• Taxes

    Delaying Tax Vote Could Crash Stock Market on December 15th

    "Failure by Congress to extend the Bush tax cuts, especially locking in the 15 percent capital gains tax rate, will spark a stock market sell off starting December 15 as investors move to lock in gains at a lower rate than the 20 percent it would jump to next year, warn analysts. While it is unclear how bad the sell off could be, it could wipe out the year’s gains, they warn.

    "Capital gains tax rate will increase from 15 to 20 percent if the tax cuts are not extended. The last time the capital gains tax rate increased–on Jan. 1, 1987 from 20 to 28 percent–investors realized their gains at the lower tax rate," said Daniel Clifton at a Washington partner at Strategas Research Partners.

    "We would expect a similar effect this time around as investors see the tax rate going up and choose to realize their gains and incur the 15 percent tax." In a memo to clients, Clifton says that the date most clients are focused on is December 15th for a deal in Congress before beginning to sell. One reason: Many stock options expire that day and investors have to act."

    There may very well be a deal to extend the entirelty of the Bush tax rates for a year or two and kick the can down the road.

    Look for a number of votes over the next week as the political sideshow plays out.

    tags: Taxes

    Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

  • Taxes

    House Democrats Vote to Increase Taxes

     

    "Congressional Democrats rammed a bill through the House of Representatives Thursday indefinitely extending the Bush-era tax cuts only for families making $250,000 a year or less. It would maintain the current Alternative Minimum Tax limit for two years. The measure, which passed on a sharply polarized 234-188 vote, would allow the Bush tax cuts to expire after December 31 for the wealthiest Americans. Most Democrats backed the bill, while most Republicans opposed it. GOP leaders are insisting on an extension of the tax cuts for all Americans. All 42 Senate Republicans publicly vowed Monday to prevent a final vote on any other legislative business in the lame duck session until Congress has "prevented the tax increase that is currently awaiting all American taxpayers.""

    The U.S. Senate will likely filibuster this cynical attempt to raise taxes on small business and demagogue the issue of tax rates for the wealth.

    But, the LEFT will have a field day painting the GOP as the party of the rich.

  • Mitch McConnell,  Taxes

    GOP Senators to Block All Bills Until Tax Cuts Are Addressed

    Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Ky., left, accompanied by Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., center, and Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, speaks at a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington.

    As they should.

    Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will announce this morning that Republicans will block any legislation from coming to the Senate floor until two key economic issues are addressed: funding the government (the “continuing resolution” which must pass to prevent a government shutdown) and the extension of the Bush-era tax cuts.

    McConnell will say that members of his caucus are united in the pledge to use procedural votes to prevent any other non-economic issues — including the new START treaty, the DREAM Act, or the defense authorization bill that contains a potential repeal of the military’s Don’t Ask Don’t Tell policy – from coming to the floor for debate.

    Power politics to force Obama and the Democrat’s hand on the Bush era tax rates. If they expire, then the GOP will re-enact them in January (the next Congress) and force Obama to either sign the bill or use his veto.

    Believe me, Americans care about jobs and taxes – not whether gays can serve in the military and amnesty for illegal aliens.

  • economics,  GOP,  Taxes

    Why the GOP Should NOT Compromise with Obama and the Democrats Over Tax Rates

    Why?

    Because it is bad for the economy and job creation.

    The Obama administration and members of Congress should study the record on how the economy reacts to changes in the tax code. The president’s economic team has launched a three-pronged attack on capital: They are attacking the income group that is the most responsible for capital formation and jobs in the private sector, and then attacking the investment returns on capital formation in the form of dividends and capital gains. The out-year projections on revenues from these tax increases will prove to be phantom.

    Republicans should not be complicit in a bad “compromise” plan in order to save Obama and the Democrat’s collective ass. Rather to let the Bush tax rates expire, re-enact them in January and let Obama take responsibility in vetoing lower marginal tax rates – if he dare do so.

  • California Republican Party,  GOP

    California Poll Watch: One in Five California Voters Would NEVER Cast a Ballot for a Republican

    gopelephantupsidedown Memo to the California Republican Party: Time to Change?

    No surprise here.

    Almost one in five California voters said they would never cast a ballot for a Republican. Among Latinos, that rose to almost one in three, according to a new Los Angeles Times-USC poll.

    Only 5% of California voters were as emphatically anti-Democrat, according to the survey.

    “I don’t know how any Republican thinks they can win in California after looking at this,” said GOP pollster Linda DiVall, who with Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg directed the survey for The Times and the USC College of Letters, Arts & Sciences.

    California voters surveyed in the poll repudiated the GOP stance on illegal immigration by endorsing a host of positions intended to make it easier for the undocumented to gain legal status. Their support for same-sex marriage outnumbered that opposing any legal recognition by more than 3 to 1. Californians also endorsed an assertive role for government in protecting minority citizens, regulating corporations and helping the poor and needy, and rejected arguments that an activist role for government had harmed the fiber of American society.

    The complete poll is here.

    California with its ethnic and geographic segmentation has been a super Democratic state. But, on the other hand, it appears to be the only state so predisposed, along with New York. The Democratic Party has become a regional, ethnic, and two state party.

