President 2012: Michele Bachmann To Address California GOP Convention

Posted 3 CommentsPosted in California Republican Party, Michele Bachmann, President 2012

Republican presidential candidate, Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., speaks during a rally at the Delaware County fairgrounds in Manchester Iowa, Monday, July 25, 2011

A Friday night speech which is NOT prime time but coming to California must mean fundraising time.
GOP presidential hopeful Michele Bachmann will make a trip to Southern California in September to speak at the California Republican Party’s fall convention.

The conservative Minnesota congresswoman is scheduled to address delegates on the first night of the three-day convention, which will be held in Los Angeles Sept 16-18.

CRP Chairman Tom Del Beccaro said in a statement that he believes Bachmann’s “pure energy, vibrancy and leadership will be a hit with our delegates.”

“This is a great opportunity for us to hear directly from one of the Republican Party’s leading presidential candidates,” he said.

The full speaker line-up has yet to be confirmed, though CRP spokesman Mark Standriff said invitations have been extended to other GOP presidential candidates as well.

Interesting that Bachmann who, if the GOP Presidential nominee, will have NO chance of beating President Obama is still coming to the Golden State. Obviously, it is to meet with donors and to fundriase but it may also be to preempt Mitt Romney and Rick Perry (who has addressed the convention previously) from having an exclusive forum in the vast nationwide media market which is Los Angeles.

I might actually buy a ticket for the Friday night speech and/or cover the event for flapsblog.

Day By Day June 30 and July 1, 2011 – Just in Time

Posted 1 CommentPosted in California, California Republican Party, Day By Day, Michele Bachmann

Day By Day by Chris Muir

Day By Day by Chris Muir

Good morning everyone as we prepare for a major holiday weekend, national fundraising numbers are filtering out of D.C.. Yeah Obama is able to raise some big money and everyone is waiting to see what Michele Bachmann is able to raise.

And, California sales taxes, plus motor vehicle registration fees decrease because of the California GOP’s resistance to tax increases. Good job, California GOP.

As the POLS flee Washington and Sacramento for the 4th of July, we can have solace that it could be worse, since the NBA, NFL and the state of Minnesota are now effectively shutdown.

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The Day By Day Archive

Flap’s California Morning Collection: June 24, 2011

Posted Posted in California Citizens Redistricting Commission, Flap's California Morning Collection, Jerry Brown, Los Angeles Community College District, Peter Foy, Proposition 13

A morning collection of links and comments about my home, California.

The first from my friend Jon Fleishman who had this excellent video from Simi Valley neighbor and  Ventura County Supervisor Peter Foy of the Americans for Prosperity on the Los Angeles Community College District.

Gov. Jerry Brown sees little progress on budget, but insists ‘I’m not giving up’

Gov. Jerry Brown said Thursday he was increasingly skeptical that a tax deal could be struck before the July 1 beginning of the new fiscal year, as Democrats and Republicans heatedly blamed each other for the impasse.

Brown, who issued a historic veto of Democrats’ budget plan a week ago, told a gathering of about 250 apartment owners and developers in San Francisco that he continues to seek GOP support for his budget plan, which includes a tax referendum in the fall.

“I’m not giving up,” Brown said, even if he has grown less sanguine about the prospect of a legislative accord.

Although state Controller John Chiang this week invoked a new law to halt lawmakers’ pay until there’s a budget in place, the renewed commotion in the Capitol has produced little progress.

A critical sticking point is that Brown wants to extend sales and vehicle taxes — which Republicans oppose — until an election can be held. He needs the support of at least four GOP lawmakers for both moves. If he fails, the governor said, he will help gather signatures to place taxes on the ballot next year.

“It will take the use of the initiative, in all probability,” he said, to restore California’s financial health.

With talks slipping and time running out, Republicans held an unusual news conference outside the doors of the governor’s Capitol office to blame Brown and his labor supporters for the lack of progress.

“The public unions and the governor have become the problem in this, not the Republicans,” said Sen. Bob Huff (R-Diamond Bar).

In Wood Ranch, nobody planned for this Congressional district boundary

When it comes to drawing a new congressional district, the phrase “close enough for government work” does not apply.

And, for the moment at least, that’s a problem for residents of the master-planned community of Wood Ranch in Simi Valley.

