The Public Plicy Institute of California has its latest poll, PPIC Statewide Survey: Special Survey on Californians and the Initiative Process, September 2005.

The poll numbers are not favorable for California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. However, the poll was conducted prior to the beginning Governor’s television campaign and did not poll on proposition 75, the Paycheck Protection Initiative.

Ok, here are the numbers:

* Proposition 74 (teacher tenure), 43% yes, 47% no

* Proposition 76 (spending and funding limits), 26% yes, 63% no

* Proposition 77 (redistricting), 33% yes, 50% no

* Proposition 78 (prescription drug discounts), 43% yes, 38% no

* Proposition 79 (prescription drug discounts), 34% yes, 40% no

The full report is here.

The Governor’s personal poll numbers are unfavorable as well:

Currently, 33 percent of Californians approve and 58 percent disapprove of the way Governor Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor. His ratings today are similar to those of the state legislature (32% approve, 53% disapprove). Fewer Californians today than one year ago say the governor is doing an excellent or good job working for their best interests (from 46% to 28%). Likely voters are slightly more supportive of the governor than are Californians generally: 38 percent approve of his performance in office, while 55 percent disapprove. His ratings were virtually
unchanged before and after he announced his reelection plans on September 16th.

Flap believes the Governor can turn these numbers around with more media exposure – meaning television. The public employee unions have spent tens of millions of dollars and the Governor was late in raising and matching media dollars.

Time is fleeting for the Governor and the television spots need to be increased in frequency.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 78, Proposition 79

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has begn his long-waited media advertising campaign. The television ads can be seen at the Governor’s Join Arnold website.

Gov. Schwarzenegger has launched his first salvo of television advertising in the November Special Election. The first spot, titled “Package,” features California voters fed up with Sacramento’s broken system. The second commercial, titled “Rebuild” features the Governor speaking to the people explaining his vision for California and the need to reform California this year so we can rebuild California next year.

“The big government union bosses have focused their millions of dollars tearing me down because they know they cannot defeat my ideas,” said Gov. Schwarzenegger. “Now is the time to fight for reform. We have the opportunity to put our reform agenda in front of the people so they can vote for change and against the status quo that has paralyzed and broken Sacramento.”

Union bosses have raised more than $75 million this year in their fight to preserve the status quo and block the Governor’s reforms, spending tens of millions already on bogus attack ads against the Governor.

The two 30-second spots will hit the air in the next 24 hours.

FINALLY!

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

The Alliance for a Better California has a Blog.

The Alliance for a Better California represents nearly 2 million teachers, firefighters, nurses, health care workers and average, every day people who are devoting our careers to helping others. For some reason Governor Schwarzenegger has decided that we are the enemy. We are not. We want what’s best for Californians and we don’t understand why the Governor is blaming us for all the problems of our state.

Instead of dealing with the problems Californians care about, the Governor is still pursuing an agenda that will do nothing to fix schools, traffic or the state’s budget — and he’s still threatening to hold a special election costing taxpayers $70 million on ideas that aren’t ready for prime time.

Governor Schwarzenegger is out of touch with the people he claims to represent, and we won’t be fooled by his empty promises. If he insists on holding an unnecessary and expensive special election, we will put our own good ideas directly before the voters of California, and we will win.

The Alliance for a Better California includes:

* American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME)
* Association of California School Administrators (ACSA)
* California Correctional Peace Officers Association (CCPOA)
* California Faculty Association (CFA)
* California Federation of Teachers (CFT)
* California Labor Federation
* California Professional Firefighters (CPF)
* California School Employees Association (CSEA)
* California Teachers Association (CTA)
* Peace Officers Research Association of California (PORAC)
* Service Employees International Union (SEIU)
* SEIU Local 1000

Flap notices that the supporters are all public employee unions……

Oh! What a surprise.

These folks are the new Southern Pacific Railroad of the 21st Century.

Keep up with all of the Lefties and the California Special Election – tune in here.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 74, Proposition 80

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

The Sacramento Bee has Governor’s far behind on 2 issues, Spending limits and redistricting trail, while teacher tenure holds onto poll lead.

Two of the three initiatives Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has proposed to fix California government are losing badly and a third is trending in the same direction – toward defeat, according to a new Field Poll.

A fourth initiative aimed at the financial heart of Schwarzenegger’s union-funded political opposition continues to hold a substantial lead, although a huge bankroll of labor-generated campaign cash poses a threat to the measure.

The Field Poll is here.

Proposition 75 (Public Employee Union Dues) Paycheck Protection:

In its latest statewide survey, The Field Poll finds the Yes side on Prop. 75 maintaining a large
twenty-three point lead, unchanged from an earlier poll in June.

This measure would prohibit public employee labor organizations from using dues or fees from its
members for political contributions unless the employee provides prior written consent. Currently, 55% of likely voters favor the measure, while 32% are on the No side. This division of sentiment is virtually the same as was found in June, when it was 57% Yes and 34% No. Democrats and non-partisans are only narrowly supporting Prop. 75, while Republicans are overwhelmingly in favor 71% to 22%. Men and women, as well as voters in Southern and Northern California, currently favor Prop. 75.

Proposition 74 (Public School Teacher’s Tenure)

The Yes side on Prop. 74 continues to lead by nine points (46% to 37%), its preference margin is down from a twenty-nine point lead in June.

Prop. 74 is a measure called the “Public School Teachers: Waiting Period for Permanent Status;
Dismissal” initiative. It would increase the probationary period for public school teachers from
two to five years and modifies the process by which school boards can dismiss teaching employees who have received two consecutive unsatisfactory performance evaluations. The current poll shows that there has also been a big change in voter sentiment on this proposition. In June the Yes side had a large two-to-one lead – 61% to 32%. Now, Prop. 74 leads only narrowly, 46% Yes to 37% No.
While the Yes side maintains the lead overall, the poll shows that shifts in the opinion away from
Yes to No have among all voter sub-groups.

