Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE – House
Posted by Flap in Democrats, Election 2006, GOP, Politics
Election Projection has final United States House Election 2006 Projections:
Current: 232 GOP, 202 DEM, 1 IND
Projected: 208 GOP, 227 DEM, 0 IND
DEM +25, GOP -24, IND -1
Election Projection is forecasting a net loss of 25 House seats and loss of GOP control of the House. While this is a pessimistic account, I do not forsee any other likely scenario. Here is Election Projections summary of the race:
| Summary of Contested House Races |
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| State | Major Candidates | Projected Result |
| Arizona – CD 1 | Rick Renzi (R)-inc vs Ellen Simon (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| Arizona – CD 5 | J.D. Hayworth (R)-inc vs Harry Mitchell (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| Arizona – CD 8 | OPEN: R. Graf (R) vs G. Giffords (D) | Mod DEM Gain |
| California – CD 11 | Richard Pombo (R)-inc vs Jerry McNerny (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| Colorado – CD 4 | M. Musgrave (R)-inc vs A. Paccione (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| Colorado – CD 7 | OPEN: O’Donnell (R) vs Perlmutter (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| Conn – CD 2 | Rob Simmons (R)-inc vs Joe Courtney (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| Conn – CD 4 | Chris Shays (R)-inc vs Diane Farrell (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| Conn – CD 5 | Nancy Johnson (R)-inc vs Chris Murphy (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| Florida – CD 13 | OPEN: V. Buchanan (R) vs C. Jennings (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| Florida – CD 16 | OPEN: J. Negron (R) vs T. Mahoney (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| Florida – CD 22 | Clay Shaw (R)-inc vs Ron Klein (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| Georgia – CD 8 | Jim Marshall (D)-inc vs “Mac” Collins (R) | Weak DEM Hold |
| Georgia – CD 12 | John Barrow (D)-inc vs Max Burns (R) | Weak DEM Hold |
| Idaho – CD 1 | Sali (R)-inc vs Grant (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| Illinois – CD 6 | OPEN: P. Roskam(R)-inc vs T. Duckworth(D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| Illinois – CD 8 | M. Bean (D)-inc vs D. McSweeney (R) | Weak DEM Hold |
| Indiana – CD 2 | Chris Chocola (R)-inc vs Joseph Donnelly (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| Indiana – CD 8 | John Hostettler (R)-inc vs Brad Ellsworth (D) | Mod DEM Gain |
| Indiana – CD 9 | Michael Sodrel (R)-inc vs Baron Hill (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| Iowa – CD 1 | OPEN: Mike Whalen (R) vs Bruce Braley (D) | Mod DEM Gain |
| Kentucky – CD 3 | Anne Northup (R)-inc vs John Yarmuth (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| Kentucky – CD 4 | Geoff Davis (R)-inc vs Ken Lucas (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| Minnesota – CD 1 | Gil Gutknecht, Jr. (R) vs Tim Walz (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| Minnesota – CD 6 | OPEN: M. Bachmann (R) vs P. Wetterling (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| Nevada – CD 3 | Jon Porter (R) vs Tessa Hafen (D) | Porter +4.8 |
| New Hamp – CD 2 | Charles Bass (R)-inc vs Paul Hodes (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| New Mexico – CD 1 | Heather Wilson (R)-inc vs Patricia Madrid (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| New York – CD 19 | Sue Kelly (R)-inc vs John Hall (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| New York – CD 20 | John Sweeney (R)-inc vs Kirsten Gillibrand (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| New York – CD 24 | OPEN: R. Meier (R) vs M. Arcuri (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| New York – CD 25 | James Walsh (R)-inc vs Dan Maffei (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| New York – CD 26 | Thomas Reynolds (R)-inc vs Jack Davis (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| New York – CD 29 | Randy Kuhl (R)-inc vs Eric Massa (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| N. Carolina – CD 8 | Robin Hayes (R)-inc vs Larry Kissell (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| N. Carolina – CD 11 | Charles Taylor (R)-inc vs Heath Shuler (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| Ohio – CD 1 | Steve Chabot (R)-inc vs John Cranley (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| Ohio – CD 2 | Jean Schmidt (R)-inc vs Wuslin (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| Ohio – CD 15 | Deborah Pryce (R)-inc vs Mary Jo Kilroy (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| Ohio – CD 18 | OPEN: Joy Padgett (R) vs Zack Space (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| Penn – CD 4 | Melissa Hart (R)-inc vs Jason Altmire (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| Penn – CD 6 | Jim Gerlach (R)-inc vs Lois Murphy (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| Penn – CD 7 | Curt Weldon (R)-inc vs Joseph Sestak (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| Penn – CD 8 | M. Fitzpatrick (R)-inc vs P. Murphy (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| Penn – CD 10 | Don Sherwood (R)-inc vs Chris Carney (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| Texas – CD 22 | OPEN: Sekula-Gibbs (R-WI) vs Lampson (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| Vermont – CD 1 | OPEN: P. Welch (D) vs M. Rainville (R) | Mod DEM Gain |
| Virginia CD-2 | Thelma Drake (R)-inc vs Philip Kellam (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| Washington – CD 8 | Dan Reichert (R)-inc vs Darcy Burner (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| Wisconsin – CD 8 | OPEN: John Gard (R) vs Steve Kagen (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| Wyoming – CD 1 | Barbara Cubin (R)-inc vs Gary Trauner (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| BOLD – party turnover |
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| Race ratings:
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| For projected margins of victory, click here | ||
The Real Clear Politics House Summary chart is here.
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The GOP House Debacle has arrived. Robert Novak has a conservative loss of 18 seats for the GOP. His analysis is here.
The next Speaker of the House will be Nancy Pelosi (D-California).
For election night coverage NZ Bear at Truth Laid Bear has set up an election tracker page here.
Previous:
Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE – Senate
United States House 2006 Election Watch: Rush Limbaugh and the Coming GOP DEBACLE
Michael Ramirez on the Coming GOP Debacle
United States House 2006 Election Watch: SEA OF BLUE
Election 2006 Watch: The Coming Republican DEBACLE
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