Under case law stemming from the U.S. Supreme Court’s landmark “one man-one vote” decision in 1962, congressional districts in each state must be drawn to make the population of each almost exactly equal.

Under that formula, as the Citizens Redistricting Commission goes about drawing 53 new congressional districts this year in California, each one must have 702,905 people. A variance of one person is allowed.

So where does Wood Ranch come in?

In the draft map for a new congressional district that includes most of Ventura County, the commission moved Moorpark and Simi Valley to a separate district to the east. That arrangement would avoid splitting any city in the county almost.

It turns out the commission needed to take 2,000 people from the combined Moorpark-Simi Valley population of 158,658 to make the numbers work out. To accomplish that, the commission drew a line down the middle of Wood Ranch Parkway.

Simi Valley city officials and residents of Wood Ranch appealed to the commission to find its 2,000 people somewhere else.

“The proposed boundaries fracture neighborhoods in Wood Ranch and place neighbors living on opposite sides of the street in different congressional districts,” wrote Mayor Bob Huber in a letter to the commission. “These divisions appear inconsistent and incompatible with the commission’s goal of respecting neighborhood boundaries to the extent possible.”

Testifying before the panel at a hearing this week in Oxnard, Richard Olson, representing a Wood Ranch homeowners’ association, asked that the planned community be reunited.

“There are 2,000 residents who have separated from everything,” he said.

Jerry Brown says Proposition 13 could be tested if budget talks fail

Gov. Jerry Brown hinted Thursday that if the budget talks with Republicans break down, the initiative fight that would follow would not be limited to Brown’s plans to raise sales, vehicle and income taxes. He said he expects labor groups to pursue changes to Proposition 13, tweaking the current caps on commercial property taxes, if no bipartisan deal can be reached.

“I would expect there will be efforts to accelerate the reassessment of commercial property tax,” Brown said.

During his remarks to about 250 apartment owners and developers at the Moscone Center on Thursday, he acknowledged some of his failures in budget talks, particularly over his proposal to eliminate redevelopment agencies.  “I wouldn’t be ready to write the obituary of redevelopment agencies,” he said. “They’re very powerful and they’re still alive and well despite my best efforts.”

Enjoy your morning!

President 2012 California GOP Poll Watch: Romney 25% Giuliani 17% Palin 10% Paul 7%

Posted 1 CommentPosted in California, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Polling, President 2012, Rick Perry, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin

According to the latest Field Poll.

California Republicans favor presidential candidate Mitt Romney by a comfortable margin over other Republicans, a Field Poll released today shows.

When stacked up against 11 other announced or potential Republican candidates, Romney is the first choice of an eye-catching 25 percent of GOP voters in the state. If former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is excluded, Romney’s share jumps to 30 percent.

“He’s got a commanding lead in the early going,” pollster Mark DiCamillo said. “Romney has the formula of both being well-known and being positively perceived.”

Though the former Massachusetts governor announced his formal candidacy only June 2, Romney has long been beating the bushes for support. He spent $107 million seeking the 2008 Republican nomination, including $8.4 million that he raised from California donors.

The Los Angeles region was the third-leading source of campaign donations for Romney’s 2008 campaign, behind the Boston and Salt Lake City areas, figures compiled by the Center for

Responsive Politics show.

“He’s just a well-known figure,” DiCamillo noted. “He has tremendous name (identification), and that converts to preferences.”

Romney is viewed favorably by 56 percent of California Republicans and unfavorably by only 25 percent.

Perhaps this polling is why Mayor Rudy Giuliani continues to flirt with getting into the race.

But, if Rudy does not, Mitt Romney looks like a winner in California although Michele Bachmann who is a late entrant and is not known near as much – 42% have no impression of her candidacy may play here; as may Texas Governor Rick Perry, if he decides to run.

Flap’s Saturday California Collection: June 11, 2011

Posted 1 CommentPosted in California, Flap's Saturday California Collection

A Saturday collection of links and comments about my home, California.