    So, what will be the policy implications of these findings?

    • I don’t think the national Republican Party will put too much money into California for statewide races any longer – at least for the foreseeable future.
    • There will be a hardening of national GOP positions on illegal immigration, border security, and illegal alien amnesty.
    • California will not be the recipient of much Congressionally generated pork or bailout monies.
    • The California Republican Party will hunker down into a permanent minority roll and concentrate on winning Congressional and Legislative seats in “RED” districts while waiting for opportunities.
    • California already known as business-unfriendly will be a jobs donor to other states who recruit California businesses.

    California is in a deep blue hole and it may take decades to change – if ever.

  • California Republican Party

    Memo to the California Republican Party: Time to Change?

    Well, the California Republican Party (CRP) unlike the rest of the country did not perform well in this year’s elections. In fact, it appears the CA GOP lost every statewide race from Governor to Insurance Commissioner.

    The California Democratic Party will continue to control the California Legislature as they have for decades (except for a few years) since World War II.

    So, what should California Republicans do?

    There have been suggestions from Democrat, left-leaning mainstream media types to change it up and betray, I mean modify, party principles.

    Why?

    The GOP’s principles of smaller government, lower taxes, individual liberty and freedom, strong defense and less government are winners nationally and successful. The national GOP won back a majority in the House and made significant inroads into the super majority of a Democrat controlled U.S. Senate. Since World War II, the Republican Party has held the White House more than the Democrats.

    Election 2010 was an overwhelming success for the Republican Party  – except in California.

    Again, why?

    The short answer is demographics.

    I don’t have to beat the drum about ethnic voting blocks in California. It is painfully evident in the election results and will continue to be in statewide California elections.

    California Republicans will have to be patient and wait until the Democrat super majorities run California into a ditch (which they will) and then pick up the pieces incrementally (independent commission redistricting next year will help), nurture their officeholders in California red areas, and recruit new candidates from the professions, business and industry who wish to serve. In the short term, they may also have to concede California as a deep blue Democratic state and fundraise/support Republican candidates from outside the state. After all, the Democratic Party nationally has become a two state regional party anyway.

    But, sacrificing or selling out one’s principles by becoming Republican Lite or moderate Democrats is a non-starter.

    Then, there really will be NO alternative to California Democrats who trend LEFT.

    The California Republican Party will make a come back and win more elections because the principles are RIGHT. The CRP should stay the course.

  • Calfornia Election 2010

    Election 2010: The Uncalled House Races

    Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele is seen between a pair of campaign signs for Republican congressional candidate David Harmer, during a rally in Stockton, Calif., Wednesday, Oct. 6, 2010. Steele visited California’s Central Valley as part of the RNC’s national ‘Fire Pelosi’ bus tour.

    Here is the list:

    — CA-20: 100% in; Vidak (R) up 51-49 or 1,823 votes of 63K
    — NY-25: 100% in; 50-50, Buerkle (R) up 659 votes of 189K
    — IL-8: 100% in Walsh (R) up 49-48 or 559 votes of 194K
    — TX-27: 100% in; Farenthold (R) up 48-47, or 799 votes of 101K
    — CA-11: 100% in; 47-47 McNerney (D) up by just 134 votes of 164K
    — KY-6: 100% in; 50-50 Chandler (D) up 600 votes of 140K
    — VA-11: 100% in; 49-49 Connolly (D) up 920 votes out of 222K
    — WA-2: 80% in; 50-50 Larsen (D) up 1,451 out of 220K
    — AZ-8: 100% in; Giffords (D) up 49-47, or 3,055 votes of 239K

    In California, it appears that Republican Andy Vidak may be a pickup for the GOP.  He is leading 51.5% Vs. Jim Costa’s (D-Rep) 48.5%. Here is the results page from the California Secretary of State.

    It is closer in the CA-11 CD: Democrat Rep. Jerry McNerney leads Republican David Harmer by ONLY 134 votes. Stay tuned for a probable recount on this race.

    So, the GOP has captured 60 House seats from the Democrats in election 2010 with a possibility of a few more.

  • Calfornia Election 2010

    California Election 2010: The Post Mortem and How Bad Is It in California

    The midterm elections turned into a sweeping repudiation of the Democrats’ failed status quo — except, that is, in California. There, not only did the Democrats not lose, they gained clout.

    Even as voters in other states said they’d had enough of ever bigger, more intrusive and higher-cost government by the Democrats, California voters said, “More please.”

    With the exception of the governor’s office, California has been a virtual one-party state since the 1960s. Now, thanks to decades of anti-business policies promulgated by a series of left-leaning legislatures, its economy and finances are a mess, and it’s hemorrhaging jobs, businesses and productive entrepreneurs to other states.

    California and the California Republican Party has been broken for some time. Now, it is just more obvious. Read on as the Investors Business Daily lays out the case for “giving up” in Blue California and moving business operations to another state.

    How bad has it gotten in California?

