, Romney was in fourth place among GOP hopefuls.
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) remains on top with 25% support. That’s essentially unchanged from last week. In fact, Giuliani has been at 25% or 26% in the polls for four straight weeks.
This week, Giuliani is followed by Romney at 16%, McCain at 15%, and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson at 12%. While Romney’s one-point edge over McCain is statistically insignificant, it’s worth noting that McCain had a six-point advantage over Romney just two weeks ago.
McCain, once considered the dominant frontrunner, has been strongly supportive of the immigration reform bill being debated in the Senate. That bill is unpopular with the general public—just 26% of voters favor its passage.
The GOP NUTS:
Rudy continues to lead by almost double digits as he has for months. Yet, the big news is McCain’s collapse and the rise of Mitt Romney.
Why?
Probably a number of factors:
1. McCain’s support of an unpopular Senate Illegal Immigration AMNESTY Bill
Romney has announced his strong opposition to the immigration bill and Giuliani called it a “hodgepodge… without any central focus.†Thompson said “We should scrap this bill and the whole debate until we can convince the American people that we have secured the borders or at least have made great headway.” Most Americans are willing to support an enforcement-only approach at this time.
2. Romney is on-air in a number of early primary states
3. McCain’s FLIP remarks about Bombing Iran among others
4. Fred Thompson’s “supposed” candidacy
Although Romney’s lead is statistically insignificant, will this spur Fred Thompson into the race, replacing McCain?
In the short term, how will this affect McCain’s second quarter fundraising?
Stay tuned…….
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Giuliani Notes: Rudy 36% McCain 22% Romney 15% in Latest CBS Poll
CBS Poll: Clinton, Giuliani Still In Front
The GOP NUTS:
Rudy is down a bit, McCain is down more and Romney has picked up the slack. However, the 21% for someone else is Fred Thompson? And what impact would a named candidacy have on the numbers?
But, Rudy still leads by double digits and is up to a 8.5 point spread on the Real Clear Politics Poll averages:
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Giuliani Notes: Rudy – Highest Net Favorable Image in Latest Gallup Poll
The Gallup Poll: Giuliani remains most positively evaluated; Clinton and Romney least so
Giuliani has the highest net favorable image of any of the major candidates, followed by Obama, Edwards, McCain, Fred Thompson, and finally Clinton and Romney. The net favorable ratings for several of these candidates — including in particular Clinton — have shown a decline through April, with a modest recovery in May.
The Name ID NUTS:
Note the low name identification of Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney. Can Thompson be considered a serious candidate? He has not announced his candidacy nor raised any money to bolster his low name identifiction. Not everyone watches Law and Order.
Let’s now look at a head to head favorability graph of Rudy and Hillary:
This differential boosts the “electability” argument for Rudy and bolsters the argument for an Obama nomination.
All things considered, a poll of this nature continues to support the frontrunner status of the Mayor.
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Giuliani Notes: Rudy Endorsed by Speaker of the Georgia House
Speaker of the Georgia House Glenn Richardson
The Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee today announced that Speaker of the Georgia House of Representatives Glenn Richardson will serve as the campaign’s Georgia Chairman.He’s also the chairman of the overlooked but powerful Southern Legislative Conference (SLC) and the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC).
Mr. Richardson takes credit for endursing passage of the “Woman’s Right To Know Act,” which requires women to get fetal ultrasounds before they get abortions.
Other Georgia endorsements for the Mayor announced today include:
- Senator Ronnie Chance, representing District 16
- Representative Barry Fleming, representing District 117
- Representative Jeff May, representing District 11
- Representative David Ralston, representing District 7
- Representative Jay Roberts, representing District 154
- Former GA Republican Party Chairman Rusty Paul
- Former GA Republican Party Chairman Bob Shaw
- Former Mayor of Augusta, Bob Young
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Giuliani Notes: Rudy Leads McCain by 13 Points in Latest Zogby Poll
The GOP NUTS:
The HEAD TO HEAD NUTS:
In another national poll, Rudy leads the field by double digits. Since late February Rudy has lost some; McCain has lost alot and neither Fred Thompson nor Mitt Romney have caught fire. Mike Huckabee has faired the best in the Zogby Poll.
In general election match-ups, Rudy beats Hillary 48%-43% and Edwards 47%-43%. But loses to Obama 48% to 42%. But, who thinks that Obama will be the Democrat nominee?
Nobody
Rudy and McCain do the best against the Democrats. Romney is abysmally poor in general election match-ups.
The question: Are Romney and Fred Thompson (who hasn’t announced a Presidential candidacy) VIABLE and CREDIBLE candidates?