Around the Capital, Saturday, June 11, 2011

Big Picture:
  • HIGH HOPES (THE QUEST FOR TWO-THIRDS): Democrats are quite likely to have two-thirds in the Senate and, by winning 3 of 5 swing seats, could have two-thirds in the Assembly.  The 2012 presidential may not be the best shot, but it could happen over the decade.  
  • NATIONAL GOP’S GOT THE CALIFORNIA BLUES: The California congressional delegation will be much bluer, with as many as 8 of the GOP’s 19 seats falling moving to the Dem column.  It’s difficult to see how Dems take back the House next year, but it becomes more possible over the decade, depending on redistricting efforts in other states.
  • WILL MALDEF SUE?  The Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Fund is not happy.  They were hoping to see a few more Latino-leaning seats, and hate to see young rising Latino stars (i.e. Luis Alejo and Nora Campos) thrown into the same district.  This might be an easy thing for the Commish to fix, even though they aren’t allowed to cave to such pressure…

By Region

  •     Bay Area – Not too messy, except for the aforementioned Alejo/Campos grouping.
  •     Sacramento – Roger Dickinson, Richard Pan, Mariko Yamada are all in the same Assembly seat.  The Bee suggests Yamada can move to run for a vacant seat, although it’s a tough one (Brown 48, Whitman 44) for one of the Assembly’s most liberal members (and a good friend of mine).
  •     Sacramento – Lois Wolk is hoping for the Wolk/Steinberg seat to be an odd-numbered district, or she’ll have choose to sit out two years to run.  By then, there would likely be more folks interested in, and in the position, to also run for the seat.
  •     Sacramento/San Ramon – Depending on whether Pete Stark decides to retire, Jerry McNerney either can choose either the Bay Area (likely with other candidates), or a new safe San Joaquin seat.  Look for the latter.
  •     Central Coast – The Lois Capps vs. Abel Maldonado battle…now THIS is why independent redistricting is fun.  (47% Brown, 46% Whitman/56% Obama, 41% McCain)
  •     Central Valley – Dennis Cardoza, Jim Costa and Jeff Denham all in the same district.  However, each probably won’t have to move in order to find a neighboring district they can win from, although perennial presence on the target lists will be likely.
  •     Los Angeles – Elton Gallegly and Buck McKeon. I’d bet on the man with the guns.
  •     Los Angeles – Howard Berman did much better when his brother was drawing the lines.  Now he’s seated with Brad Sherman, who has $3m in the bank, and there aren’t any free seats floating around.  Add to it, Berman and Sherman can’t stand each other.
  •     Los Angeles – Who wants to handle the sticky mess in the seat that pairs up John Perez and Holly Mitchell?  Are there any seats on the Unemployment Insurance Appeals Board?
  •     Los Angeles – Things are a mess on the east side.  Lucille Royball-Allard and Xavier Bacerra are now in the same seat, and Royball-Allard likely won’t challenge Bacerra.  President Obama, got any appointments for Maxine Waters or Grace Napolitano? 
  •     Inland Empire/Orange County – David Drier and Gary Miller are likely going to move to K Street.  Drier is now in a Dem seat, and Roger Hernandez has already announced his candidacy.
  •     San Diego – Juan Vargas has already announced for a run for Congress for the open Imperial Valley seat.

California Citizen’s Redistricting Commission First Draft Maps – Redistricting Partners

The California Citizen’s Commission has released first drafts of maps for the 2011 statewide redistricting process.  These maps have been build through more than 30 public hearings, public testimony from thousands of individuals, and presentations of statewide plans from leading civil rights and civic organizations.

In the coming weeks these plans will be debated.  While the public process will not include partisanship, where incumbents live or what candidates could be running where, we believe this is an important piece of information for the media, public, and elected officials.

Draft Congressional Plan: [MAPS] or [DATA: CRC First Draft Political Data]

Draft Assembly Plan: [MAPS] or [DATA: CRC First Draft Assembly Political Data]

Draft Senate Plan: [MAPS] or [DATA: CRC First Draft Senate Political Data ]

Meridian Pacific California Redistricting Maps and Analysis Links

Throughout the California redistricting process, statewide plans will
be put forth by the Citizens Redistricting Commission as well as a
number of interest groups from across the state. As these plans are made
available, we will publish them here and provide a district-by-district
analysis based upon US Census Data as well as voter registration.

Analysis is available for the following plans:

District maps draw a new political landscape

California’s new voting districts could put Democrats within reach of as many as five more seats in Congress and enough in the state Legislature for the two-thirds majority needed to raise taxes, according to Democratic and Republican analysts.

