Rasmussen Reports: 2008 Republican Presidential Primary

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows little change at the top of the Republican Presidential field, but former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has gained some ground on the frontrunners.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani remains on top with support from 26% of those likely to vote in a Republican Primary. Arizona Senator John McCain remains in second with 18%. Last week, Giuliani led McCain by seven points, 25% to 18%.

The potentially big change is that Romney has inched into third place with 15%. That’s just a single point ahead of former Senator Fred Thompson, but it’s also the first time Romney has moved ahead of Thompson since the TV star’s name first entered the race. It will take another week or two to know whether the change is significant or merely statistical noise. It’s also worth noting that Romney is within three percentage points of McCain.

The GOP NUTS:

Mitt Romney’s move at the expense of Fred Thompson is interesting. However, it is too early to tell whether this is a BLIP or a statistical anomaly.

Flap continues to believe that Thompson will NOT enter the race. But, if he does it is a stake in the heart of Romney’s campaign.

This poll was taken before the immigration FLAP of the past few days and it remains to be seen as to how much damage McCain’s position on the Senate illegal immigration bill and his smack-down of Romney have caused his or Romney’s Presidential candidacy.

Rudy is sitting comfortably at 26% awaiting a thinning of the ranks. All national polls show him beating McCain or Romney in head to head races.

Flap’s take is that the more candidates, the better Rudy will do. A Thompson candidacy may then be welcome. Nobody will then emerge to challenge the Mayor as the front-runner.
Let’s look at the Real Clear Politics poll averages:

Previous:

The Rudy Giuliani Files

Technorati Tags: Rudy Giuliani

Republican presidential candidate former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani speaks at a community leadership forum luncheon in Orlando, Fla., Friday, May 18, 2007.

Florida moves up its Presidential primary election to January 29 with Governor Charlie Crist’s signing of legislation.

Advantage: Giuliani

Now, will South Carolina set in motion a move for their primary to be moved to Fall 2007?

Previous:

The Rudy Giuliani Files

Technorati Tags: Rudy Giuliani

Rudolph Giuliani is seen in Philadelphia, on Dec. 13, 1982, when he was an associate attorney general. The Republican patronage machine was in full motion early in the Reagan era, with countless positions to be filled by the faithful. From his high perch at the Justice Department, Rudy Giuliani was not always willing to go along.

Documents: Giuliani maverick at Justice

A track record of independence follows Rudy from the Justice Department to the New York City Mayor’s office.

Isn’t this somebody we want in the Presidency?

Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani speaks during a ‘town hall meeting’ at Oglethorpe University in Atlanta Wednesday, May 16, 2007 to reinforce a point he made earlier in South Carolina: that Republicans are best equipped to combat the threat of terrorism.

Previous:

The Rudy Giuliani Files

Technorati Tags: Rudy Giuliani

Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani speaks during a ‘town hall meeting’ at Oglethorpe University in Atlanta Wednesday, May 16, 2007 to reinforce a point he made earlier in South Carolina: that Republicans are best equipped to combat the threat of terrorism.

The American Spectator: Rudy Reborn

It is axiomatic that presidential candidates in the primary run toward their base- to the right for Republicans and left for Democrats — and then veer toward the center in the general election. This playbook is being carefully followed by candidates such as Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton. Both have abandoned moderation as he runs to the right on social issues, guns and campaign finance reform and she curries favor with the anti-war left by suggesting we “un-declare” war and immediately withdraw troops from Iraq. However, Rudy Giuliani is trying something quite different and if this week was any indication it may be the best shot he has at securing the nomination.

Jennifer Rubin has it RIGHT.

But, a multi-state early primary shift has made Rudy’s campaign strategy a reality. The traditional GOP primary states of New Hampshire and Iowa will dim in importance to the more diverse and moderate states of Florida and California.

Any appeal to the center and independents without offending the RIGHT will reward Rudy in November 2008.

After all, isn’t that the goal?

More Jennifer Rubin:

“Giuliani Tries to Set the Record Straight” – Human Events, May 8th, 2007

“Recap and Awards for Debate Winners” – Human Events, May 16th, 2007
Previous:

The Rudy Giuliani Files

Technorati Tags: Rudy Giuliani

Flap was invited to yesterday’s Rudy Giuliani conference call.

