• Barack Obama,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll: Romney Leads Obama With Women

    The result comes from the CBS-New York Times Poll about which I posted here.

    Here is a more formal post about Mitt Romney’s poll lead.

    President Obama’s claim that the GOP is mounting a war on women has proven to be a failure. A month into his assault on the Republicans and Mitt Romney, the new CBS-New York Times poll shows that the GOP presidential candidate now leads among women–and men.

    Since April, women have gone from strongly backing Obama to endorsing Romney. In April, Obama held a 49 percent to 43 percent lead among women. That has now flipped to 46 percent backing Romney with 44 percent for Obama, an 8-point switch.

    Ironically, Romney’s support among men has dropped, but he still edges Obama 45 percent to 42 percent.

    And here’s a surprise: Despite the media hyping the so-called war on women, no major outlet today noticed Romney’s new lead with women voters.

    And, I love the Matt Drudge dig…

  • Barack Obama,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll: Romney Takes the Lead over Obama

    President Obama and Mitt Romney

    According to the latest CBS-New York Times national poll.

    Mitt Romney holds a 3 percent lead over President Obama nationally in the latest CBS News-New York Times poll.  Romney took 46 percent in the poll, compared to Obama’s 43 percent. The 3 percent difference is within the poll’s 4 point margin of error.  Obama and Romney were tied at 46 in the same poll conducted last month.

    The president’s endorsement of same-sex marriage has dominated the headlines recently, but the poll found the economy will be the most important issue to voters in the fall. Sixty-two percent said the economy was the most important issue, while the deficit was a distant second at 11 percent. Only 7 percent said same-sex marriage was the most important issue in the election. President Obama’s job approval rating has been hovering around break-even, and is at 48 percent approval and 48 disapproval, according to the poll.  Romney continues to lead Obama among independents, 43 to 36, while Obama leads among moderates, 50 to 39.

    This is a good poll for Mitt Romney and to be so close to Obama with the campaign barely starting demonstrates the President’s vulnerability. This election is ALL about the economy and jobs and Obama’s pivot to gay marriage has to be viewed as a cynical attempt to change the national discourse.

    It hasn’t and it won’t.

    Mitt Romney’s campaign has demonstrated a discipline, unlike McCain’s and will stay like a laser beam trained on the economy.

  • Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama and Romney in a Dead Heat

    A new Presidential poll from Politico has the race between President Obama and Mitt Romney in a virtual dead heat.

    A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll finds a dead heat in the presidential race six months before the election.

    Mitt Romney edged out President Barack Obama 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters, a number well within the margin of error, as Republicans rapidly consolidate behind the likely GOP nominee.

    The former Massachusetts governor has opened up a 10-point lead, 48 percent to 38 percent, among independents in a poll conducted Sunday, April 29 through Thursday, May 3 and a 6-point lead among those who describe themselves as “extremely likely” to vote in November. Obama led Romney by 9 points overall in POLITICO’s February’s poll.

    But there are suggestions that these numbers are extremely fluid: Obama holds double-digit leads over the presumptive Republican nominee on issues such as who will better handle foreign policy and who will stand up for the middle class and on “sharing your values.” But enduring concern about the economy — by far the most important issue to voters — keeps the president in a tenuous position despite employment numbers that show slight but steady improvement.

    Again, like the Gallup Poll previously mentioned a good start for Mitt Romney.

    The entire poll is here.

  • Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Race Close in 12 Swing States

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    In the first USA Today/Gallup swing-state poll conducted since Mitt Romney became the presumptive Republican nominee, Romney and President Barack Obama are nearly tied — 45% vs. 47%, respectively — among registered voters in the 12 battleground states that make up the poll.

    The presumptive Republican nominee is better positioned today than he was in March, when USA Today/Gallup found Obama leading by nine percentage points among swing-state voters. Romney now roughly matches his standing earlier in the year, before he secured the Republican nomination.

    The latest results are from the sixth USA Today/Gallup Swing States poll. Interviewing was conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking April 26-May 2 with 951 registered voters in 12 states where the presidential race is expected to be closely contested: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

    I don’t agree with Gallup’s selection of “swing states” but with that said, Mitt Romney is in a good position now with the campaigns just starting.

    New Mexico, Pennsylvania,and Wisconsin are very likely not in play this November. Here is my assessment for the Electoral College.

    As far as enthusiasm for these candidates, it is a little early to gauge this statistic. With the Supreme Court posing to rule on ObamaCare and Romney’s choice of Vice President soon to come, this measure swill swing, depending upon voter perceptions.

  • Mitt Romney,  President 2012

    President 2012: Super PAC Restore Our Future Ad Buys Reveal States Which Are in Play for Mitt Romney

    Restore Our Future: Saved

    This positive ad has aired before for Mitt Romney but where it is “on air” is quite revealing.

    A pro-Romney super PAC, Restore our Future, is reaching into the memory chest for its first big ad buy of the general election season, running a 30-second spot that recounts how Mitt Romney helped track down the daughter of a business partner in 1996.

    The ad, called “Saved,” will run in nine battleground states, costing the group a total of $4.3 million, the PAC said in a statement. A major force in helping Mr. Romney beat back his Republican challengers, Restore Our Future is now turning to the battle against President Barack Obama with a distinctly positive biographical spot intended to boost Mr. Romney’s personal image by touching on a little-known episode from two decades ago.

    The Romney campaign briefly ran a nearly identical spot in late 2007 in an effort to boost the candidate’s standing before the primary season began. In this election cycle, the super PAC has  run the ads in 16 states around the country during the lead up to primaries in those states.

