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Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bear Flag League, California, Politics, Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 78, Special Election 2005
California Special Election Watch: Latest Stanford University-Hoover Institution-Knowledge Networks (S-H-KN) Online Survey
The Hoover Institution has Poll: Race Too Close to Call for Two Schwarzenegger Propositions.
A Stanford University-Hoover Institution-Knowledge Networks (S-H-KN) online survey shows two of the statewide ballot propositions backed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in a statistical dead heat.
Prop. 74 (Teacher Tenure) and Prop. 77 (Redistricting) both split likely California voters right down the middle.
Another Schwarzenegger initiative, Prop. 76 (State Spending and School Funding Limits), is trailing by a wide margin, with 70% of likely California voters saying they will vote against it.
Prop. 75 (Public Employee Union Dues), endorsed by the Governor, currently has a commanding majority, with 70% of likely voters saying they will vote in favor.
This poll has a different methodology than the traditional telephone poll but looks promising for the Governor.
Flap senses that Proposition 75, Paycheck Protection Initiative is poised to win decisively.
Pressure will be on the Join Arnold folks to win 74 and 77, although 77 will be challenged by the Democrats in the courts (remember there is a stayed lawsuit about initiative circulation issues).
While the current numbers are generally consistent with other recent surveys conducted by the Field Poll and the Public Policy Institute of California, the S-H-KN survey indicates that support for both Proposition 74 and Proposition 77 is higher than previously reported. In the S-H-KN poll respondents view a facsimile of the actual ballot on their computer screens and make yes or no vote decisions just as they will do in the upcoming special election. No undecided option is offered, although survey respondents can choose not to vote on a proposition just as voters can in the election. Consistent with S-H-KN polling in the 2003 recall election (see www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp for all materials related to this press release), this methodology resulted in far fewer undecided responses than telephone surveying.
The survey also tracked how the other four initiatives on the November ballot are faring.
The S-H-KN poll has the following for the other propositions:
Prop. 73 (Parental Notification) is currently leading by a margin of 54% to 46%, but this margin is within sampling error of the survey.
Prop. 78 is leading 59% to 41%
Prop. 79 is leading 58% to 42%
Since these are competing initiatives whichever receives the most positive votes wins.
Prop. 80 the final statewide initiative to appear on the November ballot (Electric Service Providers Regulation), currently trails by a wide margin. The poll finds that only 37% of likely voters are currently in favor, with 63% opposed.
The media campaigns are in full swing and Flap has noticed a reduced frequency in the Los Angeles market for big unions’ ads.
Are they out of money?
Will the California Teachers Association mortgage their future and/or be headed toward bankruptcy due to unwise media spending?
Stay tuned.
Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 73, Proposition 78, Proposition 79, Proposition 80, Hoover Institution, Proposition 73
Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page
and
Cross Posted to the SoCal Law Blog
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Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bear Flag League, California, Politics, Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 78, Special Election 2005
California Special Election Watch: ROPE-A-DOPE II
Sacramento Bee columnist, Dan Walters, has Ultra-low turnout could spell semi-victory for Schwarzenegger.
By all appearances, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has been set up – or has set himself up – for a sharp setback in the Nov. 8 special election, but in the Alice-in-Wonderland world of California politics being so far down could give him a leg up.
On Flap previously, California Special Election Watch: It is the TURNOUT Stupid.
Uniformly, polls indicate that voters are not impressed with Schwarzenegger’s arguments that two major ballot measures – one overhauling the redrawing of legislative districts, the other imposing new limits on state spending – are needed.
They do, however, appear to be somewhat more amenable to his teacher tenure measure and two others he has endorsed, one requiring parental notification when minors seek abortions and another to require public employee unions to ask permission before taking campaign funds from members.
More importantly, perhaps, voters are turned off by the very notion of having this special election, having been convinced by a massive, union-financed media campaign that Schwarzenegger is wrong to have launched his ballot measure war this year. The latest polling by the Public Policy Institute of California found that more than half of likely voters think the election is a bad idea, but it’s just possible that the negative reaction to Schwarzenegger’s drive could, in a perverse way, produce a better result for him than the current polls indicate, perhaps even a semi-victory.
Absolutely a correct analysis.
Even the Unions seem to be “getting it”.
The Mercury News has Unions say it’s vital for allies in Bay Area not to sit out election.
But other Democratic strategists say the turnout problem is real and the union campaign so far has fallen into a trap that may inadvertently suppress the Democratic vote.
“We’re worried,” said Steve Smith, who is managing Planned Parenthood’s campaign against Proposition 73 because the measure is dead even in polls. The initiative, another the governor is supporting, would require that parents be notified when underage girls seek abortions.
