The PPIC Statewide Survey: Special Survey on Californians and the Initiative Process, October 2005 has ben released:

Some findings of the current survey

• 54% of likely voters consider the special election a bad idea.
• As the election approaches, none of the measures actively supported by Governor Schwarzenegger enjoys majority support among likely voters:
  • Proposition 74 (teacher tenure), 46% yes, 48% no
  • Proposition 75 (use of union dues), 46% yes, 46% no
  • Proposition 76 (spending and funding limits), 30% yes, 62% no
  • Proposition 77 (redistricting), 36% yes, 50% no
• Approval ratings of public officials among all Californians:
  • Governor Schwarzenegger, 33% approve, 58% disapprove
  • California Legislature, 25% approve, 56% disapprove
  • President Bush, 36% approve, 60% disapprove
  • U.S. Congress, 42% approve, 46% disapprove
  • Senator Feinstein, 50% approve, 27% disapprove
  • Senator Boxer, 48% approve, 29% disapprove
• Likely voters are very unhappy with the federal government:
  • 74% have little or no confidence in the federal government to do what is right
  • 69% believe that the federal government wastes a lot of tax dollars.

Flap reproduces the entire summary of the poll to point out the poll cynicism and bias. The poll is OFF.

The entire 38 page PPIC Survey is here.

Approval of Feinstein and Boxer and disapproving everything and everyone else by very wide margins……. not very credible.

Flap says place this poll in the circular file.

Stay tuned for the Field and L.A. Times polls.

November 8 election day is looming.

Stay tuned.

The ASSociated Press has Poll: Gov. Schwarzenegger’s Measures Lag.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s “year of reform” initiatives are proving a tough sell to California voters despite a multimillion dollar advertising blitz, according to a poll released Thursday. None of his measures on the Nov. 8 ballot has majority support, and two are opposed by wide margins.

Telephone interviews were conducted with 1,079 likely voters over seven days ending Oct. 23. There was a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Governor Schwarzenegger’s Job Approval Rating:

Approve 38%

Disapprove 57%

Proposition 74 extends the probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to 5 years, and makes it easier to dismiss teachers with unsatisfactory performance evaluations.

Approve 46%

Disapprove 48%

But within the margin of error.

Proposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written consent of union members.

Approve 46%

Disapprove 46%

Again, within the margin of error.

Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues.

Approve 30%

Disapprove 62%

Proposition 77 changes the way California draws boundaries for Congressional and legislative districts. District boundaries would be drawn by a panel of retired judges and approved by voters in a statewide election.

Approve 36%

Disapprove 50%

While the poll numbers are not very encouraging for the governor, pollster Mark Baldassare cautioned that the results don’t mean the election is over.

“All these measures are close,” he said. “There’s a considerable amount of time . . . and there will be new messages and counter-messages. I don’t feel like this election is necessarily settled.”

This poll although not favorble to the Governor is not disastrous either.

Indeed, Proposition 74 and 75 may be winning since the results are within the margin of error.

And Schwarzenegger has forced the California Teachers Association to spend $52.9 million fighting these measures – not a small chunk of change.

Stay tuned the Field Organization and Los Angeles Times will soon release their polls.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

The ASSociated Press has Poll: Gov. Schwarzenegger’s Measures Lag.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s “year of reform” initiatives are proving a tough sell to California voters despite a multimillion dollar advertising blitz, according to a poll released Thursday. None of his measures on the Nov. 8 ballot has majority support, and two are opposed by wide margins.

Telephone interviews were conducted with 1,079 likely voters over seven days ending Oct. 23. There was a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Governor Schwarzenegger’s Job Approval Rating:

Approve 38%

Disapprove 57%

Proposition 74 extends the probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to 5 years, and makes it easier to dismiss teachers with unsatisfactory performance evaluations.

Approve 46%

Disapprove 48%

But within the margin of error.

Proposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written consent of union members.

Approve 46%

Disapprove 46%

Again, within the margin of error.

Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues.

Approve 30%

Disapprove 62%

Proposition 77 changes the way California draws boundaries for Congressional and legislative districts. District boundaries would be drawn by a panel of retired judges and approved by voters in a statewide election.

Approve 36%

Disapprove 50%

While the poll numbers are not very encouraging for the governor, pollster Mark Baldassare cautioned that the results don’t mean the election is over.

“All these measures are close,” he said. “There’s a considerable amount of time . . . and there will be new messages and counter-messages. I don’t feel like this election is necessarily settled.”

This poll although not favorble to the Governor is not disastrous either.

Indeed, Proposition 74 and 75 may be winning since the results are within the margin of error.

And Schwarzenegger has forced the California Teachers Association to spend $52.9 million fighting these measures – not a small chunk of change.

Stay tuned the Field Organization and Los Angeles Times will soon release their polls.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger speaks at a town hall-style meeting promoting his special election campaign, in the backyard of Jon and Lauri Irvine’s residence in Arcadia, Calif., Wednesday, Oct. 26, 2005.

