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Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE – House
Election Projection has final United States House Election 2006 Projections:
Current: 232 GOP, 202 DEM, 1 IND
Projected: 208 GOP, 227 DEM, 0 IND
DEM +25, GOP -24, IND -1Election Projection is forecasting a net loss of 25 House seats and loss of GOP control of the House. While this is a pessimistic account, I do not forsee any other likely scenario. Here is Election Projections summary of the race:
Summary of Contested House Races
State Major Candidates Projected Result Arizona – CD 1 Rick Renzi (R)-inc vs Ellen Simon (D) Weak GOP Hold Arizona – CD 5 J.D. Hayworth (R)-inc vs Harry Mitchell (D) Weak DEM Gain Arizona – CD 8 OPEN: R. Graf (R) vs G. Giffords (D) Mod DEM Gain California – CD 11 Richard Pombo (R)-inc vs Jerry McNerny (D) Weak GOP Hold Colorado – CD 4 M. Musgrave (R)-inc vs A. Paccione (D) Weak GOP Hold Colorado – CD 7 OPEN: O’Donnell (R) vs Perlmutter (D) Weak DEM Gain Conn – CD 2 Rob Simmons (R)-inc vs Joe Courtney (D) Weak DEM Gain Conn – CD 4 Chris Shays (R)-inc vs Diane Farrell (D) Weak GOP Hold Conn – CD 5 Nancy Johnson (R)-inc vs Chris Murphy (D) Weak DEM Gain Florida – CD 13 OPEN: V. Buchanan (R) vs C. Jennings (D) Weak DEM Gain Florida – CD 16 OPEN: J. Negron (R) vs T. Mahoney (D) Weak DEM Gain Florida – CD 22 Clay Shaw (R)-inc vs Ron Klein (D) Weak DEM Gain Georgia – CD 8 Jim Marshall (D)-inc vs “Mac” Collins (R) Weak DEM Hold Georgia – CD 12 John Barrow (D)-inc vs Max Burns (R) Weak DEM Hold Idaho – CD 1 Sali (R)-inc vs Grant (D) Weak GOP Hold Illinois – CD 6 OPEN: P. Roskam(R)-inc vs T. Duckworth(D) Weak GOP Hold Illinois – CD 8 M. Bean (D)-inc vs D. McSweeney (R) Weak DEM Hold Indiana – CD 2 Chris Chocola (R)-inc vs Joseph Donnelly (D) Weak DEM Gain Indiana – CD 8 John Hostettler (R)-inc vs Brad Ellsworth (D) Mod DEM Gain Indiana – CD 9 Michael Sodrel (R)-inc vs Baron Hill (D) Weak GOP Hold Iowa – CD 1 OPEN: Mike Whalen (R) vs Bruce Braley (D) Mod DEM Gain Kentucky – CD 3 Anne Northup (R)-inc vs John Yarmuth (D) Weak GOP Hold Kentucky – CD 4 Geoff Davis (R)-inc vs Ken Lucas (D) Weak GOP Hold Minnesota – CD 1 Gil Gutknecht, Jr. (R) vs Tim Walz (D) Weak GOP Hold Minnesota – CD 6 OPEN: M. Bachmann (R) vs P. Wetterling (D) Weak GOP Hold Nevada – CD 3 Jon Porter (R) vs Tessa Hafen (D) Porter +4.8 New Hamp – CD 2 Charles Bass (R)-inc vs Paul Hodes (D) Weak DEM Gain New Mexico – CD 1 Heather Wilson (R)-inc vs Patricia Madrid (D) Weak DEM Gain New York – CD 19 Sue Kelly (R)-inc vs John Hall (D) Weak GOP Hold New York – CD 20 John Sweeney (R)-inc vs Kirsten Gillibrand (D) Weak DEM Gain New York – CD 24 OPEN: R. Meier (R) vs M. Arcuri (D) Weak DEM Gain New York – CD 25 James Walsh (R)-inc vs Dan Maffei (D) Weak GOP Hold New York – CD 26 Thomas Reynolds (R)-inc vs Jack Davis (D) Weak GOP Hold New York – CD 29 Randy Kuhl (R)-inc vs Eric Massa (D) Weak GOP Hold N. Carolina – CD 8 Robin Hayes (R)-inc vs Larry Kissell (D) Weak GOP Hold N. Carolina – CD 11 Charles Taylor (R)-inc vs Heath Shuler (D) Weak DEM Gain Ohio – CD 1 Steve Chabot (R)-inc vs John Cranley (D) Weak DEM Gain Ohio – CD 2 Jean Schmidt (R)-inc vs Wuslin (D) Weak GOP Hold Ohio – CD 15 Deborah Pryce (R)-inc vs Mary Jo Kilroy (D) Weak DEM Gain Ohio – CD 18 OPEN: Joy Padgett (R) vs Zack Space (D) Weak DEM Gain Penn – CD 4 Melissa Hart (R)-inc vs Jason Altmire (D) Weak GOP Hold Penn – CD 6 Jim Gerlach (R)-inc vs Lois Murphy (D) Weak DEM Gain Penn – CD 7 Curt Weldon (R)-inc vs Joseph Sestak (D) Weak DEM Gain Penn – CD 8 M. Fitzpatrick (R)-inc vs P. Murphy (D) Weak GOP Hold Penn – CD 10 Don Sherwood (R)-inc vs Chris Carney (D) Weak DEM Gain Texas – CD 22 OPEN: Sekula-Gibbs (R-WI) vs Lampson (D) Weak DEM Gain Vermont – CD 1 OPEN: P. Welch (D) vs M. Rainville (R) Mod DEM Gain Virginia CD-2 Thelma Drake (R)-inc vs Philip Kellam (D) Weak GOP Hold Washington – CD 8 Dan Reichert (R)-inc vs Darcy Burner (D) Weak GOP Hold Wisconsin – CD 8 OPEN: John Gard (R) vs Steve Kagen (D) Weak DEM Gain Wyoming – CD 1 Barbara Cubin (R)-inc vs Gary Trauner (D) Weak GOP Hold BOLD – party turnover
