Election 2006 Watch: James Webb Beats George Allen – Democrats Take Control of the United States Senate

Posted Posted in Election 2006, George Allen, James Webb, Politics

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AP: Democrats Take Control of the Senate

Democrats wrested control of the Senate from Republicans Wednesday with an upset victory in Virginia, giving the party complete domination of Capitol Hill for the first time since 1994.

Jim Webb’s squeaker win over incumbent Sen. George Allen gave Democrats their 51st seat in the Senate, an astonishing turnabout at the hands of voters unhappy with Republican scandal and unabated violence in Iraq. Allen was the sixth Republican incumbent senator defeated in Tuesday’s elections.

The Senate breakdown will be 49-49-2 with the two independents voting with the Democrats.

Just as Flap predicted – A DEBACLE

The Senate had teetered at 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans for most of Wednesday, with Virginia hanging in the balance. Webb’s victory ended Republican hopes of eking out a 50-50 split, with Vice President Dick Cheney wielding tie-breaking authority.

The Associated Press contacted election officials in all 134 localities where voting occurred, obtaining updated numbers Wednesday. About half the localities said they had completed their postelection canvassing and nearly all had counted outstanding absentees. Most were expected to be finished by Friday.

The new AP count showed Webb with 1,172,538 votes and Allen with 1,165,302, a difference of 7,236. Virginia has had two statewide vote recounts in modern history, but both resulted in vote changes of no more than a few hundred votes.

An adviser to Allen, speaking on condition of anonymity because his boss had not formally decided to end the campaign, said the senator wanted to wait until most of canvassing was completed before announcing his decision, possibly as early as Thursday evening.

The adviser said that Allen was disinclined to request a recount if the final vote spread was similar to that of election night.

The victory puts Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., in line to become Senate majority leader. He has led the Democrats since Tom Daschle, D-S.D., was defeated two years ago.

The Macaca Flap killed George Allen and the GOP’s control of the United States Senate.

This Democrat Party majority may not be so easy to defend in 2008 – where the attention now goes.

The Dems up for re-election in ’08 include Max Baucus in Montana, Tim Johnson in South Dakota, Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, Mark Pryor in Arkansas, Tom Harkin in Iowa, and Jay Rockefeller in West Virginia. (Other “safe” Democrats include Slow Joe Biden, Dick Durbin, Carl Levin, John Kerry, Frank Lautenber, and Rhode Island’s Jack Reed.) Baucus, Johnson, Landrieu, Pryor, Harkin and Rockefeller all must have begun worrying about the burden they will have to carry in ’08. The first order of business for the GOP will be recruitment of great challengers for these races.

Time to get busy and recruit some good candidates.

Any bets that James Webb will be Hillary’s vice presidential running mate in 2008?

Stay tuned….


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Election 2006 Watch: John Tester Wins Montana Senate Seat

Posted Posted in Democrats, Election 2006, GOP, Politics

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Sen. Conrad Burns, R-Mont., walks out of the Billings Hotel and Convention Center in Billings, Mont., Wednesday, Nov. 8, 2006. Incumbent Sen. Burns was locked in the fight of his political life early Wednesday, trailing Democrat Jon Tester by fewer than 2,000 votes as the GOP tried to hang on to control of the Senate.

AP: Democrat wins Montana seat, ties Senate

Republican Sen. Conrad Burns lost his job in a squeaker of a race Wednesday, thrust from office due to his own gaffes, his ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff and a determined campaign by Democrat Jon Tester, a farmer.

Tester’s win gave Democrats at least half the U.S. Senate, but the party still needed a victory in a tight Virginia race to gain control.

Burns, 71, first elected in 1988 as a folksy, backslapping outsider, has been under siege because of his ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff and because of his own gaffes — including an incident in which he cursed at firefighters.

With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Tester had 198,032 votes, or 49.1 percent, to Burns’ 194,904 votes, or 48.3 percent.

Put a fork in Conrad Burns – He’s done!

Also put a fork in the GOP’s chances to hold control of the United States Senate. There will be a recount in Virigina but it will be a long shot at best.

Senate breakdown will be 49-49-2 with the two independents voting with the Democrats.

Just as Flap predicted – A DEBACLE

Stay tuned…….