Proposition 76 (State Spending and School Funding Limits)

The measure which is reportedly the linchpin of the government reform measures being backed by
Governor Schwarzenegger is Prop. 76, the “School Spending and State Spending” initiative. According to its official ballot summary, Prop. 76 would limit state spending to prior year levels
plus the average revenue growth of the three previous years. It would also change the minimum
school funding requirements under Prop. 98 and permits the Governor to reduce state budgets
under certain circumstances. After being read this summary, the likely voters interviewed in this survey were asked how they would vote if the election were being held today. Statewide, 65% say they would vote No, 19%would vote Yes and 16% are undecided. This represents a big increase in opposition to Prop. 76 from what was found in an earlier June Field Poll, when its lead was only seven points (42% to 35%). Remarkably, majorities or pluralities across all voter subgroups, Democrats, Republicans, nonpartisans, men, women, Southern and Northern California, say they are disposed to vote No on Prop. 76.

Proposition 77 (Redistricting)

There has been no significant change in the voter preferences on Prop. 77 over the past two
months. The No side is leading 46% to 32%, about where it was in June.

Prop. 77 amends the state constitution’s process for redistricting California’s Senate, Assembly,
Congressional and Board of Equalization districts. In both the June and late August surveys more voters were inclined to vote No than Yes by margins of eleven to fourteen points. Democrats and non-partisans are strongly opposed to Prop. 77, while Republicans are supporting it. Women are strongly opposed 47% to 23%, while men only slightly so (45% to 42%). Opposition to the initiative is somewhat less among voters who had some prior knowledge of the initiative prior to their being surveyed than among voters who had not heard of the measure.

Proposition 80 (Electric Service Providers Regulation)

Prop. 80 subjects electric service providers to regulation by the California Public Utilities
Commission, restricts consumers’ ability to switch from private utilities to other providers, and
requires that all retail suppliers of electricity increase their renewal energy resource purchases by
2010.
Only a relatively small proportion (17%) of voters were aware of this initiative, which has not
been getting as much media attention as the other propositions.
Voter sentiment at this time divides almost evenly into three groups: 33% Yes, 35% No and 32% undecided.

Good news for Proposition 75 in the polls and in that the special interest public employee unions are commiting some serious campaign cash to defeat it. Campaign money that will not be available next year, particularly since the national labor movement is in disarray and declining.

Flap has always thought Proposition 76 and 77 were dog of initiatives. The voters don’t understand and most folks do not care about such measures. This is inside Sacramento politics and voters are disinterested – no matter how much is spent on a media campaign.

When Proposition 76 goes down, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is free to raise taxes to balance the California state budget and raise he will….. with the consent of the electorate.

When Propositiion 77 fails, then the Governor can blame the gerrymandered Democrat legislature for spending the state bankrupt.

Flap recommends the Governor concentrate his resources on:

1. Proposition 75 (Paycheck Protection)

2. His re-election campaign fund

California business who will be affected by the coming state tax increases better get busy supporting the Governor because they know that an Angelides or Westly governorship will mean even HIGHER taxes and MORE regulation – all controlled by the public employee unions.

Oh, by the way, the Governor has already won the special election.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 74, Proposition 80

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

Reuters has Poll finds Schwarzenegger’s popularity remains low.

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s popularity has not improved as he heads into the campaign season for a special election he has called for November, according to a poll released on Friday.

The Field Poll found just 36 percent of 891 registered voters approved of Schwarzenegger’s performance as governor, compared to 52 percent disapproval.

In a June Field poll, 37 percent of those surveyed approved, with 53 percent disapproving.

The latest survey, which had 3.4 percent margin of error, found that 57 percent opposed the November special election, which will consider issues such as how California draws its legislative districts.

The latest Field Poll is here.

This is continuing bad news for the Governor and what is to be expected when you allow your opponents to seize the initiative with an early media campaign.California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger waves to the crowd as he watches the game between the Oakland Athletics and the Los Angeles Angels with Los Angeles Angels owner Arte Moreno (L) in Anaheim, California, August 30, 2005

Schwarzenegger can rebound and Flap has given his suggestions here and here.

A Fall campaign cannot happen soon enough.

The one good note for Schwarzenegger from the Field Poll:

State legislature ratings even lower than Governor’s

As poorly as voters view the Governor’s performance, their assessment of the job the state legislature is doing is even more negative. More than one-half (54%) now disapprove of the job that the lawmakers are doing and just 27% approve. Since The Field Poll began rating the performance of the state legislature more than twenty years ago, voter assessments of that body over the past two and one-half years have been among its poorest.

Voters of all political parties have a more negative than positive view of the legislature’s
performance.

If the Governor can run a modest campaign this Fall he has won this special election – even if he loses every proposition and the status quo remains.

CNN has California labor unions lack resources in special election fight.

The lack of national labor money means California’s local unions will have to pick up most of the tab for their campaigns, and they have already spent millions to discredit Schwarzenegger and his ballot measures.

Whether that will be enough to counter the campaign by Schwarzenegger and his supporters is unclear. The governor has set a goal of raising $50 million to promote the measures.

This is campaign money that will not be used against the Governor in the Fall of 2006, nor in election year propositions, nor in Democrat Primary races, nor in California State Senate or Assembly contests…..

and…. should the Paycheck Protection Initiative, Proposition 75 pass ( it is leading in the latest poll) it will freeze the ability of public employee unions to exploit their memberhsip with dedicated dues increases to fund liberal initiatives and candidates…..

Well….. you get the idea.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 75, Proposition 77

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page