Race ratings: - “Weak” – less than 5%
- “Mod” – 5% to 15%
- “Strong” – greater than 15%
For projected margins of victory, click here The Real Clear Politics House Summary chart is here.
Current House (232 R, 202 D, 1 I): Democrats Need to Pick Up 15 Seats For ControlRepublican SeatsLeans Dem (13)Toss Up (14)Leans GOP (21)Leans GOP (0)Toss Up (2)Leans Dem (4)
The GOP House Debacle has arrived. Robert Novak has a conservative loss of 18 seats for the GOP. His analysis is here.
The next Speaker of the House will be Nancy Pelosi (D-California).
For election night coverage NZ Bear at Truth Laid Bear has set up an election tracker page here.
Previous:
Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE – Senate
United States House 2006 Election Watch: Rush Limbaugh and the Coming GOP DEBACLE
Michael Ramirez on the Coming GOP Debacle
United States House 2006 Election Watch: SEA OF BLUE
Election 2006 Watch: The Coming Republican DEBACLE
Technorati Tags: Election2006, GOP, Democrats
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California Election 2006 Watch: Flap’s Endorsements
Xinhua: California election turnout expected to be modest
Overall, turnout is expected to be modest with roughly 8.7 million – or 55 percent – of California’s 15.8 million registered voters likely to cast ballots by the time polls close at 8 p.m., according to California Secretary of State Bruce McPherson.
That would put turnout above the 51 percent of four years ago, when Governor Gray Davis won reelection, but below the 60 percent of October 2003, when voters recalled Davis and replaced him with Arnold Schwarzenegger.
McPherson projected that 44 percent of the votes cast in the Tuesday election will be by absentee ballot. By Friday afternoon, the ballots of at least 1.8 million voters had already reached county election offices.
Ok, here are the goods – Flap’s Endorsements for California’s Gubernatorial General Election:
Governor: Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)
Lt. Governor: Tom McClintock (R)
Secretary of State: Bruce McPherson (R)
Controller: Tony Strickland (R)
Treasurer: Claude Parrish (R)
Attorney General: Chuck Poochigian (R)
Insurance Commissioner: Steve Poizner (R)
State Board of Equalization, 2nd District: Bill Leonard (R)
United States Senate: Richard “Dick” Mountjoy (R)
United States Representative, 24th District: Elton Gallegly (R)
California State Assembly, 37th District: Audra Strickland (R)
California Supreme Court Associate Justice Joyce L. Kennard – YES
California Supreme Court Associate Justice Carol Corrigan – YES
California Court of Appeal, 2nd Appellate District:
ROGER W. BOREN – Appointed by Gov. Deukmejian – YES
VICTORIA CHAVEZ – Appointed by Gov. Schwarzenegger – YES
PATTI S. KITCHING – Appointed by Gov Wilson – YES
RICHARD DENNIS ALDRICH – Appointed by Gov. Pete Wilson – YES
NORMAN L. EPSTEIN – Appointed by Gov Deukmejian – YES
THOMAS L. WILLHITE, JR – Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger – YES
STEVEN C. SUZUKAWA –Appointed by Gov. Schwarzenegger – YES
SANDY R. KRIEGLER – Appointed by Gov. Schwarzenegger – YES
FRED WOODS – Appointed by Gov. Deukmejian – YESVentura County Community College District, Area 2: Cheryl Heitmann
Conejo Valley Unified School District: Michael “Mike” Dunn
City of Thousand Oaks City Council: Andrew “Andy” fox, Dennis C. Gillette, Elaine C. McKearn
Conejo Recreation and Park District: Joe Gibson, Susan Lauer Holt, Michael D. “Mike” Berger
California Propositions:
Proposition 1A = YES
Proposition 1B = NO
Proposition 1C = NO
Proposition 1D = NO
Proposition 1E = NO
Proposition 83 = YES
Proposition 84 = NO
Proposition 85 = YES
Proposition 86 = NO
Proposition 87 = NO
Proposition 88 = NO
Proposition 89 = NO
Proposition 90 = YESPolls will be open from 7 AM until 8 PM tomorrow.