Previous:

Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE – Senate

United States House 2006 Election Watch: Rush Limbaugh and the Coming GOP DEBACLE

Michael Ramirez on the Coming GOP Debacle

United States House 2006 Election Watch: SEA OF BLUE

Election 2006 Watch: The Coming Republican DEBACLE


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Election 2006 Watch: GOP Loses Control of House But Senate Continues Contested

Posted Posted in California, Election 2006, Politics

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House Democratic Leader Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., fires up fellow Democrats at an election night rally at the Hyatt Regency Hotel near the Capitol in Washington Tuesday, Nov. 7, 2006. She is joined, left to right, by Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, and Rep. Kendrick Meek, D-Fla.

U.S. House: GOP Loses Control by how much will be the issue.

U.S. Senate: Continues in play. Virginia, Montana, Missouri and Tennessee are contested.

The Maryland Senate race is NOT over and the Washington Post has retracted its projection.

Maryland Election results are here.

Watch along with Flap at the links above.

Stay tuned……..

Update:

Riehl World calls if for Allen but Flap feels it is premature. This race will be recounted and will determine control of the Senate.

Update 12:07 AM EST

Looks like a recount in Virginia with Montana and Missouri going blue.  If Virginia goes to Webb then Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate – as per Flap’s prediction.

The GOP will lose between 20 and 25 seats in the House and control.

THE GOP DEBACLE HAS ARRIVED! 

Previous:

Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE – House

Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE – Senate 


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Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE – House

Posted Posted in Democrats, Election 2006, GOP, Politics

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Election Projection has final United States House Election 2006 Projections:

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Current: 232 GOP, 202 DEM, 1 IND
Projected: 208 GOP, 227 DEM, 0 IND
DEM +25, GOP -24, IND -1

Election Projection is forecasting a net loss of 25 House seats and loss of GOP control of the House. While this is a pessimistic account, I do not forsee any other likely scenario. Here is Election Projections summary of the race:

