• Del.icio.us Links

    links for 2011-02-06

    • Saying it received an "onslaught of personal attacks," a Colorado nonprofit announced in a news release today that it was canceling a scheduled May appearance in Glendale by former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin.

      Palin, the former Alaskan governor and possible 2012 Republican presidential candidate, was to be the keynote speaker at the May 2 Patriots & Warriors Gala at the Infinity Park Event Center in Glendale.

      The event, sponsored by the Sharon K. Pacheco Foundation, was announced to the media on Friday. The group said today the event had been canceled because of "safety concerns resulting from an onslaught of negative feedback received by the organization."

      ++++++

      Now, Sarah Palin has an open date for the NBC Presidential debate at the Reagan Presidential library.

      Will she participate?

      (tags: sarah_palin)
    • The fate-turning spectacle of the Iowa caucuses will unfold a year from today – or even sooner – but where are the big names?

      A string of prospects have visited Iowa in the past few weeks, dropping hints about their plans. Yet the three Republicans at the top of national presidential preference polls have left few clues in Iowa.

      What's up with Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee? Despite their public silence, forces are in motion that could shape an Iowa strategy for Romney and lay the groundwork for a Palin campaign here. But Iowa and national strategists see few signs pointing to a sequel to Huckabee's 2008 campaign.

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      Mike Huckabee is not going to run….

  • Barack Obama,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 California Poll Watch: Obama Way Ahead of All GOP Contenders

    President Obama is way ahead in Left Coast California ccording to the latest PPP Presidential poll. The entire poll is here (Pdf).

    Republicans spent a lot of emotional energy on California in 2010, believing for most of the year that they had a serious chance at winning the races for Senate and Governor. They won’t have to deal with false hope followed by disappointment next year- voters in the state strongly dislike all of the leading Republican Presidential candidates and Barack Obama defeats each of them by a wide margin in the state. It’s pretty clear 21 months out this time that GOP hopes in California are just about zero.
    Obama is popular in the state, although not overwhelmingly so, with 53% of voters approving of his job performance to 41% who disapprove. Usually those kinds of numbers alone wouldn’t lead to the sorts of margins he has over the Republican field, which are 15 points over Mike Huckabee at 54-39, 20 points over Mitt Romney at 56-36, 24 points over Newt Gingrich at 58-34, and a whooping 31 points over Sarah Palin at 62-31.

    What allows Obama to hold his large leads is the incredible unpopularity of the Republican candidate field. None of the candidates can top a 32% favorability there- that’s Mitt Romney who is, relatively speaking, the ‘most popular’ of the Republican candidates. 46% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him. After that it’s Mike Huckabee at a 29/47 spread, Newt Gingrich at 25/55, and Sarah Palin at 28% rating her favorably and a whooping 67% saying they have a negative opinion of her.

    This supports the MEME of the California Republican Party brand is in the toilet. And, it pretty much is.

    In the California match ups Obama benefits partly because of a unified Democratic base but also because of an overwhelming advantage with independents and because even Republicans are somewhat hesitant to commit to supporting this crop of candidates. With independents he’s up 19 points on Romney, 20 on Huckabee, 31 on Gingrich, and 44 on Palin. And while Obama takes anywhere from 82-90% of the Democratic vote in the four match ups, Huckabee has only 77% of Republicans supporting him and that goes down to 75% for Romney, 71% for Gingrich, and 67% for Palin.

    President Obama will do a few rallys in California and a whole lot of fundraising to use in Colorado and North Carolina.

    Of particular note is how poorly Sarah Palin does in California and other states against President Obama.

    Palin’s 31 point deficit in California would be the first time a Republican candidate lost the state by more than 30 points since Alf Landon went down in Franklin D. Roosevelt’s first reelection in 1936. It’s been a week of potential history making for Palin in our polls. She trailed Obama by 8 points in South Dakota, which would make her the first Republican to lose that state since 1964. She trailed him by 6 points in South Carolina, which would mark the first Democratic win there since 1976. She trailed him by 8 in Arizona, which Democrats have only won once since 1948 and certainly not by that kind of margin. And although she led by a point in Nebraska she’d be perilously close to being the first Republican to lose that state since 1964 even though Democrats haven’t come within 15 points of winning statewide since Barry Goldwater.

  • Barack Obama,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney and Huckabee Even With Obama – Others Not So Much

    Again, another Rasmussen poll on head to head GOP candidates for President Vs. President Obama.

    An early look at potential 2012 match-ups indicates that the election is likely shaping up as a referendum on President Obama. That’s typical when an incumbent runs for reelection.

    The numbers show that Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee essentially run even with Obama at this point. Romney is nominally up two points, 44% to 42%, while Huckabee is tied with the president at 43% apiece.

    Three other well-known potential candidates, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul trail the president. Palin is down by 11 points, 49% to 38%, Gingrich by eight, 47% to 39%, and Paul by nine, 44% to 35%.

    Romney, Palin, and Huckabee lead in early Republican Primary polling. 

    But, neither Sarah Palin nor Mike Huckabee will be in the race if one or the other runs. I don’t think Mike Huckabee will run and I doubt with her recent polling that Sarah Palin will either.

    My best bet is that Mitch Daniels and Jon Huntsman will be the anti-Romney candidates. When or if either of them fails, then they will be named the Vice President nominee to unify the party.

    Seven lesser-known candidates trail by anywhere from 10 to 17 percentage points. However, the most significant finding is that regardless of what GOP candidate is named, the president earns between 42% and 49%. This suggests the campaign is starting off in a fairly competitive environment, though much can change in the next year-and-a-half.

    If the president’s job approval ratings improve from this point forward, it is likely that his support will increase against all Republican candidates. If his job approval ratings fall, his numbers are likely to weaken against all potential candidates. It is reasonably safe to assume that the president’s actual vote total on Election Day 2012 will be close to his overall job approval rating.

    It’s also worth noting that a great deal of caution must be taken in terms of interpreting individual results. It is far from clear which candidates will seek the Republican nomination and who ultimately will be nominated. At this point in 2008, everybody assumed the Democratic nominee would be Hillary Clinton, and Rudy Giuliani was leading the Republican field. One candidate on our list, Mike Pence, has already dropped out of the race. Other names will be tested in the coming weeks.