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Presidential Electors Initiative Watch: Failure to Launch
Graphic Courtesy of California Majority Report
Flap’s California State Senator, Tom McClintock has a piece on the apparent failure ?(apparently there are on-going efforts) of the attempt to change how California Electoral College Presidential Delegates are chosen.
A Republican effort to apportion California’s electoral votes by congressional district looks like it is faltering, and that’s a very good thing. The proposal is a classic example of the cynicism, defeatism and short-sightedness of many who are misguiding the GOP today.
Giving up on ever regaining a Republican majority in California, some party leaders apparently decided it would be clever to change the apportionment of the state’s electoral votes from its traditional winner-take-all rule to a process that assigns 53 of California’s 55 electoral votes by congressional district. Instead of the Democrat nominee automatically taking all 55 votes, the Republican could take 20 or so votes. What’s not to like?
Here’s what’s not to like. Congressional and legislative districts are apportioned not by voters or citizens, but by population – weighting the vote heavily toward urban districts with high concentrations of ineligible voters. For example, in the 2004 Presidential election, 109,000 votes were cast in Loretta Sanchez’ heavily Democratic 47th Congressional District race, while more than twice that number, 277,000, were cast in Dana Rohrbacher’s Republican 46th Congressional District. Just 66,000 voters put Sanchez in Congress; 171,000 voted for Rohrbacher.
A voter in Sanchez’ district has more than twice the weight as a voter in Rohrbacher’s – in a congressional race. In a statewide race, however, every vote has exactly the same weight. That’s why Republicans have had far more success over the last 30 years in electing Republican governors than Republican legislatures.
So why in the world would Republicans want to replicate this heavy Democratic skew in presidential races?
True, if ONLY California did this it would mean a few more electoral votes for the Republican candidate WHEN the state went Democratic. But if every state followed suit, the election of a Republican president would become much more difficult.
And there’s one other thing to consider: the Democrats only have carried California since GOP presidential candidates stopped contesting the state in 1992. True, in 2004, George W. Bush would have received 20 of California’s 55 electoral votes (assuming the presidential vote mirrored the congressional vote). But in Republican years it works more dramatically against Republicans: even though George H. W. Bush carried California in 1988, Dukakis would have snatched 27 of California’s (then) 47 electoral votes – a substantial majority – had this rule been in effect then.
Fortunately for the Republican rocket scientists who dreamed this one up, the Democrats’ knee-jerk opposition may have saved them from themselves. Now, hopefully, they will turn their attention to actually contesting California again in an open battle of ideas, rather than relying on too-clever-by-half political schemes.
Tom is correct that this scheme is too clever by half. If this system were to be adopted nationwide the GOP would be at a disadvantage.
Flap supposes the intense opposition in California by the Democrats is more from Hillary’s folks than Democrat activists who are attempting the exact same change in North Carolina.
However, there are reports that this initiative is NOT dead.
Stay tuned……..
Previous:Presidential Electors Initiative Watch: Is it OVER?
Presidential Electors Initiative Watch: Bush and Rove Did It
Presidential Electors Initiative Watch: Initiative in Circulation for June 2008
Electoral Reform California Initiative Watch: Schwarzenegger Cool To InitiativeElectoral Reform California Initiative Watch: Field Poll – 47% Favor vs. 35% Oppose
Electoral Reform California Initiative Could Split California Presidential Votes Part II
Electoral Reform California Initiative Could Split California Presidential Votes
North Carolina Ready to Change Electoral College Presidential Selection Rules for 2008
Technorati Tags: Electoral Reform California, Electoral College, GOP, Democrats
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Arnold Schwarzenegger Watch: California Budget Deficits On The Horizon
Former California Governor Gray Davis, right, speaks to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger as former Governor Pete Wilson, left, looks on, during a news conference Thursday Aug. 23, 2007 in Los Angeles. The three along with members of the Voices of Reform Coalition including Common Cause and League of Women Voters met to discuss ways promote a fundamental change in the way political boundaries are drawn to insure fairness and transparency in elections.