This post is late because Flap had a wonderful afternoon with my daughter, Ashley, yesterday, went shopping and was actually able to purchase a Nintendo Wii from a local game store.

The installation and game playing commenced.

Ok, back to the blogger conference call.

Unlike the previous three calls, the Mayor was present and accepted questions after a brief statement.  Listen to the entire conference call.

After the statement the following blogs and bloggers asked questions of the Mayor:

Jennifer Rubin from ABCNews.com

Blake Dworak from Real Clear Politics

Phil Klein from the American Spectator

Matt Lewis of Townhall.com

Jim Geraghty of National Review Online

Skip Murphy of GraniteGrok.com

Bill Bradley of New West Notes

The Gallup Poll: New Yorkers Continue to Lead 2008 Nomination Contests

Giuliani’s favorable image holding steady with Republicans

The national front-runners for the 2008 presidential nominations continue to be former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani for the Republican Party and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Party.

According to a May 10-13, 2007, Gallup Poll, 29% of Republicans favor Giuliani for his party’s nomination, giving him a six-point lead over John McCain, with 23%. Clinton holds a nine-point lead in the Democratic race over second-place contender Barack Obama, 35% vs. 26%.

In early March, and again in early April, Giuliani led McCain by more than 20 points, making him a more formidable front-runner than he appears to be in the current poll. More recently, Giuliani held a 14-point lead over McCain, 34% to 20%, in early May. But neither his five-point decline to 29% in the latest poll, nor McCain’s three-point increase, are statistically significant changes. Thus, it is important to wait until the next poll to see whether the race has truly tightened, or whether the apparently closer race merely reflects random variation because of normal sampling error.

The GOP NUTS:

Rudy is in a good position going into the late Spring and early Summer. He may have gone down a little in the latest polling cycle and McCain may have gained but the changes may not be statistically significant.

Let’s look at head to head comparisons:

And now this poll reflecting true head to head polling:

A national 10 percentage point lead is fine in anyone’s book.

But, now will McCain be able to raise any money to be competitive with the Mayor in key Super-Duper Tuesday, February 5, 2008 states?

Perhaps

And Rudy’s favorability is well favorable:

Stay tuned……..

Previous:

The Rudy Giuliani Files

Technorati Tags: Rudy Giuliani

Quinnipiac Poll Ohio

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani gets 43 percent to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama’s 42 percent in the 2008 presidential race in Ohio, and leads other Democrats by wider margins, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Giuliani tops New York Sen. Hillary Clinton 47 – 43 percent, and leads former Vice President Al Gore 48 – 40 percent, the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds.

The GOP Ohio NUTS:

Rudy – 23%

McCain – 17%

Thompson – 15%

Romney – 11%

Gingrich – 6%

Fred Thompson jumps ahead of Mitt Romney even though he has not announced his candidacy nor formed a campaign organization.

Rudy shows his strength as the most likely GOP candidate to beat the Democrats in 2008. The Mayor also leads ALL candidates in favorability/unfavorability polling.

Previous:

The Rudy Giuliani Files

Technorati Tags: Rudy Giuliani

POLL: Strategic Vision (R) Florida Primary

Who is your first choice for the Republican nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)

Rudy Giuliani 32%

John McCain 20%

Fred Thompson 10%

Newt Gingrich 7%

Mitt Romney 5%

Sam Brownback 3%

Tom Tancredo 2%

Mike Huckabee 2%

Ron Paul 2%

Tommy Thompson 1%

Jim Gilmore 1%

Chuck Hagel 1%

Duncan Hunter 1%

Undecided 13%

Rudy continues to lead in Florida which has recently moved its primary election to January 29, 2008.

Will Florida be the first of “big state” wins for Rudy, propleeing him toward a knock-out on Super-Duper Tuesday, February 5th?

Most probably…..

Post debate, the candidates will return to the fundraising trail, where second quarter numbers may tell the story for the rest of the year.

The main questions are:

1. Will Fred Thompson enter the race?

2. Will Newt Gingrich enter the race?

3. Will McCain be able to bolster his fundraising in order to contend in “big states?”

Stay tuned…….