Please vote.
Flap knows you will be glad you did!
Technorati Tags: California, election2006, ArnoldSchwarzenegger
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Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE – Senate
Election Projection has final United States Senate Election 2006 Projections:
Current: 55 GOP, 44 DEM, 1 IND
Projected: 49 GOP, 49 DEM, 2 IND
DEM +5, GOP -6, IND +1Election Projection is forecasting a net loss of six Senate seats and loss of GOP control of the Senate. While this is a pessimistic account, I do not forsee any other likely scenario. Here is election Projections summary of the race:
Summary of Senate Races
State Major Candidates Projected Result Arizona Jon Kyl (R)-inc vs Jim Pederson (D) Mod GOP Hold California Dianne Feinstein (D)-inc vs Richard Mountjoy (R) Strong DEM Hold Connecticut Lieberman(I) / Lamont(D) / Schlesinger(R) Mod IND Gain Delaware Tom Carper (D)-inc vs Jan Ting? (R) Strong DEM Hold Florida Bill Nelson (D)-inc vs Katherine Harris? (R) Strong DEM Hold Hawaii Daniel Akaka (D)-inc vs Cynthia Thielen (R) Strong DEM Hold Indiana Richard Lugar (R)-inc (unopposed) Strong GOP Hold Maine Olympia Snowe (R)-inc vs Jean Hay Bright (D) Strong GOP Hold Maryland OPEN: Ben Cardin (D) vs Michael Steele (R) Weak DEM Hold Massachusetts Ted Kennedy (D)-inc vs Kenneth Chase (R) Strong DEM Hold Michigan Debbie Stabenow (D)-inc vs Mike Bouchard (R) Mod DEM Hold Minnesota OPEN: Amy Klobuchar (D) vs Mark Kennedy (R) Strong DEM Hold Mississippi Trent Lott (R)-inc vs Erik Fleming (D) Strong GOP Hold Missouri Jim Talent (R)-inc vs Claire McCaskill (D) Weak DEM Gain Montana Conrad Burns (R)-inc vs Jon Tester (D) Weak DEM Gain Nebraska Ben Nelson (D)-inc vs Peter Ricketts (R) Strong DEM Hold Nevada John Ensign (R)-inc vs Jack Carter (D) Mod GOP Hold New Jersey Robert Menendez (D)-inc vs Tom Kean, Jr. (R) Weak DEM Hold New Mexico Jeff Bingaman (D)-inc vs Allen McCulloch (R) Strong DEM Hold New York Hillary Clinton (D)-inc vs John Spencer (R) Strong DEM Hold North Dakota Kent Conrad (DNL)-inc vs Dwight Grotberg (R) Strong DEM Hold Ohio Mike DeWine (R)-inc vs Sherrod Brown (D) Mod DEM Gain Pennsylvania Rick Santorum (R)-inc vs Bob Casey, Jr. (D) Mod DEM Gain Rhode Island L. Chafee (R)-inc vs S. Whitehouse (D) Weak DEM Gain Tennessee OPEN: Bob Corker (R) vs Harold Ford, Jr. (D) Weak GOP Hold Texas Kay Hutchison (R)-inc vs Barbara Radnofsky (D) Strong GOP Hold Utah Orrin Hatch (R)-inc vs Pete Ashdown (D) Strong GOP Hold Vermont OPEN: Bernie Sanders (I) vs Richard Tarrant (R) Strong IND Hold Virginia George Allen (R)-inc vs James Webb, Jr. (D) Weak DEM Gain Washington Maria Cantwell (D)-inc vs Mike McGavick (R) Mod DEM Hold West Virginia Robert Byrd (D)-inc vs John Raese (R) Strong DEM Hold Wisconsin Herb Kohl (D)-inc vs Robert Lorge (R) Strong DEM Hold Wyoming Craig Thomas (R)-inc vs Dale Groutage (D) Strong GOP Hold BOLD – party turnover
Race ratings: - “Weak” – less than 5%
- “Mod” – 5% to 15%
- “Strong” – greater than 15%
For projected margins of victory, click here The Real Clear Politics Senate Summary chart is here.