The ASSociated Press has Schwarzenegger Vows to Rein in Spending.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger warned Wednesday that legislators could push California into a nightmarish era of higher taxes and runaway spending unless voters endorse his proposal to place tighter controls on the state budget.

In a staged poolside appearance at a private home, the Republican governor told an invitation-only audience that Proposition 76 would give him the tools to fend off a Legislature eager to dig deeper into taxpayers’ pockets.

He also suggested that without greater budget discipline, the state might be unable to meet the mounting demands for everything from electric power to health care to highways.

“They have come to me with ideas like raising the property tax, raising the income tax, raising the taxes on the rich, raising the sales tax, and the tax on gasoline,” the governor said, referring to the Legislature’s Democratic leadership, which opposes the initiative.

Schwarzenegger said Democratic leaders “always want more because they are spending addicts — they cannot help themselves.”

Schwarzenegger is reintroducing and reinforcing the tax and spend themes of his first “recall” election. Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues.

The latest poll shows it winning:

54% Yes
41% No
5% Undecided

But, the classless union bosses had their goons out in force to protest – even at this private home:

Protesting firefighters refuse to shake hands with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger after he spoke at a town hall meeting promoting his special election campaign at a private residence in Arcadia, Calif., Wednesday, Oct. 26, 2005. The firefighters were protesting Schwarzenneger’s proposals to change state government.

This reminds Flap of those idiota and RUDE union leader firefighters from L.A. and Ventura County who a few weeks ago MOANED about being “ordered” to be present with the Governor when Schwarzenegger came to thank them for their service here in the Conejo Valley.

Stay tuned as the town halls continue and the Governor meets up with Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante for a quasi debate on Friday.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 76

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, left, talks with Marco Rodriquez, seated at right, during a break in the taping of a Spanish-language talk show at the Univision Television station held in Sacramento, Calif., Tuesday, Oct. 25, 2005. Schwarzenegger appeared on the policy and political debate program ‘Voz Y Voto’, where he discussed his ballot initiatives on the upcoming Nov. 8th special election and took a few questions from the audience. The show is to be broadcast Saturday.

The ASSociated Press and San Francisco Chronicle has Select Hispanic audience questions Schwarzenegger on immigration.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger took his special election campaign before a hand-picked Hispanic audience that was more interested in asking him about amnesty and driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants than his “year of reform” ballot measures.

Schwarzenegger’s appearance Tuesday in the capital studio of Spanish-language television network Univision was another step in his attempt to connect with voters two weeks before they decide his proposals to change state government.

Schwarzenegger on the road………

Will his personal poll numbers improve?

The Governor is in a two minute drill towards the California special election.

But, the unions and their leftie lackies are already moaning about the event.

Critics immediately assailed the Univision session because it did not provide time for any of his opponents to speak. Univision’s chairman, Jerry Perenchio, is one of the governor’s largest campaign supporters, having donated more than $3 million to Schwarzenegger campaign committees since he took office two years ago.

“This amounts to a one-hour infomercial for the governor,” said Roger Salazar, a spokesman for the Alliance for a Better California, the coalition of labor groups opposing the governor’s ballot agenda. “It is nothing more than one of his biggest contributors providing him the opportunity to deliver his message on his terms.”

The question-and-answer session will be broadcast statewide Saturday on Univision stations. The company controls two broadcast networks and is the nation’s dominant Spanish-language media company.

Flap recommends a debate.

How about Schwarzenegger vs. Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante in Fresno this Friday?

How about it, Alliance for a Better California, and the California Teachers Association?

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger responds to questions during the Special Election Showdown, at the Dean Lesher Regional Center for the Arts in Walnut Creek, Calif., Monday Oct. 24, 2005. Schwarzenegger and state Sen. Don Perata and others appeared at the forum to discuss issues in California’s upcoming election.

The ASSociated Press has Schwarzenegger: Special Election Crucial.

Defending his November special election before an audience of voters, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said Monday the ballot initiatives are crucial to continue changes he launched two years ago.

He cast the Nov. 8 election as the next step of the 2003 recall election that propelled him to office. Voters, he said, sent him to Sacramento to rebuild the state’s economy and fix a moribund political system.

“We need reform. We have a broken system. That’s why you sent me to Sacramento — to fix the broken system,” he said. “Please give me the tools.”

He contended his policies have created 400,000 new jobs and billions in new revenue.

The 90-minute forum in the east San Francisco Bay area was the first time Schwarzenegger sat for an extended time to field unscripted questions from an audience not chosen by his staff.

Dan Weintraub of the Sacramento Bee was live-blogging the event.

Check out his coverage here.