Summary of Contested House Races

State Major Candidates Projected Result
Arizona – CD 1 Rick Renzi (R)-inc vs Ellen Simon (D) Weak GOP Hold
Arizona – CD 5 J.D. Hayworth (R)-inc vs Harry Mitchell (D) Weak DEM Gain
Arizona – CD 8 OPEN: R. Graf (R) vs G. Giffords (D) Mod DEM Gain
California – CD 11 Richard Pombo (R)-inc vs Jerry McNerny (D) Weak GOP Hold
Colorado – CD 4 M. Musgrave (R)-inc vs A. Paccione (D) Weak GOP Hold
Colorado – CD 7 OPEN: O’Donnell (R) vs Perlmutter (D) Weak DEM Gain
Conn – CD 2 Rob Simmons (R)-inc vs Joe Courtney (D) Weak DEM Gain
Conn – CD 4 Chris Shays (R)-inc vs Diane Farrell (D) Weak GOP Hold
Conn – CD 5 Nancy Johnson (R)-inc vs Chris Murphy (D) Weak DEM Gain
Florida – CD 13 OPEN: V. Buchanan (R) vs C. Jennings (D) Weak DEM Gain
Florida – CD 16 OPEN: J. Negron (R) vs T. Mahoney (D) Weak DEM Gain
Florida – CD 22 Clay Shaw (R)-inc vs Ron Klein (D) Weak DEM Gain
Georgia – CD 8 Jim Marshall (D)-inc vs “Mac” Collins (R) Weak DEM Hold
Georgia – CD 12 John Barrow (D)-inc vs Max Burns (R) Weak DEM Hold
Idaho – CD 1 Sali (R)-inc vs Grant (D) Weak GOP Hold
Illinois – CD 6 OPEN: P. Roskam(R)-inc vs T. Duckworth(D) Weak GOP Hold
Illinois – CD 8 M. Bean (D)-inc vs D. McSweeney (R) Weak DEM Hold
Indiana – CD 2 Chris Chocola (R)-inc vs Joseph Donnelly (D) Weak DEM Gain
Indiana – CD 8 John Hostettler (R)-inc vs Brad Ellsworth (D) Mod DEM Gain
Indiana – CD 9 Michael Sodrel (R)-inc vs Baron Hill (D) Weak GOP Hold
Iowa – CD 1 OPEN: Mike Whalen (R) vs Bruce Braley (D) Mod DEM Gain
Kentucky – CD 3 Anne Northup (R)-inc vs John Yarmuth (D) Weak GOP Hold
Kentucky – CD 4 Geoff Davis (R)-inc vs Ken Lucas (D) Weak GOP Hold
Minnesota – CD 1 Gil Gutknecht, Jr. (R) vs Tim Walz (D) Weak GOP Hold
Minnesota – CD 6 OPEN: M. Bachmann (R) vs P. Wetterling (D) Weak GOP Hold
Nevada – CD 3 Jon Porter (R) vs Tessa Hafen (D) Porter +4.8
New Hamp – CD 2 Charles Bass (R)-inc vs Paul Hodes (D) Weak DEM Gain
New Mexico – CD 1 Heather Wilson (R)-inc vs Patricia Madrid (D) Weak DEM Gain
New York – CD 19 Sue Kelly (R)-inc vs John Hall (D) Weak GOP Hold
New York – CD 20 John Sweeney (R)-inc vs Kirsten Gillibrand (D) Weak DEM Gain
New York – CD 24 OPEN: R. Meier (R) vs M. Arcuri (D) Weak DEM Gain
New York – CD 25 James Walsh (R)-inc vs Dan Maffei (D) Weak GOP Hold
New York – CD 26 Thomas Reynolds (R)-inc vs Jack Davis (D) Weak GOP Hold
New York – CD 29 Randy Kuhl (R)-inc vs Eric Massa (D) Weak GOP Hold
N. Carolina – CD 8 Robin Hayes (R)-inc vs Larry Kissell (D) Weak GOP Hold
N. Carolina – CD 11 Charles Taylor (R)-inc vs Heath Shuler (D) Weak DEM Gain
Ohio – CD 1 Steve Chabot (R)-inc vs John Cranley (D) Weak DEM Gain
Ohio – CD 2 Jean Schmidt (R)-inc vs Wuslin (D) Weak GOP Hold
Ohio – CD 15 Deborah Pryce (R)-inc vs Mary Jo Kilroy (D) Weak DEM Gain
Ohio – CD 18 OPEN: Joy Padgett (R) vs Zack Space (D) Weak DEM Gain
Penn – CD 4 Melissa Hart (R)-inc vs Jason Altmire (D) Weak GOP Hold
Penn – CD 6 Jim Gerlach (R)-inc vs Lois Murphy (D) Weak DEM Gain
Penn – CD 7 Curt Weldon (R)-inc vs Joseph Sestak (D) Weak DEM Gain
Penn – CD 8 M. Fitzpatrick (R)-inc vs P. Murphy (D) Weak GOP Hold
Penn – CD 10 Don Sherwood (R)-inc vs Chris Carney (D) Weak DEM Gain
Texas – CD 22 OPEN: Sekula-Gibbs (R-WI) vs Lampson (D) Weak DEM Gain
Vermont – CD 1 OPEN: P. Welch (D) vs M. Rainville (R) Mod DEM Gain
Virginia CD-2 Thelma Drake (R)-inc vs Philip Kellam (D) Weak GOP Hold
Washington – CD 8 Dan Reichert (R)-inc vs Darcy Burner (D) Weak GOP Hold
Wisconsin – CD 8 OPEN: John Gard (R) vs Steve Kagen (D) Weak DEM Gain
Wyoming – CD 1 Barbara Cubin (R)-inc vs Gary Trauner (D) Weak GOP Hold
BOLD – party turnover

Race ratings:

  • “Weak” – less than 5%
  • “Mod” – 5% to 15%
  • “Strong” – greater than 15%
  • For projected margins of victory, click here

    The Real Clear Politics House Summary chart is here.

    Current House (232 R, 202 D, 1 I): Democrats Need to Pick Up 15 Seats For Control
    Republican Seats
    Leans Dem (13)
    Toss Up (14)
    Leans GOP (21)
    Leans GOP (0)
    Toss Up (2)
    Leans Dem (4)




     

     

    The GOP House Debacle has arrived. Robert Novak has a conservative loss of 18 seats for the GOP. His analysis is here.

    The next Speaker of the House will be Nancy Pelosi (D-California).

    For election night coverage NZ Bear at Truth Laid Bear has set up an election tracker page here.