The California budget stalemate ended this week but all is not well with the state budget.
It is ironic that Governor Schwarzenegger is being touched above by former California Governor Gray Davis who was recalled (and replaced by Arnold) partly because of his huge budget deficits.
Tom McClintock, Flap’s California State Senator sees stormy economic clouds on the horizon.
Flap sees tax increases or bonds to raise state revenue because the Governor cannot control spending. If the economy goes south, the Governator may be in the same predicament as his predecessor, Gray Davis.
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Arnold Schwarzenegger Watch: Health Care FLOP
Technorati Tags: Arnold SchwarzeneggerTom McClintock
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Tony Strickland Watch: Strickland Endorsed by ENTIRE Senate GOP Caucus and by Ventura County GOP
Tony Strickland endorsed by ENTIRE Senate GOP Caucus and by Ventura County GOP
From the way that Tony Strickland’s campaign for California State Senate is gearing up, you would almost think that that he is listed as “incumbent” on the ballot. But, of course, he is not. The incumbent, Senator Tom McClintock, is retiring next year as term limits prevents him from seeking a third Senate term.
Today the ENTIRE 15-member State Senate Republican Caucus endorsed former Assemblyman Strickland in his bid to succeed McClintock.
Strickland’s State Senate endorsement page is here.
Click on Image for larger graphic
His California State Senate website is here.
Flap’s analysis is the same as in January of this year:
This move by Tony Strickland was well-anticipated in Ventura County, California GOP politics.
Strickland is the front-runner and ANY thoughts that Mike Stoker, a field representative for current California State Senator, Tom McClintock are DELUSIONS of GRANDEUR.
Look for an uncontested
February(written before current legislation) June 2008 GOP primary election for this seat and for Tony Strickland to be the next State Senator.If anyone thinks that Strickland will not be the next State Senator
fromrepresenting Thousand Oaks, they must beJim DantonaNUTS.California Assemblywoman Audra Strickland (R-Thousand Oaks) and Tony Strickland
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Tony Strickland Watch: Strickland Eyes Tom McClintock’s California State Senate Seat in 2008
Technorati Tags: Tony Strickland, Audra Strickland, Tom McClintockJim Dantona
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California Representative Elton Gallegly Watch: Retiring in 2008?
California State Senator Tom McClintock, R-Thousand Oaks and California Representative Elton Gallegly – (R) CA 24th
Gallegly retiring?
Doubtful.
Though he reversed himself and committed to the 2006 campaign, Gallegly stated publicly that he would serve only one more term if elected. But shortly after his re-election that November, his staff said “retirement is not an option†in a comment to the Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call that was picked up by many other publications.
Gallegly already has filed a statement of candidacy for the 2008 race with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and had a hefty $800,000 on hand in his House campaign account at the start of April, according to his most recent campaign finance report.
But, should he……the heir apparent is Tom McClintock.
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Tom McClintock Watch: McClintock for Congress?
Technorati Tags: TomMcClintock, EltonGallegly
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Tony Strickland Watch: Strickland Eyes Tom McClintock’s California State Senate Seat in 2008
Readers: Please Vote in Flap’s January 2008 GOP Presidential Poll
GOP Controller candidate and former Simi-Thousand Oaks Assemblyman Tonyt Strickland speaking at the September 2005 California Republican Party Convention.
FlashReport: Tony Strickland looks to follow Tom McClintock into the State Senate
Last night, I had the opportunity to sit next to Tony and Audra Strickland at the wedding reception of a mutual friend. Tony, of course, is a former State Assemblyman and was the GOP nominee for State Controller last year. His wife, Audra, currently represents the 37th Assembly District as a member of the California legislature.
In chatting with Tony, he shared with me that on Friday, he had opened up a campaign committee and will be seeking the Republican nomination to succeed State Senator Tom McClintock in that Ventura County-based district, that stretches up into Santa Barbara County. Needless to say, the Strickland name has become quote familiar to residents in that area, and Tony becomes the immediate front-runner. His recent run for State Controller has helped to keep his name ID ‘current’ in the minds of voters — in addition to having his wife, Audra, serving as the State Assemblywoman for much of the district.