Likely DemLeans DemToss UpLeans GOPLikely GOPMI: Stabenow (D) < <Arizona Kyl (R)* 49.3% vs. Pederson (D) 40.7% | Chart Kyl +8.6% Connecticut Lieberman (I) 49.8% vs. Lamont (D) 38.0% | Chart Lieberman +11.8% Maryland Steele (R) 45.0% vs. Cardin (D) 48.7% | Chart Cardin +3.7% Michigan Bouchard (R) 37.8% vs. Stabenow (D)* 52.3% | Chart Stabenow +14.5% Minnesota Kennedy (R) 37.7% vs. Klobuchar (D) 53.0% | Chart Klobuchar +15.3% Missouri Talent (R)* 45.3% vs. McCaskill (D) 48.5% | Chart McCaskill +3.2% Montana Burns (R)* 45.5% vs. Tester (D) 48.5% | Chart Tester +3.0% New Jersey Kean (R) 41.8% vs. Menendez (D)* 48.2% | Chart Menendez +6.4% Ohio DeWine (R)* 43.3% vs. Brown (D) 53.3% | Chart Brown +10.0% Pennsylvania Santorum (R)* 40.8% vs. Casey (D) 52.3% | Chart Casey +11.5% Rhode Island Chafee (R) 43.3% vs. Whitehouse (D) 48.7% | Chart Whitehouse +5.4% Tennessee Corker (R) 51.0% vs. Ford (D) 43.6% | Chart Corker +7.4% Virginia Allen (R)* 46.8% vs. Webb (D) 48.3% | Chart Webb +1.5% Washington McGavick (R) 40.5% vs. Cantwell (D)* 53.8% | Chart Cantwell +13.3% The GOP Senate Debacle has arrived. One race change will make the result transfer to GOP control. Flap feels this most likely will occur in either Rhode Island or Montana.
Stay tuned for House Projections which ARE even more bruising to the GOP later in the evening.
For election night coverage NZ Bear at Truth Laid Bear has set up an election tracker page here.
Previous:
United States House 2006 Election Watch: Rush Limbaugh and the Coming GOP DEBACLE
Michael Ramirez on the Coming GOP Debacle
United States House 2006 Election Watch: SEA OF BLUE
Election 2006 Watch: The Coming Republican DEBACLE
Technorati Tags: Election2006, GOP, Democrats
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Senator Joe Lieberman Watch: Final JOEMENTUM
Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., left, marches in the Connecticut Veterans Day Parade with U.S. Rep. Nancy Johnson, right, and radio personality Brad Davis, center, in Hartford, Conn., Sunday, Nov. 5, 2006.
Quinnipiac University: November 6, 2006 – Lieberman Has 12-Point Lead In Connecticut, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds
Incumbent Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman holds a 50 – 38 percent likely voter lead over Democratic candidate Ned Lamont, with 8 percent for Republican Alan Schlesinger, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Five percent are undecided.
This compares to a 49 – 37 percent Sen. Lieberman lead over Lamont, with 8 percent for Schlesinger in a November 1 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, Lieberman leads Lamont 79 – 3 percent among likely Republican voters, with 16 percent for Schlesinger, and 52 – 35 – 7 percent among independent voters, while likely Democratic voters back Lamont 66 – 27 percent.
“For Connecticut voters, Sen. Joseph Lieberman’s experience and record outweighed challenger Ned Lamont’s position on the war in Iraq,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.
“It appears that Ned Lamont peaked in August and that Alan Schlesinger was never able to convince his fellow Republicans that he deserved their support.”
The Fat Lady has SUNG in this race.
The NUTROOTS have lost yet another race and Ned Lamont has WASTED millions of his own funds.
Will Lieberman switch to the GOP?
Perhaps……..or switch to the Bush Administration and a GOP Governor will appoint a GOP Senator.
Stay tuned………
Hugh Hewitt highlights Lamont’s desperation – calling Joe Lieberman INSANE.
Please………..
Previous:
Senator Joe Lieberman Watch: Landrieu stumps for Lieberman
Senator Joe Lieberman Watch: Latest Quinnipiac University Poll Lieberman Leads 52-35
Senator Joe Lieberman Watch: First Debate – Lieberman Accuses Lamont of “Finger-Pointingâ€
Senator Joe Lieberman Watch: No Man’s Land?
Senator Joe Lieberman Watch: Lieberman Defends Civil Rights Record
Senator Joe Lieberman Watch: Richie Rich and the Two Anti-Semites
Technorati Tags: JoeLieberman, NedLamont
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Day By Day by Chris Muir November 6, 2006