Let’s look at the newly recalculated Real Clear Politics poll averages:
Rudy has extended his average poll lead to 7.5 %.
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Giuliani Notes: South Carolina – Rudy Takes the Lead
Real Clear Politics: New SC Poll
The GOP NUTS:
Rudy 18
McCain 17
Gingrich 17
F. Thompson 13
Romney 8
Huckabee 6
Hunter 3
Brownback 3
Gilmore 1
Paul 1
Undecided 13
Without wanting to put too much stock in any one poll, it’s probably worth pointing out that while Romney has definitely been on an upward trajectory in Iowa and New Hampshire, he ticked down in this poll and overall his support in South Carolina has remained consistently – and somewhat surprisingly – soft.
McCain leads by 5.0% in the freshly updated RCP Average for South Carolina.
South Carolina looks like a two man race between Rudy and McCain. Interesting that Romney remains in single digits in a southern state supposedly sympathetic to his social con views. Obviously, Romney does not play well in the South.
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Giuliani Notes: Rudy 26% McCain 17% Gingrich 10% Thompson 9% Romney 8% in Diageo/Hotline Poll
POLL: Diageo/Hotline National Survey
The GOP NUTS:
The HEAD TO HEAD NUTS:
Rudy leads yet another national GOP poll and is within the margin of error against his Democrat opponents.
Note: Romney trails in 4th place despite doing better in recent polls and Fred Thompson is not catching fire. But, then again, he hasn’t announced his candidacy.
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Giuliani Notes: Rudy Slaps Edwards for Calling Global War on Terror a BUMPER STICKER
Rudy slaps Democrat Presidential candidate John Edwards for calling the war on terror a “bumper sticker” slogan Bush used to justify everything from the abuses at the Abu Ghrab prison to the invasion of Iraq.
The Quote:
“[W]hen you go so far as to suggest that the global war on terror is a bumper sticker or slogan, it kind of makes the point that I’ve been making over and over again that the Democrats or at least some of them are in denial…”
Indeed Edwards is……
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Giuliani Notes: Rudy Calls Immigration Bill a HODGEPODGE
Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani, left, greets Dick and Elizabeth Sweet of Reading, Vt., during a campaign stop in White River Junction, Vt., Wednesday, May 23, 2007.
While campaigning in Vermont today, Mayor Giuliani called the Senate Immigration bill a HODGEPODGE.
Giuliani Criticizes Immigration Bill Backed By McCain
“We need to know everyone who’s in the United States who comes here from a foreign country. That has to be the goal of our immigration law,” he said. “If you make that the objective of your law, you will clear up a lot of the confusion that presently exists both in our present immigration law and in what Congress is trying to do right now, which kind of goes in 10 different directions without any central focus.”
Are McCain and Kennedy the only remaining supporters of this bill?
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Giuliani Notes: Iowa Poll Shows Romney Lead a BLIP
Flap reported a few days ago a break-out by Mitt Romney in the Des Moines Register poll. Apparently this was a statistical abnormality or BLIP – especially since Fred Thompson and Newt Ginrich were not included in the poll.
The latest Iowa poll by Strategic Vision tells a different story:
- Mitt Romney 20%
- Rudy Giuliani 18%
- John McCain 16%
- Fred Thompson 10%
- Tommy Thompson 7%
- Newt Gingrich 5%
- Mike Huckabee 3%
- Sam Brownback 2%
- Tom Tancredo 2%
- Ron Paul 2%
- Duncan Hunter 1%
- Jim Gilmore 1%
- Chuck Hagel 1%
- Undecided 12%
Let’s now look at the Real Clear Politics summary poll for Iowa:
Without a doubt, the Mayor has fallen out of favor in the Iowa polls since March. However, he has stabilized over the past month and is in a virtual DEAD HEAT with Romney and McCain.
Iowa is a state that Mitt Romney MUST win. The Mittster wishes to catapult himself from the Iowa Caucuses on January 14th to Nevada on January 19th and then to New Hampshire on January 22nd. This is the Mitt-Mentum strategy.
Hizzoner, on the other hand, strategizes with a big win in Florida on January 29th to propel him to a knock-out win on February 5th with New York, New Jersey, California, Pennsylvania and Illinois. California has five times the GOP delegates as Iowa.
So, is Iowa even important to Rudy?
Perhaps
Will Rudy spend the $millions to compete in the Iowa Straw Poll or compete at all in the Iowa Caucuses?
Pundits will have to wait.
And wait for what?
Fred Thompson
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