    • Some 2.3 million Californians are without jobs, for a 12.4% unemployment rate — one of the highest in the country.
    • From 2001 to 2010, factory jobs plummeted from 1.87 million to 1.23 million — a loss of 34% of the state’s industrial base. Ask any company, and it’ll tell you the same thing: It’s now almost impossible to build a big factory in California.
    • With just 12% of the U.S. population, California has almost a third of the nation’s welfare recipients. Some joke the state motto should be changed from “The Golden State” to “The Welfare State.” Meanwhile, 15.3% of all Californians live in poverty.
    • The state budget gap for 2009-10 was $45.5 billion, or 53% of total state spending — the largest in any state’s history.
    • The state’s sales tax is the nation’s highest, and its income tax the third-highest, the BusinessInsider.com Web site recently noted. Meanwhile, the Tax Foundation’s “State Business Tax Climate Index” ranks California 48th.
    • In a ranking by corporate relocation expert Ronald Pollina of the 50 states based on 31 factors for job creation, California finished dead last.
    • In another ranking, this one by the Beacon Hill Institute on state competitiveness, California came in 32nd — down seven spots in just one year.
    • California is home to 25% of America’s 12 million to 20 million illegal immigrants. A 2004 study estimated that illegals cost the state’s citizens $10.5 billion a year — roughly $1,200 per family.
    • Unfunded pension liabilities for California’s state and public employees may be as much as $500 billion — roughly 17% of the nation’s total $3 trillion at the state and local level.

    So, that is how bad it is in California. But, what really happened in last Tuesday’s election. Why were California Republicans shellacked or wiped out in every statewide race, except maybe one?

    Population demographics for one. Look at Los Angeles County.

    A large part of the state’s Democratic tilt comes from its massive Latino population. The Los Angeles Times noted that it made up 22% of the voting pool, “a record tally that mortally wounded many Republicans.”

    Indeed, Latinos went for Democrats by 2-to-1 — perhaps ending the naive idea of some in the GOP of a New Majority built on the burgeoning Latino population.

    Illegal immigration has been ignored for decades by California and the federal government and these “illegal” Californians have had generations of now “legal” and VOTING Californians. And, they, like African-Americans and Jews vote primarily Democratic. Unfortunately for the GOP this may not change for generations and decades as this Hispanic population assimilates. Or, it may become even more polarized and Latinos may drift towards the African-American lock with the Democrats. Voting blocks that approach 40% of the population are very hard to beat in elections – period.

    And, there is more.

    Latino voters overwhelmingly supported Democrats Brown and Boxer over their respective Republican rivals Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina, according to polls conducted by Latino Decisions and sponsored by the National Council of La Raza, Service Employees International Union and America’s Voice.

    Brown won election with nearly 54% of the overall vote, while Boxer took a 52% edge in her race. But their support among Latino voters was in the 80 percents.

    What will happen next?

    For many, it’s as simple as ABC — Anywhere But California. This is an issue near and dear to our hearts. Investor’s Business Daily was founded in 1983 in Los Angeles — and for a quarter of a century has proudly called California its home.

    But we too have been affected by the state’s poisonous, anti-business political environment. With de facto one-party rule in the state since the 1960s and few signs of change anytime soon, our optimism about the state’s future has begun to wane.

    As a result, sad to say, much of IBD’s future growth will happen at a new facility in Texas — where local and state authorities have bent over backwards to make us feel welcome.

    Many more business enterprises will be of the same opinion and simply give up and leave California. There will be an increasingly burdensome population that either does not work or who are not skilled enough to participate in 21st century business. California will go to the federal government which will be dominated by Republicans for a bailout.

    None will be forthcoming and California will either change or slide loudly in to a Greece-like abyss of default and bankruptcy.

    California can no longer be considered a “Golden State.”

  • Arnold Schwarzenegger,  Marijuana

    California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger Signs Bill Decriminalizing Marijuana Possession

    In his younger days Arnold Schwarzenegger smoking some weed

    Why, of course, Arnold would.

    The California Governor, Schwarzenegger, who opposes Proposition 19, this morning signed a landmark bill in the state of California which decriminalizes the possession of marijuana. For those wondering, this does not make marijuana possession legal, but it no longer will be a misdemeanor offense. Instead of the mandatory fine of $100 as well as the mandatory appearance in front of a judge, the outcome of being caught with marijuana will now simply be a $100 fine. The new law will be in effect on January 1st and include anyone caught with up to an ounce of marijuana. Basically the possession of the drug is seen no different by California now than speeding is.

    Schwarzenegger signed the bill because it will save the state a ton of money since there will no longer need to be a judge and attorneys appointed to each and every one of the misdemeanor offenses involving marijuana possession. Last year alone there were 60,000 Californians caught with the drug, and in the last decade approximately 500,000 offenders.

    I am trying not to be cynical here but really isn’t this a ploy to make sure that Proposition 19 which legalizes marijuana on the November ballot will NOT pass? The fact is the medicinal marijuana law is a mockery and the use of marijuana is very common place – like alcohol in California.

    I really don’t know how California will EVER solve its numerous problems with more stoned out citizens. But, the current law is really a joke anyway.