Draft maps of the new political boundaries, drawn for the first time by an independent panel rather than party bosses, were released Friday and are expected to usher in the most dramatic shakeup of California’s state and federal offices in decades. Eventually, some powerful incumbents could lose their jobs.

“You’re looking at three to five Republican members of Congress that just kind of vanish,” said Matt Rexroad, a Republican political consultant in Sacramento who advises clients on redistricting. The prospect of Democrats securing two-thirds of both state legislative houses is “very much in play,” he said. No single party has held a supermajority in both the Assembly and Senate in many decades.

The maps are a work in progress, subject to change until the California Citizens Redistricting Commission’s Aug. 15 deadline to complete its task. It is charged with keeping together neighborhoods, ethnic groups, socioeconomic groups and other “communities of interest” without regard to their party registration or any risk to current officeholders.

Latino groups sharply criticized the proposed new districts, arguing that they would give one of California’s fastest-growing ethnic populations even less political power than it has now. Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Assn. of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials and a veteran of reapportionment battles, called the new maps the “worst-case scenario for Latinos in California.”

New redistricting maps show South Bay losing seats

Proposed redistricting maps released Friday would dramatically alter the face of the South Bay’s political landscape, eliminating two of the region’s congressional districts and once again linking the Palos Verdes Peninsula to its coastal neighbors.

The congressional district held by Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher would be completely contained in Orange County, forfeiting the Palos Verdes Peninsula to the neighboring district once represented by Rep. Jane Harman.

The new lines drawn by the California Citizens Redistricting Commission, based on 2010 census figures, also call for excising Carson from the district represented by Democratic Rep. Laura Richardson. That city would move into the area represented by Rep. Maxine Waters, who would forfeit Westchester and Playa del Rey under the new political boundaries.(…)

(…)Under the commission’s proposal, the Palos Verdes Peninsula would be moved into a congressional district that stretches from San Pedro to Santa Monica.

If approved, the area would encompass the homes of Republican Craig Huey and his Democratic challenger, Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn, who are running for the congressional seat vacated when Harman stepped down earlier this year.

Huey does not live within the district’s current boundaries. Neither candidate could be reached for comment about the proposed maps.

“That’s a huge coastal seat that still appears to lean Democratic,” said Allan Hoffenblum, a former GOP consultant and publisher of the California Target Book, a nonpartisan guide to state politics.

“If Janice Hahn wins, it could be a good seat for her to keep,” Hoffenblum said. “It might not be a totally safe Democratic seat, but I think it could be tough for a Republican to win in a district like that.”

Enjoy your Saturday!

Update with Link to Interactive Maps: California Citizen’s Redistricting Committee Votes 14-0 to Approve First Draft District Maps

Posted 2 CommentsPosted in California, California Citizens Redistricting Commission
*****Update*****


The California Citizens Redistricting Commission has released a two minute video featuring all 14 members of the Commission talking about the redistricting process for Legislative and Congressional districts and asking the public for help.

The first maps are out for California’s Congressional, State Assembly, State Senate and Board of Equalization Districts. The link to the draft maps is here.

With four 14-0 votes, the California Citizens Redistricting Commission has released its first round of draft maps for Congressional, State Assembly, State Senate and Board of Equalization districts.

The Commission is now soliciting public comment on the draft districts.  Testimony can be submitted online to votersfirstact@crc.ca.gov, by mail to the Citizens Redistricting Commission, 901 P Street, Suite 154-A, Sacramento, CA  95814 or by FAX at 916-651-5711. The Commission will be holding 11 public input hearings in June on the draft maps.  The hearing schedule and the draft maps can be found at the Commission’s website at www.wedrawthelines.ca.gov.

Now, remember folks these are draft maps and the pundits will be going crazy with the political permutations.

And, California Republicans don’t be too disappointed because California continues to be a deep blue state demographically. While redistricting will improve some chances of winning a few seats, particularly in the California Legislature, the fact is the GOP will probably lose 3-5 GOP Congressional seats to the Democrats. The Democrats will continue to dominate the Republicans in the state legislature, just as they have for a couple of decades now.

So, have at the maps and write, e-mail or fax your thoughts and concerns to the Citizen’s Commission.

I will post more analysis about individual maps and districts as they become available.