    The group plans to run the ad in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia.

    No real secret as to what are the key battleground states – just where Mitt Romney will spend the advertising dollars to win them.

    Now, we know.

  • Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Nevada Poll Watch: Obama Surges to an 8 Point Lead

    According to the latest Rasmussen Poll.

    President Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney in a head-to-head matchup in Nevada.

    A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Obama earning 52% support, while Romney picks up 44% of the vote.  Two percent (2%) prefers some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.

    This Nevada survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on April 30, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

    Perhaps the economy is better in Nevada. But, in any case, Mitt Romney had better choose his Vice Presidential running mate with Nevada in mind.

    A key battleground state, Romney needs to win in Nevada.

  • Chris Christie,  Marco Rubio,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012

    President 2012: Romney Might Convince Me to Accept Vice Presidency – Chris Christie

    New Jersey Governor Chris Christie arrives for a March 2012 Town Hall

    Mitt Romney could NOT do worse than Marco Rubio or Chris Christie.

    New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie on Monday said Romney “might be able to convince” him to serve as his No. 2 on the Republican presidential ticket.

    “He might be able to convince me. He’s a convincing guy, but I really love this job. I really want to stay in this job” Christie said during a high school visit in Plainsboro Township, New Jersey.

    The popular Republican governor and early Romney backer said he is not interested in serving as vice president, but that he would be open to discussing the position with Romney.

    “I really have no interest in being vice president, but if Governor Romney calls and asks me to sit down and talk to him about it, I’d listen because I think you owe the nominee of your party that level of respect and who knows what he’s going to say,” Christie said. “We’ll wait and see.”

    I predicted four years ago that John McCain would pick little known Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. This time I think Mitt Romney will choose ……..

    Marco Rubio.

  • Mitt Romney,  President 2012,  Rudy Giuliani

    President 2012: Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani Team Up on Bin Laden Anniversary Date

    Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani during 2008 Presidential race

    Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is proving again he is a good Republican party man.

    Rudy Giuliani will appear at an event with Mitt Romney on Tuesday to mark the anniversary of the assault on Osama bin Laden, a campaign aide confirmed to CNN.

    The death of the former al Qaeda leader is currently a political talking point between the campaigns of the former Massachusetts governor and President Barack Obama, with both sides attempting to capitalize on the one-year anniversary.

    There is NO love lost between these two. But, Rudy is always the loyal Republican and will likely do whatever he is asked to elect Mitt Romney.

    And, I do not exepect Romney to ask Rudy to be any part of his administration.

    I don’ think Rudy particularly cares.

  • Barack Obama,  Larry Sabato,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012

    President 2012: Larry Sabato Lays Out the Electoral College Battle for the White House

    From Sabato’s Crystal Ball

    Larry Sabato lays out the Electoral College analysis for the race for the Presidency in 2012.

    The London Olympics isn’t the only venue for world-class sport this year. Political gold is waiting to be won in November, and the only way to grab the top U.S.A. medal is to master Electoral College math. It is both deceptively easy and maddeningly complex. A candidate has to accumulate 270 votes in a tiny universe of 538, but those 538 will be generated by 130 million votes cast in 51 separate entities. A game that looks like checkers is really multi-dimensional chess.

    Still, the deep polarization of party politics has simplified the process somewhat. Remarkably, about 40 states — and maybe more — have almost no chance of flipping from one party to the other in the 2012 Electoral College. If President Obama gets his way, the electoral map will look very close to the way it did four years ago; on the other hand, Mitt Romney needs to flip a relative handful of states to take up residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

    Obama’s 2008 performance was close to the high-water mark for a modern Democrat: 365 electoral votes (359 under the new 2010 census apportionment). Obama did the seemingly impossible by very narrowly pulling two long-time Republican states, Indiana and North Carolina, to his column and even winning an electoral vote in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, while narrowly losing Missouri and Montana. Those latter two states are widely believed to have moved out of his reach for 2012.

    It is a little-known Electoral College tidbit that a president reelected to a second term has always added a state to his coalition that he did not win during his first successful run. Sometimes, in the early days of the Republic, it was a state that didn’t exist during a president’s first bid. But it appears that Obama, if reelected, will break this trend. The only state John McCain won that Obama appears to have a chance of flipping is Arizona, but that is a long shot that would require a massive turnout effort by the Obama campaign among Hispanic voters.

    To compare 2012 politics to war for a moment, the current electoral map is akin to World War I’s Western Front trench warfare: Massive amounts of manpower and resources will be needed to move the frontlines even a smidgen. And the less the lines move, the better it is for Obama.

    Read all of the post, which is in line with my previous analysis. Watch the video embedded below:

    It looks to me that the battle will be waged in even fewer states – Ohio, Virginia, Nevada and Florida. Voters in those states should feel the brunt of all of the intense ad campaigns.

    In any case, here is my prediction of how the Electoral College will turn out in November: Romney 275 Vs. Obama 263:

    This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com

  • Barack Obama,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012: State of the Race for the Presidency: April 25, 2012

    From Real Clear Politics

    With Mitt Romney locking up the Republican nomination last night, it is time to look at the general election face off between him and President Obama. The Real Clear Politics poll average has Obama up by 4.1 points.

    Now, let’s look at the Electoral College vote averages (Real Clear Politics):

    Here we have the state of the race: President Obama is up by a few points and there are a number of key battleground states which will determine who wins in November.

    Here is my prediction:

    This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com

    Let the campaigns begin…..