“The kind of campaign that’s been run for months is, `Say no.’ One function of saying no is staying home. That’s a problem for us.”
Now Walters discusses the bungled union media campaign in surpressing their OWN voters.
Flap has noticed a reduction in frequency of anti-Schwarzenegger television ads in the Los Angeles market.
Will the Alliance for a Better California change their message in the last weeks of the campaign?
The tens of million of dollars that are being spent by pro-and anti-sides on the eight ballot measures are aimed, of course, at influencing voters’ decisions, but they may have the auxiliary effect of depressing turnout as voters become even more confused and alienated. And this election may hinge more on how many vote and who they are, rather than on the massive media campaigns.
The PPIC poll found, not surprisingly, that anti-election sentiment is concentrated heavily among Democrats (73 percent) and independents (56 percent). In sharp contrast, 63 percent of Republicans think the election is a good idea, so it may be intrinsically more difficult for Democrats and unions to persuade their voters even to cast ballots.
And then there are the Evangelical Christians and Proposition 73 (Parental Notification for Abortion).
This important base for the Republicans and Schwarzenegger WILL turn-out to vote.
Conservative churches are, with Republican Party encouragement, marshaling turnout for the parental notification measure, Proposition 73.
“If every Christian in California voted for this initiative, it would pass by a landslide,” one pro-Proposition 73 group, the Capitol Resource Institute, says in an appeal that includes suggested church bulletin fliers. Religious conservatives are likely to support Schwarzenegger’s measures.
The Unions are worried and they should be.
Schwarzenegger could possibly win two or three of his endorsed measures, including the Paycheck Protection Initiative which would be a knife to the union’s heart.
Who will the Union bosses blame for the ROPE-A-DOPE?
Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 73
Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page
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Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bear Flag League, California, Politics, Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Special Election 2005
California Special Election Watch: Schwarzenegger Begins GOTV Drive in the OC
The Orange County Register has Get-out-the-vote drive starts in Orange County.
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger kicked off his get-out-the-vote efforts for the Nov. 8 special election here Friday, linking the importance of turnout to the fate of his ballot initiatives.
“It’s all about how many people you bring to the polls,” Schwarzenegger told two dozen volunteers at Orange County Republican Party headquarters. “The grass-roots operation is everything.”
This week, as absentee ballots began reaching local mailboxes, Republican volunteers started phoning those homes. More homes will receive pre-recorded calls from Schwarzenegger and other Republican officials. This weekend, hundreds of volunteers plan precinct walks across Orange County, knocking on doors and leafleting the homes of absentee voters.
It is all about turn-out folks.Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 75, Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 76, Proposition 77
Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page
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Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bear Flag League, California, Politics, Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Special Election 2005
California Special Election Watch: Howard Dean, He’s BACK
The San Francisco Chronicle has Howard Dean back in California this weekend.
Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean is back in California this week — and boy, is it getting crowded with Democratic “could be 2008 presidential candidate material” types in the Golden State. Senator Hillary Clinton is here (in Los Angeles Friday), Virginia Governor Mark Warner was here (speaking to SF Bar on Wednesday) and Senator John Kerry also in the state and making news on special election campaigning (here and gone).
Now State Democratic chair Art Torres has told his supporters by email that Dean “has accepted my invitation to join me in meeting Northern California Democrats about Governor Schwarzenegger’s Special Election plans for California.” Expect Dean and his famous oratory to fire up those grassroots Dems: Torres promises he will “speak about how we must enlist every Democrat to turn out to vote in order to defeat the Republican plans for our state.”
Watch for the rhetoric to fly.
Is anyone from Northern California Bear Flag League attending one of his functions to report?
Oh, here they are:
Dean’s plans are to address supporters on Sunday afternoon at the UFCW 870 Union Hall in Hayward. But party chairs are also about money: Dr. Dean is also slated to appear at a $100 a head fundraising party for Rep. Zoe Lofgren at a union hall in San Jose on Saturday night.
All of the National Democrats are trolling for union dollars this weekend.
Flap wonders if Cindy Sheehan will try to meet with any of them?
Heh.
Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 73, Howard Dean, Cindy Sheehan
Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page
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Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bear Flag League, California, Politics, Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Special Election 2005
California Special Election Watch: Feinstein to Oppose Schwarzenegger’s Reform Initiatives
Sen. Dianne Feinstein will participate in the campaign against Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s agenda in the Nov. 8 special election, as well as an initiative seeking to impose restrictions on minors seeking abortions.
“Feinstein believes that the special election is a mistake. It’s a costly waste of taxpayer dollars,” spokesman Howard Gantman said Friday.
