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Tony Strickland Win Changes Outlook for CA-26
California State Senator Tony Strickland at January’s Congressional announcement
Tony Strickland’s victory in the California June Presidential Primary election this week has changed the outlook for the 26th Congressional District, according to Stuart Rothenberg.
Democrats avoided complete disaster by spending close to a million dollars to ensure Assemblywoman Julia Brownley made it into the top two. Brownley (26 percent) got a late start, represented just 16 percent of the congressional district and had to fend off Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks, who was running as an Independent and received 19 percent of the vote. But the race doesn’t get any easier for Democrats. State Sen. Tony Strickland (R) finished first on Tuesday with 45 percent and had over $700,000 in the bank on May 16. Given Strickland’s showing and Brownley’s need to get virtually all of Parks’ vote, we are moving this contest from Toss-Up/Tilt R to Lean Republican.
The Democrats are apt to throw lots of money behind California Democratic Assemblywoman Julia Brownley but the fact remains Brownley is a carpetbagger. She may have represented parts of Ventura County (gerrymandered parts of heavily Hispanic Oxnard), but until a few weeks before running, she lived in Santa Monica. She has moved to Oak Park, but Strickland and the GOP Super PACS will exploit this large hole in Brownley’s candidacy.
And, Strickland will have plenty of campaign cash to mail, run television and radio ads and run a social media campaign.
I really do not think this will be a close race.
Strickland will win easily.
But, I fully expect the Democrats to throw everything at Strickland.
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CA-26: Tony Strickland and Julia Brownley to Face Off in November
From the California Secretary of State
In one of California’s hotly contested Congressional races, the two major parties, fended off an independent No Party Preference candidate, Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks.
When the dust settled, Republican California State Senator Tony Strickland was the top vote getter with around 44 per cent of the vote. Democrat Assemblywoman Julia Brownley finished second with almost 27 per cent. Parks finished third.
In the first test of the California top two election process, it was the two major, partisan parties who prevailed.
Underfunded and perhaps naive that money is not the “mothers milk of politics,” Linda Parks failed to break 20 per cent of the vote. Her mantra on being independent may play well in non-partisan races, but it failed to deliver last night.
Without reading too much into the results, since voter turnout will be greater in November, Republican Tony Strickland has to be considered the favorite.
But, the fall campaign which could determine the majority in the House of Representatives nationally will be hard-fought, expensive and brutal.
Stay tuned…..
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CA-26: Strickland Continues to Lead in Fundraising
Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks (NP) and California State Senator Tony Strickland (R)
Timm Herdt over at the Ventura County Star has the poop on the fundraising numbers – Republican California State Senator Tony Strickland leads far and away.
Strickland had a pretty good week at fundraising last week, FEC reports show.
He took in more than $70,000, most in the form of contributions from members of Congress and conservative PACs, including House Speaker John Boehner ($4,000) and Rep. Paul Ryan’s Prosperity PAC ($2,500).
Meanwhile, Democrat Julia Brownley took in slightly over $20,000, led by contributions from AFSCME ($2,500), House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer ($2,000) and $2,000 each from county Democratic clubs in the Conejo Valley, Oxnard and Ojai.
The reports show that independent Linda Parks boosted her campaign with a $10,000 contribution to the campaign from her personal funds on May 2.
Ventura County Supervisor and No Party Preference candidate, Linda Parks, has been widely outspent by Strickland and Brownley. She accepts no contributions from PACS, although an independent SuperPAC has run some ads for her.
Will Parks approach work in the new top two format?
Will Republicans “GAME” the voting system and vote for Linda Parks to eliminate the Democrat, Brownley?
Well. stay tuned…..the election is tomorrow.
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CA-26: Republicans Vote for Linda Parks Tomorrow
Why not?
In California’s new top two election system, Ventura County voters can have either have a Far Left Democrat (Assemblywoman Julia Brownley) or a No Party Preference moderate in Ventura County Sueprvisor Linda Parks, face off with Republican Tony Strickland in November.
Brownley without hesitation will vote for Nancy Pelosi as Speaker and for every left-wing cause down the line.
Parks is a moderate and although more left than I would like will at least be approachable on issues. Not to say that Parks will vote more conservative, but who can be MORE left than Santa Monica resident (oh yeah Brownley just moved) Julia Brownley?
Conservative voters tomorrow have an opportunity for a two-fer. Strickland and Parks.
