• Mitt Romney,  President 2012

    President 2012: Mitt Romney Wins Florida and Then Shoots Himself in the Foot with Insensitive Comment

    For those who think Mitt Romney, the Bain Company Investment Banker, will be a disaster for the Republican Party, there is fresh evidence this morning.

    In an interview with CNN Wednesday morning that should have been a Florida victory lap, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney made a fumble that could give rivals an attack ad sound bite.

    Asked about his economic plan, Romney said repeatedly that he was not concerned with very poor Americans, but was focused instead on helping the middle class.

    Romney explained that he was confident that food stamps, housing vouchers, Medicaid and other assistance would keep the poor afloat — he pledged to fix holes in that safety net “if it needs repair.” He repeated past statements that his main focus is the middle class because those people, in his opinion, have been hardest hit by the recession (President Obama also has focused many of his efforts on the middle class).

    But Romney’s awkward phrasing could give fuel to critics who argue that he does not empathize with the poorest Americans.

    “I’m not concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there,” Romney told CNN. “If it needs repair, I’ll fix it. I’m not concerned about the very rich, they’re doing just fine. I’m concerned about the very heart of the America, the 90 percent, 95 percent of Americans who right now are struggling.”

    Sorry Mittens, but many of us do not have a $200 million fortune to tide us over when business conditions go south.

    I am also sorry, but this guy is just out of touch with everyday Americans.

    Let’s hope that Newt Gingrich can make a comeback or the GOP convention has some insight and chooses someone else – ANYBODY.

    If not, President Obama will be re-elected in November and I suspect quite easily.

  • Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Trouble Ahead for Romney After Florida?

    Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney calls voters, as he is seated with volunteers, Tuesday, Jan. 31, 2012, at his campaign office in Tampa, Florida

    Apparently so, according to new polls.

    Mitt Romney’s headed for a big victory in Florida today but new PPP polls in Missouri and Ohio find the road ahead might be a little bit tougher for him, especially if Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum drops out of the race and leaves a single conservative alternative.

    Rick Santorum is leading the way for next week’s ‘beauty contest’ primary in Missouri with 45% to 34% for Romney, and 13% for Ron Paul. Newt Gingrich is not on the ballot for that, but he will be in the picture for Missouri’s caucus and leads the way for that with 30% to 28% for Santorum, 24% for Romney, and 11% for Paul.

    In Ohio Gingrich is at 26% to 25% for Romney, 22% for Santorum, and 11% for Paul.

    What might be most interesting in both states is what happens in a head to head between Romney and either Gingrich or Santorum:

    • In Missouri Santorum leads Romney 50-37 and in Ohio Santorum leads 45-38.
    • In Missouri Gingrich leads Romney 43-42 and in Ohio Gingrich leads 42-39.

    My guess is that Rick Santorum may be prevailed upon to drop out after a while – or simply run out of money. Newt Gingrich has a sugar daddy in Las Vegas and says he will go on to the summer Republican Convention.

    A one on one race with Romney is what Newt wants. But, will he get it in time?

    This race is NOT over today with a Romney win – no matter how big the victory is.

    The results of the polls are here.

  • GOP,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Republicans Increasingly Unhappy With GOP Presidential Field

    According to the latest Pew Research Center.

    Republicans evaluating the field of potential GOP presidential nominees are increasingly negative about the current slate of candidates, according to a new poll from the Pew Research Center.

    Fifty-two percent of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters said the GOP field was “fair or poor,” an eight percentage-point increase since the question was asked in early January.

    Likewise, the number of Republicans who had positive feelings about the candidates dropped. Forty-six percent rated the current field of four candidates “excellent or good,” a drop from the 51% who had that response in January. The GOP field has undergone substantial change since then, with former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and Texas Gov. Rick Perry dropping out of the contest.

    Monday’s poll from Pew, which was conducted in partnership with the Washington Post, is the first time since this election cycle the negative response from voters outweighed the positive. Pew began asking the question in May 2011.

    I know I am not very pleased with any of the remaining members of the field.

    To be honest, I don’t see Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich able to beat President Obama at this point. Neither of them are consistent conservatives, who can articulate a contrasting theme to the left-leaning Democratic President.

    Either the GOP should induce a new candidate or two into the mix or be prepared for another four years of President Obama.

  • Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney Viewed as More Presidential Than Gingrich

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Mitt Romney leads Newt Gingrich, 59% to 39%, in U.S. registered voters’ perceptions that each “has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have.” Romney also has solid advantages for being “sincere and authentic” and able to manage the government effectively. Romney and Gingrich are about tied, however, on understanding the problems Americans face in their daily lives.

    These findings are based on registered voters nationally, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted as part of Jan. 27-28 Gallup Daily tracking.

    If GOP voters are looking at electability, it appears Romney has a definite edge in general election voter perceptions. Romney is perceived as sincere and Presdiential – Gingrich is NOT.

    These are likely the reasons why in head to head general election polls, Romney is close or beating President Obama, whereas Gingrich trails.

  • Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Gingrich Maintaining National Poll Lead While Romney Slumps

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Republican registered voters nationally continue to prefer Newt Gingrich over Mitt Romney for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination, with no sign in Gallup Daily tracking from Jan. 22-26 that Gingrich is giving back any of his recent gains.