Feinstein, a San Francisco Democrat who also appeals to many independents and Republicans, plans to participate in opponents’ efforts to explain why voters should defeat the initiatives, Gantman said. Such efforts could involve a direct mail campaign.
DiFi is bowling for Union dollars……re-election next year.
Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 73, Dianne Feinstein
Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page
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California Special Election Watch: John Kerry – Election Strategy Backfiring?
A man, who only gave his name as Flipper, holds a sign as Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., speaks along with Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Thursday, Oct. 13, 2005, at fire station number 3 in Los Angeles. Kerry was on hand to speak at a news conference to show his support for voting no on California’s Proposition 75.
The Los Angeles Times has Kerry Joins Fight Against Prop. 75 as Democrats Try to Boost Turnout.
The second national figure to visit calls the limit on political use of union dues one-sided.
Are the Lefties “getting it”?Kerry addressed a broader concern among Schwarzenegger’s opponents: that efforts to discredit the entire election, which they have condemned as a waste of money, could backfire by discouraging some Democrats from participating.
Previously on Flap California Special Election Watch: It is the TURNOUT Stupid
But, the Unions have already spent tens of millions of dollars on early television ads turning off their base from the election and induced the pharmaceutical companies to spend tens of millions more on television dissing their grand socialist plan to provide low cost medicines for everyone (which would induce their base to turn out and vote).
“Some people are saying to themselves, ‘I don’t think I should vote; I don’t like it,’ ” said Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat. “That is exactly the wrong thing to do.”
That sentiment was echoed in an email sent to Democrats Thursday. The e-mail warns that “Arnold Schwarzenegger and his dangerous ballot propositions are gaining momentum … Democratic voter turn-out is criticial for beating Arnold’s propositions.”Shaun Bowler, a political science professor at UC Riverside who studies the initiative process, said few national politicians can intervene successfully in a state ballot fight.
“It’s not clear that the Democrats need any big national figure,” he said. “They don’t need to persuade anybody; they just need to turn out and vote.”
Just think $100 million spent on the campaign, the resulting mortgage of the California Teachers’ Association headquarters building and they pursuade THEIR voters to stay home.
SICK.
Stay tuned.
Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 75
Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page
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Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bear Flag League, California, Politics, Proposition 75, Special Election 2005
California Special Election Watch: Kerry vs. Schwarzenegger on Proposition 75 Paycheck Protection
Calif. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, center, answers a journalist’s question after appearing at the launch for a signature drive for the Jessica’s Law campaign, Thursday, Oct. 13, 2005, in Burbank, Calif. State Senator George Runner, R-Antelope Valley, right, and Assemblywoman Sharon Runnner, R-Antelope Valley, said that if passed by voters, Jessica’s Law would keep sex offenders away from schools, require lifetime GPS monitoring and expand parole periods for offenders among other things. The initiative has until Feb. 21, 2006 to collect 373,816 signatures to qualify for the ballot.
VS.Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., speaks as he stands with Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, left, Thursday, Oct. 13, 2005, at fire station No. 3 in Los Angeles. Kerry was on hand to speak at a news conference to show his support for voting no on California’s Proposition 75.
Reuters has Kerry takes on Schwarzenegger over union power.
Sen. John Kerry, losing Democratic U.S. presidential candidate in 2004 and a possible contender in 2008, took on Republican California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger on Thursday by lobbying against his initiative to curb the power of the state’s labor unions.
Kerry was the second leading national politician this week to weigh in on California’s Prop. 75 ballot initiative, which would require unions to get approval from members before using dues for political causes.
“This represents part of an ongoing effort by the Republican Party to create an unfair playing field, to change the balance of democracy in America,” Kerry said.
“They are willing to try to take away the democratic rights of working Americans,” said the Massachusetts senator, who was speaking to reporters at a fire station with Democratic Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.
Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record), also seen as a possible presidential challenger in 2008, had appeared with Schwarzenegger to campaign for the initiative on Monday.
Democrats have criticized McCain as an out-of-state politician who had no business telling Californians how to vote but Kerry, asked about the same issue, said the ballot measure had national ramifications.
John Kerry is trolling for UNION dollars (if they have any left) like Hillary Clinton who is also in town looking for campaign cash.
Kerry took shots at Schwarzenegger directly, saying the governor who gained power in part by vowing to reject special interest money had “raised three times the special interest money than
Gray Davis,” the incumbent Democrat he defeated.Todd Harris, a spokesman for Schwarzenegger, called Prop. 75 a critical reform for California, where public employee unions have long had enormous influence in the heavily Democratic state legislature.