Tomorrow vote for Linda Parks.
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CA-26: Will Republican Voters Game Tony Strickland?
Screenshot of Patricia McKeon for Assembly mailer featuring California State Senator and CA-26 Congressional candidate Tony Strickland
So, who to vote for next week in my (26th) Congressional district – especially since the California top two voting system sets up various ways to game the November general election?
Most Republican voters WILL vote for the Republican candidate Tony Strickland who is the ONLY Republican listed on the ballot. Let’s face it, most voters vote for their party and don’t look at the other candidates.
But, wait.
The California top two system this year will send the top two vote getters next Tuesday to the general election in November regardless of party affiliation.
The conventional wisdom says that there are sufficient Republican voters in the CA-26 to easily place Tony Strickland in the top two. But, what if some Republican or conservative independent Tea Party voters, confident of Strickland moving along, decide to vote for either No Party Preference candidate, Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks or Democratic Assemblywoman Julia Brownley.
This will, of course, dilute Strickland’s vote total, but will set him up with either the best candidate to beat or not.
Game on…..
I am not happy with Tony Strickland endorsing the unethical, Republican tools, Buck and Patricia McKeon. They are an embarrassment to the GOP.
I mean, Tony is an acceptable Republican and conservative candidate, but he is NO Tom McClintock. He can represent my views better than Julia Brownley or Linda Parks, but when Speaker Boehner or Leader McCarthy come calling, he will switch his vote in a minute for the campaign cash. I cannot say the same for my current Congressman Elton Gallegly who is retiring.
What to do?
Vote for Linda Parks, who I think has a REAL chance to beat Tony Strickland with grass roots populism, or vote for Julia Brownley who will bring plenty of Democratic campaign cash to run major negative ads against Strickland.
If Parks wins one of the top two spots, will she have sufficient resources to run a general election campaign against Strickland? Probably enough and the Democrats or an independent-minded billionaire or two might sweeten the pot – perhaps.
If Brownley wins, she could beat Strickland in November. But, the Congressional District will remain a registration neutral battleground and Strickland or another Republican would certainly run against her in two years. The GOP might get a better Republican.
All I know is that Tony Strickland’s endorsement of Patricia McKeon in AD-48 has cost him this conservative, Republicans vote next week.
Who will I vote for to best game the system?
I will let you know…..
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CA-26: Tony Strickland Goes Positive in Political Mailer
Screenshot from Tony Strickland Mailer
The real campaign for this contested Congressional seat will be in November. But, Republican Tony Strickland is playing nice with this positive mailer about constituent service.
Here is the entire mailer:
A very good idea to portray yourself in a positive manner while the Democrat Julia Brownley goes after No Party Preference independent candidate Linda Parks in the June primary election.
It is called placing a little goodwill in the general election bank.
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CA-26: Handicapping Linda Parks Independent Challenge
Democratic Attack Mailer against No Party Preference candidate Linda Parks
The chances of Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks winning a top two spot in the June 5th California Primary election is not looking so good. Timm Herdt over at the Ventura County Star has the analysis.
First, lets look a the early balloting (California allows early by mail voting):
Here’s what we know, based on information compiled by Political Data Inc. and Redistricting Partners: In the 26th Congressional District, 7 percent of the ballots sent to the district’s 151,515 permanent mail-in voters have already been returned. Of them, 40 percent have come from Democrats, 45 percent from Republicans and 11 percent from nonpartisans.
Although CA-26 has a plurality of registered Democrats, the preponderance of early returned ballots, speaks to more enthusiastic voting by Republicans. And, these Republicans, are probably NOT voting for Linda Parks (who changed her registration from Republican to No Party Preference at the beginning of this campaign).
Note, also the non-partisan or Declined to State returned mail ballots are ONLY at 11%.
Herdt says that Linda Parks must capture 35 per cent of the Republican and non-partisan vote, plus 22 per cent of Democratic votes in order to beat Democrat Assemblywoman Julia Brownley for second place. I don’t see how she gets there.
With the blistering Democratic direct mail attacks on Parks and the preference for GOP primary voters to vote for one of their own, Parks will likely come in a close third to Brownley.
Republican California State Senator Tony Strickland has run a very smart race. His low-key campaign, while raining tons of campaign cash for November has been the winning strategy.
Watch your mailbox for more Democratic attacks on Parks as Brownley closes out the campaign.