Previous:

The Rudy Giuliani Files

Technorati Tags: Rudy Giuliani

U.S. Senator John McCain (R-AZ) (L) and former New York City Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani talk before the start of a nationally televised Republican presidential debate from the Koger Center at the University of South Carolina in Columbia, South Carolina, May 15, 2007.

So, who won tonight’s debate?

Flap will wait for the polls. But, is there any doubt?

McCain and Romney were smacking each other and Rudy looked like a President and his throw down of Ron Paul begs to be seen again:

From the Giuliani campaign:

“Tonight it was clear there was only one candidate on the stage ready to be President of the United States. Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s command of the issues and unifying, optimistic vision for the future of this country stood out in stark contrast – proving he is the strong leader these times demand. He will bring our Party and our country together to win the terrorists’ war on us and keep our economy strong and growing.”

Indeed

And the Fox News text message poll has Ron Paul winning……

Stay tuned…….

Update:

From The Corner:

A Bad Night for Romney   [Ramesh Ponnuru]

Last time around, Romney won and Rudy lost; this time around, I’d say it was exactly the other way around, with McCain in the middle both times.

CBN’s David Brody: “No offense to Stella, but if I was going to title this debate, I would call it, “How Giuliani got his groove back.”

NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/:

“Giuliani and McCain looked and acted like the frontrunners tonight. They got opportunities to look presidential and seized the moments. Romney, after a great first debate, turned in a very mediocre performance. Part of his problem were the surprisingly tough questions he received from his inquisitors which seemed to throw him off. But there was something about him that just seemed less present on stage tonight. Maybe it was because he wasn’t standing on the far left side of the stage, like
McCain this time and Romney was in the first debate.”

Captain’s Quarters: Giuliani Wins, But Paul Threw The Game

Team Rudy should send a hundred roses to Ron Paul — yellow roses, of course — after the Congressman essentially tossed the debate to Giuliani. Rudy had a pretty good night going anyway, but when Paul as much as said that the terrorists had a point in killing 3,000 Americans, Rudy let fly with the righteous indigation that an entire nation was busily hurling at their television screens.

Update #2

The Rudy Quotes:

Mayor Giuliani: “I’ve Seen What Can Happen When You Make A Mistake” About Terrorism

Mayor Giuliani: “In the hypothetical that you gave me, which assumes that we know that there’s going to be another attack and these people know about it, I would tell the people who had to do the interrogation to use every method they could think of. Shouldn’t be torture, but every method they can think of. … And I would support them in doing that, because I’ve seen what can happen when you make a mistake about this, and I don’t want to see another 3,000 people dead in New York or anyplace else.”

Mayor Giuliani: The Worst Thing To Show Terrorists Is Weakness.

Giuliani: “These people do want to follow us here and they have followed us here. Fort Dix happened a week ago. That was a situation in which six Islamic terrorists, who were not directed by Al Qaeda but claimed to have been inspired by them, were going to kill our military in cold blood at Fort Dix. It was a 16 month investigation done by the F.B.I. and United States Attorney’s office and thank God they caught them. But we have to remind ourselves that we are facing an enemy that is planning all over this world and it turns out planning inside our country to come here and kill us and the worst thing to do in the face of that is to show them weakness.”

Mayor Giuliani: We Need To Identify Everyone In U.S. So We Can Find The Terrorists.

Mayor Giuliani: “The reality is the focus on immigration should be to know everyone who is in the United States. We should have a tamper-proof ID card. We should have a database in which we can identify the people who are in this country. I know something about security. I think I have had more experience at having to secure a city, having to deal with security and the justice department than I would say anyone on this stage. And the reality is we have got to be sensible about immigration. If we do the kinds of things that some of the people here are talking about, this country is going to be in greater danger, it’s going to be more insecure, we are going to face a situation in which terrorists, like the Fort Dix people, three of whom were illegal, can find a big underground to hide in. So, we need a fence, we need technological fence, we need tamper-proof ID card and we need a way that people who are working in this country can come forward, and sign up for the tamper proof ID card get in the database and start paying their way.”

Previous:

The Rudy Giuliani Files

Technorati Tags: Rudy Giuliani