    Previous:

    Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE – Senate

    United States House 2006 Election Watch: Rush Limbaugh and the Coming GOP DEBACLE

    Michael Ramirez on the Coming GOP Debacle

    United States House 2006 Election Watch: SEA OF BLUE

    Election 2006 Watch: The Coming Republican DEBACLE


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    Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE – Senate

    Posted Posted in Democrats, Election 2006, GOP, Politics

    cox&forkum06.11.05web

    Election Projection has final United States Senate Election 2006 Projections:

    ELECTIONPROJECTIONNOVEMBER8

    Current: 55 GOP, 44 DEM, 1 IND
    Projected: 49 GOP, 49 DEM, 2 IND
    DEM +5, GOP -6, IND +1

    Election Projection is forecasting a net loss of six Senate seats and loss of GOP control of the Senate. While this is a pessimistic account, I do not forsee any other likely scenario. Here is election Projections summary of the race:

    Summary of Senate Races

    State Major Candidates Projected Result
    Arizona Jon Kyl (R)-inc vs Jim Pederson (D) Mod GOP Hold
    California Dianne Feinstein (D)-inc vs Richard Mountjoy (R) Strong DEM Hold
    Connecticut Lieberman(I) / Lamont(D) / Schlesinger(R) Mod IND Gain
    Delaware Tom Carper (D)-inc vs Jan Ting? (R) Strong DEM Hold
    Florida Bill Nelson (D)-inc vs Katherine Harris? (R) Strong DEM Hold
    Hawaii Daniel Akaka (D)-inc vs Cynthia Thielen (R) Strong DEM Hold
    Indiana Richard Lugar (R)-inc (unopposed) Strong GOP Hold
    Maine Olympia Snowe (R)-inc vs Jean Hay Bright (D) Strong GOP Hold
    Maryland OPEN: Ben Cardin (D) vs Michael Steele (R) Weak DEM Hold
    Massachusetts Ted Kennedy (D)-inc vs Kenneth Chase (R) Strong DEM Hold
    Michigan Debbie Stabenow (D)-inc vs Mike Bouchard (R) Mod DEM Hold
    Minnesota OPEN: Amy Klobuchar (D) vs Mark Kennedy (R) Strong DEM Hold
    Mississippi Trent Lott (R)-inc vs Erik Fleming (D) Strong GOP Hold
    Missouri Jim Talent (R)-inc vs Claire McCaskill (D) Weak DEM Gain
    Montana Conrad Burns (R)-inc vs Jon Tester (D) Weak DEM Gain
    Nebraska Ben Nelson (D)-inc vs Peter Ricketts (R) Strong DEM Hold
    Nevada John Ensign (R)-inc vs Jack Carter (D) Mod GOP Hold
    New Jersey Robert Menendez (D)-inc vs Tom Kean, Jr. (R) Weak DEM Hold
    New Mexico Jeff Bingaman (D)-inc vs Allen McCulloch (R) Strong DEM Hold
    New York Hillary Clinton (D)-inc vs John Spencer (R) Strong DEM Hold
    North Dakota Kent Conrad (DNL)-inc vs Dwight Grotberg (R) Strong DEM Hold
    Ohio Mike DeWine (R)-inc vs Sherrod Brown (D) Mod DEM Gain
    Pennsylvania Rick Santorum (R)-inc vs Bob Casey, Jr. (D) Mod DEM Gain
    Rhode Island L. Chafee (R)-inc vs S. Whitehouse (D) Weak DEM Gain
    Tennessee OPEN: Bob Corker (R) vs Harold Ford, Jr. (D) Weak GOP Hold
    Texas Kay Hutchison (R)-inc vs Barbara Radnofsky (D) Strong GOP Hold
    Utah Orrin Hatch (R)-inc vs Pete Ashdown (D) Strong GOP Hold
    Vermont OPEN: Bernie Sanders (I) vs Richard Tarrant (R) Strong IND Hold
    Virginia George Allen (R)-inc vs James Webb, Jr. (D) Weak DEM Gain
    Washington Maria Cantwell (D)-inc vs Mike McGavick (R) Mod DEM Hold
    West Virginia Robert Byrd (D)-inc vs John Raese (R) Strong DEM Hold
    Wisconsin Herb Kohl (D)-inc vs Robert Lorge (R) Strong DEM Hold
    Wyoming Craig Thomas (R)-inc vs Dale Groutage (D) Strong GOP Hold
    BOLD – party turnover

    Race ratings:

  • “Weak” – less than 5%
  • “Mod” – 5% to 15%
  • “Strong” – greater than 15%
  • For projected margins of victory, click here

    The Real Clear Politics Senate Summary chart is here.