My take

We’ll have to see if anybody’s watching this forum or will watch others if they are held. But if the governor is smart, he’ll barnstorm the state and do them in every city. Most voters haven’t seen Schwarzenegger since the campaign, other than in brief snips on the news. They’ve seen and heard him portrayed as an ogre, a bully, an idiot. But his command of the issues is far better than it was two years ago, and he can articulately make his case for his measures, even in the face of tough questions from voters who disagree with him. He relied on his stump speech material at times, but he wasn’t overly scripted. He mixed in humor. He used anecdotes to make his points. He wasn’t perfect. But he was close to it. His opponents weren’t terrible, but they were what they were: defenders of the status quo. If two-thirds of Californians think the state is going in the wrong direction, they’re not likely to be convinced by these folks that everything is just fine.

Sacramento Bee Columnist Dan Walters and Proposition 77’s Steve Poizner, Photo Courtesy of Dan Weintraub

The Governor is performing well and although he has already won the special election, he may be initiating a new era in California governance.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

President Bush and wife Laura at the dedication of an Air Force One exhibit at the Reagan Library.

The San Francisco Chronicle has Bush visit stirs election anxiety Governor skips event — his backers call trip ill-timed

President Bush sought to draw a link between himself and former President Ronald Reagan on Friday, comparing his war on terrorism to the Cold War — even as a political cold war continued between Bush and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was a glaring no-show during the president’s two-day California trip.

Reagan “recognized that freedom was opposed by dangerous enemies,” Bush said at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library here. “And … America has always prevailed by standing firmly on principles and never backing down in the face of evil.”

But Bush’s visit, at a party fundraiser Thursday night and at the dedication Friday of an Air Force One exhibit at the library before an audience of high-profile state and national Republicans, was termed “ill-timed” by supporters of the governor, who is facing a difficult special election in just over two weeks.

So, what affect will this FLAP have on the California Special Election?

Well, at least the Governor did not have to witness the Bush/Arnold hybrid protesters.

“The governor’s got challenges, and it’s a very tense time for both of them,” said Ken Khachigian, a former Reagan speechwriter and longtime political adviser. “I think they’re both extremely focused on what they’re doing, and as a result, the challenges are higher and the emotions rise.

“… The president’s trip to California will have no effect on the outcome of the special election, and the governor’s not showing up here will have no effect on President Bush,” Khachigian said. “Staff people just got carried away on both sides.”

Agreed!

The President had a good event and the Governor had a few bad press pieces but the FLAP will all but be forgotten by Monday’s press cycle.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, George Bush, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Bear Flag League

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

and

Cross Posted to the SoCal Law Blog

Previously on Flap, California Special Election Watch: New Poll Results

A new Survey USA Poll has been released.

In an election today, 10/18/05, 3 weeks to the 11/8/05 vote, California voters approve Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76 and Proposition 77, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll of 613 likely voters.

Support for all 5 measures is strongly tied to approval of Governor Schwarzenegger. Those who approve of the job the Governor is doing, vote overwhelmingly “Yes” on all 5 Propositions. Those who disapprove of the job the Governor is doing oppose all 5 Propositions. Interest in ballot measures intensifies as the election approaches and ad dollars are spent to influence voters. These numbers can and should be expected to fluctuate,

Proposition 73 requires that physicians notify the parent of a pregnant minor at least 48 hours before performing an abortion. If the special election were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, would you vote Yes on Proposition 73? Or would you vote No?

60% Yes
38% No
2% Undecided

Proposition 74 extends the probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to 5 years, and makes it easier to dismiss teachers with unsatisfactory performance evaluations. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 74? Or would you vote No?

53% Yes
45% No
1% Undecided

Proposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written consent of union members. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 75? Or would you vote no?

56% Yes
42% No
2% Undecided

Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 76? Or would you vote no?

54% Yes
41% No
5% Undecided

Proposition 77 changes the way California draws boundaries for Congressional and legislative districts. District boundaries would be drawn by a panel of retired judges and approved by voters in a statewide election. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on 77? Or would you vote no?

54% Yes
41% No
5% Undecided

This is continued good news for the Governor.

Absentee ballots have been mailed and requests for them are greater than Arnold’s last election in 2003.

Elections officials in Los Angeles County, which is home to nearly a quarter of California’s registered voters, already have sent out 445,784 absentee ballots. That’s up from 338,747 at the same point in the 2004 primary race and 350,747 in the recall.

“We’re actually running closer to the numbers we saw in the 2004 general election,” said Kristin Heffron, chief deputy registrar for Los Angeles County.

There’s a similar situation in Santa Clara County, where the 200,972 absentee ballots already mailed to voters are more than the 132,965 issued in the 2004 primary and not far behind the 232,231 mailed out for the November general election.

“I think there’s interest out there,” said Alma Rosas, a spokeswoman for the Santa Clara Country registrar. “It’s not like a governor’s race, with a 50 percent turnout, or the 70 percent that turns out for a presidential race, but we’re looking at a 40 to 45 percent turnout, like for a primary.”

Stay Tuned.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page