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CA-26: Linda Parks and Her Cable Television ONLY Campaign Strategy
Screenshot from Linda Park’s latest television ad
Timm Herdt over at the Ventura County Star interviews Linda Park’s strategist George Gorton regarding her campaign media strategy.Political strategists have historically just about all come to the same conclusion about how to campaign in Ventura County: mail, mail and more mail. So it is intriguing to see the approach that Supervisor Linda Parks of Thousand Oaks is taking in running as an independent in the 26th Congressional District. She and her consultant, George Gorton, have decided to put nearly all their resources into cable TV.
Public documents from Time Warner show that Gorton’s partner Garrett Biggs on April 5 signed a $202,200 contract to air Parks ads on Ventura County cable systems through Election Day. The current schedule shows spots slated to run nearly every day through May 13, presumably with more to be scheduled later. They are placed on a wide range of cable channels, including ESPN, the Food Network, Fox Sports, MSNBC, HGTV, the Discovery Channel and the History Network.
“It’s a pretty significant buy,” Gorton told me yesterday.
I know George Gorton from his days with Pete Wilson and his successful campaigns for U.S. Senate and California Governor. All of Gorton’s Wilson campaigns were very successful and almost all of the media was on television, broadcast and cable. So, a television only strategy is not unusual for Gorton.
And, certainly this strategy is not unusual for Linda Parks who will be campaign cash challenged as compared to Republican California State Senator Tony Strickland and Democrat California Assemblywoman Julia Brownley. A direct mail campaign to all of Ventura County potential voters would be cost prohibitive for Parks – especially since she is a NPP (No Party Preference) and cannot mail to only Republican or Democratic households with the same message.
Here is Park’s latest ad, embedded below and it features many of her supporters from City Council and Supervisor campaigns (very low production costs and value):
What is surprising to me, is not the Park’s strategy. This is the same media campaign that her mentor and my former neighbor successful Thousand Oaks City Councilwoman Jaime Zukowski used to beat an incumbent Thousand Oaks Mayor Robert Lewis over twenty years ago. What is surprising is that neither Strickland nor Brownley have responded with ANY cable television ads of their own.
Parks has been on for over two weeks and nobody has gone “on air.”
As far as internet ads are concerned, I have seen little activity thus far for Parks. She will likely do some and I will let you know when I see them appear.
And, I bet when Brownley’s and Strickland’s consultants get around to reading Herdt’s and my pieces, they may actually produce some responding or even negative television ads. At least they should, especially Brownley, if she doesn’t want to finish third to Parks or Strickland in June.
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CA-26 Video: David Cruz Thayne Releases First Online Ad
Daivd Cruz Thayne is up with his first online web ad.I have embedded the video below:
It is pretty much a biography and tells of his early years as a South American immigrant to the United States.
Thayne is one of four Democrats running for two spots against Republican State Senator Tony Strickland and NPP (No Party Preference) Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks.
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CA-26: Tony Strickland Sponsored Reusable Grocery Bag Bill Slapped Down by California Senate Environmental Quality Committee
A reusable grocery bag
Photo Credit: LA TimesYou remember the FLAP?Not a good day for California State Senator Tony Strickland who is aspiring to be Ventura County’s newest congressman. Timm Herdt over at the Ventura County Star has the details.
While saying they agree with the need for greater public awareness about the importance of regularly washing reusable cloth grocery bags, members of the Senate Environmental Quality Committee rejected a bill Monday that would have required warnings about potential food contamination on the bags.
The bill was defeated 4-1, with only its author, Sen. Tony Strickland, R-Moorpark, voting in support.
While Strickland said his bill was “about food safety and public health,” environmental groups assailed it as an attempt to needlessly alarm consumers about an option promoted as an alternative to single-use plastic bags, which have become a source of litter and ocean pollution.
The bill was just mean-spirited, stupidity on the part of the Republican Strickland. The plastic and paper bag manufacturers are pissed off because many California cities are banning their products and forcing the use of reusable bags.
What is Tony Strickland thinking?
More Nanny State and government mandates because your business supporters haven’t been getting their way and business is being impacted?
Now, I have problems with banning plastic and paper bags as unnecessary NANNY STATE regulations – but to hit back and require EVEN MORE stupid state regulations?
Tony Strickland knows better than this and lucky for him that this bill was slapped down early and can easily be forgotten before the June election.
Now, Tony about that other stupid move in endorsing Patricia McKeon and throwing your friend Scott Wilk under the bus…..