    Likely Dem
    Leans Dem
    Toss Up
    Leans GOP
    Likely GOP
    Arizona Kyl (R)* 49.3% vs. Pederson (D) 40.7% | Chart Kyl +8.6%
    Connecticut Lieberman (I) 49.8% vs. Lamont (D) 38.0% | Chart Lieberman +11.8%
    Maryland Steele (R) 45.0% vs. Cardin (D) 48.7% | Chart Cardin +3.7%
    Michigan Bouchard (R) 37.8% vs. Stabenow (D)* 52.3% | Chart Stabenow +14.5%
    Minnesota Kennedy (R) 37.7% vs. Klobuchar (D) 53.0% | Chart Klobuchar +15.3%
    Missouri Talent (R)* 45.3% vs. McCaskill (D) 48.5% | Chart McCaskill +3.2%
    Montana Burns (R)* 45.5% vs. Tester (D) 48.5% | Chart Tester +3.0%
    New Jersey Kean (R) 41.8% vs. Menendez (D)* 48.2% | Chart Menendez +6.4%
    Ohio DeWine (R)* 43.3% vs. Brown (D) 53.3% | Chart Brown +10.0%
    Pennsylvania Santorum (R)* 40.8% vs. Casey (D) 52.3% | Chart Casey +11.5%
    Rhode Island Chafee (R) 43.3% vs. Whitehouse (D) 48.7% | Chart Whitehouse +5.4%
    Tennessee Corker (R) 51.0% vs. Ford (D) 43.6% | Chart Corker +7.4%
    Virginia Allen (R)* 46.8% vs. Webb (D) 48.3% | Chart Webb +1.5%
    Washington McGavick (R) 40.5% vs. Cantwell (D)* 53.8% | Chart Cantwell +13.3%

    The GOP Senate Debacle has arrived. One race change will make the result transfer to GOP control. Flap feels this most likely will occur in either Rhode Island or Montana.

    Stay tuned for House Projections which ARE even more bruising to the GOP later in the evening.

    For election night coverage NZ Bear at Truth Laid Bear has set up an election tracker page here.

    Previous:

    United States House 2006 Election Watch: Rush Limbaugh and the Coming GOP DEBACLE

    Michael Ramirez on the Coming GOP Debacle

    United States House 2006 Election Watch: SEA OF BLUE

    Election 2006 Watch: The Coming Republican DEBACLE


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    Global War on Terror Watch: Nancy Pelosi – Just Afghanistan?

    Posted Posted in Election 2006, Global War on Terror, Nancy Pelosi, Politics

    gwotnovember5aweb

    LOOK WHERE AL QAEDA & CO. HAVE STRUCK SINCE 9/11

    THE woman who will become Speaker of the House, should Democrats pick up sufficient seats on Tuesday, believes passionately that the War on Terror is only the war in Afghanistan.

    Reality check: The map above shows a selection of the major, memorable terrorist attacks world-wide since Jan. 1, 2002, as well as indicating nations which the Rand Corp. Terrorism Database lists as hosting a significant al Qaeda presence.

    (Just a selection, of course – a map of attacks in Israel or Iraq could fill the whole page.)

    Only Afghanistan? It is staggering to think that anyone of such naivete could soon leading one house of Congress.

    Nancy Pelosi’s defenders will point out that she answering the question, “Do you not think that the war in Iraq now, today, is the War on Terror?”

    But her full answer was, “No. The War on Terror is the war in Afghanistan.”

    Mind-boggling. She doesn’t even deny that terrorists have flocked to Iraq, “but that doesn’t mean we stay there,” she says. “They’ll stay there as long as we’re there” – implying . . . what? That they’ll just retire if we go?

    True, some would leave – but only to do killing elsewhere. How many would come here?

    None of this is to defend every particular of Bush policies in Iraq – would that that were all that divided America’s two political parties.

    But it’s not. No, the overriding divide is that one party generally understands that America faces a determined and utterly ruthless enemy of global reach and ambition, an enemy that will keep on coming and keep on killing until it is stopped . . . and the other party just doesn’t want to think about it.

    Sure, there are exceptions – one honorable one is Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut.

    But he was rejected by his state party because of his firm stance in the War on Terror. He’s not the mainstream of the Democratic Party.

    Nancy Pelosi is.

    The political consensus is the GOP WILL lose majority control of the House. But, will the next Speaker of the House be Nancy Pelosi?

    Flap is not so sure. It depends upon the nature of the majority.

    But, then again, is the GOP in the midst of a “COMEBACK?”

    Stay tuned……


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