This move by tony Strickland was well-anticipated in Ventura County, California GOP politics.
Strickland is the front-runner and ANY thoughts that Mike Stoker, a field representative for current California State Senator, Tom McClintock are DELUSIONS of GRANDEUR.
Look for an uncontested February 2008 GOP primary election for this seat and for Tony Strickland to be the next State Senator.
Stay tuned…….
California Assemblywoman Audra Strickland (R-Thousand Oaks) and Tony Strickland
Technorati Tags: TonyStrickland, AudraStrickland, TomMcClintock
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Tom McClintock Watch: State Board of Equalization?
California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and California State Senator and Lt. Governor candidate Tom McClintock in San Jose at the California Republican Party Convention, February 24, 2006.
Los Angeles Times: Lowered expectations
Having lost races for governor, lieutenant governor and state controller, Republican State Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks is working his way down the ole ballot. The Capitol Morning Report, which is sort of the daily racing sheet of Sacramento politics, reports that McClintock has opened a campaign account to run for a Board of Equalization seat in 2010.
Of course, many termed-out legislators open accounts for offices they don’t have interest in, just so they have a way to continue fundraising. But then again the Board of Equalization is a popular way station for politicians looking to run for another job. McClintock’s interest in the BOE remains unknown as he did not respond to a request for comment.
Flap suspects this is a fund-raising mechanism. Especially, since McClintock is termed out of his California State Senate seat.
Now, this could change with a redistricting proposal being floated around the capital – should the governor need to entice affirmative Democrat legislative votes with a change in term limits.
But, what Tom WILL do is open a federal fundraising account (unless he already has?) and keep his powder dry for a possible Congressional run in either the 24th (Thousand Oaks) or another safe GOP district.
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Tom McClintock Watch: McClintock for Congress?
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Tom McClintock Watch: McClintock for Congress?
Tom McClintock: Thank You
I cannot begin to thank you enough for everything that you did for me during this campaign. My gratitude to you for your faith and generosity and support makes it all the harder to accept the result. I was very much looking forward to delivering you a victory after all that you have done and sacrificed for my candidacy.
By all accounts, we ran a solid campaign of which I am intensely proud. And according to all of the final polls, we were poised to win.But those polls were based upon normal voter turn-out – and that’s the tide that went against us. Unfortunately, a very high percentage of Democrats and a very low percentage of Republicans actually cast ballots. (For example, only 47.7 percent of voters turned out in the Republican stronghold of San Bernardino, while 61.2 percent turned out in the Democratic bastion of Alameda County).
California and the country did not suddenly take a dramatic turn to the left. Rather, Republican voters were disenchanted with the direction of their party and simply stayed home. The political fundamentals are still sound – it is the abandonment of our party’s core principles that must now be challenged if our voters are to return to the polls.
I intend to do my part, and I know that you will, too. In this campaign, we pulled together the largest coalition of supporters of any candidacy on the ballot because each of us is firmly committed to a simple principle called freedom. And I don’t think that a single one of us is willing to meekly abandon that principle or our beautiful California .
On the contrary, we can all draw increased confidence that the policies of higher taxes, greater regulation and less freedom that will inevitably follow from this election can not be sustained and will not be tolerated by precisely those voters who sat at home this time.
We must rally them and return them to the polls – and on that day we will certainly save our state.
Again, thank you for standing firm. I could not possibly be more gratified or more humbled than to have had your support in this campaign.
Time to come home to Thousand Oaks, Tom, and run for the 24th Congressional seat of retiring Congressman Elton Gallegly, R- Simi Valley. Or maybe NOT retiring Elton Gallegly.
Watch for such a move and fundraising efforts by termed out California State Senator McClintock after the first of the year.McClintock will have NO challengers in the GOP primary.
Stay tuned………
Technorati Tags: TomMcClintock, EltonGallegly