    The 32% of Republican voters now choosing Gingrich as the candidate they are most likely to support for the nomination is his highest level of support since the 2012 primary voting began in early January. The 24% supporting Romney is his lowest.

    Despite the heavy media focus on the two front-runners, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are each holding their own at just under 15%, putting the two men in a statistical tie for third.

    It looks like the concentrated attacks of the GOP Establishment, including New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former U.S. Senator Bob Dole have had little effect. It could also be that Mitt Romney just does not command that much support for himself.

    Romney has pummeled Gingrich in Florida this past week with negative ads. Perhaps people just no longer respond to Romney’s negativity.

    But, I suppose we will see what Florida voters do on Tuesday.

  • Electoral College,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  President 2012

    President 2012: How Do Gingrich and Romney Look Against Obama in the Electoral College?

    The 2012 Republican presidential primary battle shifts to Florida, where Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are locked in a tight battle. And, already, Republicans are starting to have visions of a Newt candidacy — and they don’t like what they see. That includes an electoral map that could look quite different — and much worse for them — than the one Romney or another Republican might compete on.

    Larry Sabato over at the University of Virginia Center for Politics has this excellent analysis. Long and short of it is: Newt Gingrich is more of a gamble to beat President Obama, should he win the Republican nomination.

    To be clear, President Obama is vulnerable. His approval rating – 46% approve, 48.6% disapprove, according to the RealClearPolitics approval average — is middling. And against Mitt Romney, Obama’s vulnerability shows: in Pollster.com’s average of national polling, Obama leads Romney just 46.5% to 45.3%. But against Gingrich, the average tells a very different story — Obama, at 49.9%, leads Gingrich (39.1%) by more than 10 points.

    Granted, there are outliers: Gallup on Tuesday had both Romney and Gingrich running evenly with Obama, both down 50% to 48%. But the bulk of the polling data indicates that Romney, at least at this point, is the stronger candidate against Obama.

    Why does Romney fare better? Well, the best candidate against Obama remains “generic Republican” — that make-believe person who leads Obama by a single slim point, according to RealClearPolitics. Let’s be honest here: Romney’s the closest thing out there to a generic Republican available. He is not going to steal the presidency away from the incumbent if Obama’s having a good year and the economy is solid. Rather, if the country is ready to make a change, then Romney would be a credible alternative. The national polling numbers bear that out; they also show that Gingrich, at least right now, is not seen as a similarly acceptable alternative.

    In other words, in the key battleground states of Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa and Florida, Gingrich looks like a risk to LOSE these states.

    Here is my Electoral College Map from some months ago:

    This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com

    Sobato and his staff make the argument that Gingrich will perform worse (at least he is polling worse now) than Romney in the states, the GOP needs to win to beat Obama.

    This may very well be true, and the GOP Establishment have their own maps and are looking at the Senate and House race polls across the nation.

    Romney is SAFE and Gingrich MAY underperform Obama.

    But, what does the GOP base want in a candidate? A generic Republican, Romney nominee or a firebrand, big idea guy, like Gingrich.

    Guess we will find out next tuesday in Florida.

  • Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 GOP Florida Poll Watch: Gingrich 38% Vs. Romney 33% Vs. Santorum 13% Vs. Paul 10%

    Newt Gingrich campaigning today in Florida

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    PPP’s first post-South Carolina poll in Florida finds Newt Gingrich with a small lead.  He’s at 38% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 13% for Rick Santorum, and 10% for Ron Paul.

    Gingrich has gained 12 points since a PPP poll conducted in Florida a week ago. Romney has dropped 8 points. Paul and Santorum have pretty much remained in place. Their favorability numbers show similar trendlines. Gingrich’s has increased 8 points from +15 (51/36) to +23 (57/34). Meanwhile Romney’s has declined 13 points from +44 (68/24) to +31 (61/30).

    This is the third poll today that has Newt Gingrich besting Mitt Romney in Florida.

    What a come back!

    The entire poll is here.

  • Day By Day,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  President 2012

    Day By Day January 22, 2012 – Campaign in Toto



    Day By Day by Chris Muir

    Chris, we saw the power of the internet on the resurgence of Newt Gingrich in South Carolina. The thumping of Mitt Romney was not driven by the GOP Establishment with paid television or direct mail advertising – but by the “live” events = the television debates and the interconnection of the RIGHT on the internet.

    This will be the same as the GOP Presidential nomination race moves to Florida today.

    Watch Mitt Romney to attempt to buy a narrative on the MSM political sites and the cable networks, including Fox News. The one at the moment is that Newt Gingrich is a “disgrace.”

    I don’t think this tactic will work since the narrative for Romney is already engrained in the internet driven GOP base. Romney = out of touch with average American voters.

  • Day By Day,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich

    Day By Day January 20, 2012 – Not Cowed



    Day By Day by Chris Muir

    Chris, Mitt Romney is NOT a conservative but a Republican “lite.”

    This is why Newt Gingrich is surging in South Carolina polls. Despite his negative baggage, conservatives want someone who will “fight” for them – not flip flop to another position when the going gets tough.

    I suspect after Saturday, the Republican Presidential nomination race will re-start as a one on one of Romney vs. Gingrich.