• American Economy,  Polling

    Poll Watch: United States Economic Confidence Remains Low

    June 28, 2011 /

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    After surging in May, Americans’ economic confidence receded in early June and remains near its 2011 low, averaging -33 in the week ending June 26. This is down seven percentage points from the week ending May 29 and down a similar amount compared with the same week a year ago.

    U.S. economic confidence peaked this year at -18 in February and then generally declined, reaching -39 during week ending April 24, as gas prices surged and economic activity slowed. Confidence increased in May, averaging -26, likely in response to the news of Osama bin Laden’s death in a U.S. military raid.

    Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index combines two measures: one assessing Americans’ views about whether the U.S. economy is “getting better” or “getting worse,” and the second involving Americans’ ratings of current economic conditions as “excellent,” “good,” “only fair,” or “poor.” Both ratings have deteriorated thus far in June.

    Only 31% say that the U.S. economy is getting better.

    The graph:

    45 % of Americans rate the American economy is poor:

    So, what does this all mean?

    Perception of the economy is important to voters. If President Obama and his cronies in the Congress wish to be re-elected they will have to make the case that their stewardship of the economy has been successful. Poll numbers are not demonstrating this perception.

    The worsening of Gallup’s economic confidence measure during June may be due in part to the dissipation of the “halo effect” surrounding the death of bin Laden. Confidence has now moved back near the April 2011 low. This suggests that the consumer benefits associated with steadily declining gas prices at the pump — down 14 cents per gallon in the past two weeks — are being offset by other factors. One such factor might just be that gas prices remain 82 cents per gallon higher than they were a year ago. Another could be the continuing dismal jobs situation.

    Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke last week seemed to add to the growing economic pessimism, noting that the Fed has reduced its 2011 growth forecast for the U.S. economy. Wall Street continues to suffer as a result of the Fed’s apparent confirmation of the economic “soft patch” and the financial problems in Europe. The battle over raising the debt ceiling has not disrupted the money markets to this point, but certainly represents another negative for overall economic confidence.

    It may be that declining gas prices will eventually lead to improved consumer confidence and increased consumer spending, which could make the current economic soft patch modest and transitory. At this point, however, Gallup’s monitoring of economic confidence does not support that idea.

  • Barack Obama,  Day By Day,  Eric Holder

    Day By Day June 27, 2011 – Order Up

    June 28, 2011 /

    Day By Day by Chris Muir

    The MSM is blind to what Attorney General Eric Holder and the President do. It is all about social justice and appeasing their voter constituencies with them. But, the GOP nominee will NOT be a John McCain this time and will take it to them – MSM notwithstanding.

    This is 2011, not 2008 when the LEFT blogs drove stories to their friends at the New York Times and the television networks.

    I am looking forward to Andrew Bretibart, Matt Drudge and the fireworks – even after the 4th of July.

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  • Twitter

    @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-06-28

    June 28, 2011 /

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