“There is no question the legislature in Sacramento is bought and paid for by union bosses,” he said. “The fact that the union bosses have been able to spend over $100 million to fight against these reforms is evidence that they have too much power. The governor has said enough is enough.”
Kerry is a LOSER with NO political future. And he is paying for the UNION Label.
McCain has an uncertain presidential future but possesses better bi-partisan appeal.
Flap understands that John McCain has filmed television commercials for Schwarzenegger.
Stay Tuned…….
Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 75
Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page
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Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bear Flag League, California, Politics, Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Special Election 2005
California Special Election Watch: Gay Rights Group STIFFS Schwarzenegger
The ASSociated Press has Equality California to oppose all five Schwarzenegger-backed measures on November ballot.
California’s most prominent gay rights group is telling Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger that it’s payback time for his veto last month of a bill that would have granted marriage rights to same-sex couples. Equality California is taking aim at five ballot proposals the Republican governor is backing in a special election scheduled for November 8.
On the list: Proposition 74, which, among other things, would make it harder for new teachers to gain tenure. Equality California says that would make it easier for districts to target teachers because of their sexual orientation. Proposition 76 would give the governor broad new powers to limit state spending, removing some guaranteed funding to schools and health care programs. The group worries that it could cut off vital services to people living with HIV. And Proposition 77 would change who draws up political districts—Equality California says it’s an attempt to elect more antigay legislators and defeat those who voted for the marriage equality bill.
The group also opposes the two other propositions: One would require doctors to notify parents before performing an abortion on a minor, and the other would force labor unions to get the permission of members before donating dues to political campaigns.
And WHO really thinks this Leftie group would have endorsed these special election propositions if Governor Schwarzenegger had signed the Gay (Same Sex) Marriage Bill?
NOBODY!
Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, gay marriage, same sex marriage, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 73
Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page
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Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bear Flag League, California, Election 2006, Politics, Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Special Election 2005
Arnold Schwarzenegger Watch: Unions Getting Personal With Maria Shriver
The San Francisco Chronicle has What Shriver won’t talk about with Oprah.
Schwarzenegger’s wife backed candidacy but is declining to talk about his initiatives.
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s latest dilemma in his uphill battle toward the Nov. 8 special election carries a catchy musical theme: “How do you solve a problem like Maria?”
Maria — as in the California first lady, as in Democratic royalty, Kennedy clan member, and uber-campaigner for her famous husband.
Shriver is scheduled to appear today as a guest on “Oprah,” but it’s what she won’t say that may speak volumes.
Shriver, a former reporter for NBC News, will appear on the nationally televised talk show as a journalist to discuss “America’s Invisible Poor” — not the top-of-mind political agenda of her famous husband, who conducted 10 radio interviews alone Monday to pump up his lagging polls and fend off attacks from a barrage of negative TV ads regarding his special election agenda.
So, what?
The pro-union, leftie San Francisco Chronicle now gets personal about California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s wife, Maria Shriver.
This personal scrutiny of Shriver is NOT on the society page or even the editorial page page but on a news page.
Why?
To embarass the Governor.
William Randolph Hearst couldn’t have done a better hatchet job.
Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 73, John McCain
Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page
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Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bear Flag League, California, Media, Media Bias, Politics, Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Special Election 2005
California Special Election Watch: The Los Angeles Times on Schwarzenegger and McCain
At a news conference at a Burbank hotel, Sen. McCain was questioned about Schwarzenegger’s fundraising record.
Definitely NO LOVE from the Los Angeles Times spin of the Schwarzenegger – McCain campaign events yesterday in Burbank and Oakland.
Previously on Flap, California Special Election Watch: Schwarzenegger and McCain The Burbank Event
The Los Angeles Times has McCain Joins Gov. to Push Ballot Measures.
Two try to boost interest in initiatives. But in light of Schwarzenegger’s fundraising, some question the senator’s backing.
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who has collected more than $76 million in contributions since running in the recall election two years ago, campaigned Monday with U.S. Sen. John McCain, who once called former Gov. Gray Davis’ push to raise $26 million “disgraceful.”
McCain appeared with the governor at campaign events in Burbank and Oakland, touting the initiatives that Schwarzenegger wants passed in the Nov. 8 special election. By bringing in a senator who built an identity challenging the status quo, Schwarzenegger was trying to stoke interest in the ballot measures, which have been trailing badly in public opinion polls.
Contrast this Peter Nicholas and Robert Salladay written piece with that of the San Francisco Chronicle, written by Michael R. Blood, Associated Press Writer.
And where is the pool reporting written by the Los Angeles Times’ Robert Sallady?And the Los Angeles Times wonders why it has lost circulation?
How do you spell BIAS?
Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 73, John McCain
Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page