• CA-26,  Julia Brownley,  Tony Strickland

    CA-26: How Julia Brownley Defeated Tony Strickland


    I hear that Tony Strickland is being mentioned as running for California State Party chairman.

    UTimm Herdt has an analysis over at the Ventura County Star and some city by city results base on the unofficial results of votes that have been counted.

    The key to winning in any political campaign is for a candidate to maximize his or her base of support while holding down the other in his base. The 26th Congressional District was no exception. An analysis of city-by-city vote results from Tuesday shows that Democrat Julia Brownley did the best job of accomplishing that objective — which is why she defeated Republican Tony Strickland.

    (A complete city-by-city breakdown is at the end of this post.)

    Brownley really ran up the score in Oxnard, winning that city 66 percent to 34 percent in the final unofficial vote count. That 32-point difference was four points better than the city’s Democratic voter registration advantage of 28 percent, meaning that Brownley solidly held the city’s Democratic base and won a sizeable majority of independents.

    Oxnard voters provided Brownley with her entire margin of victory and then some. She carried Oxnard by 12,360 votes; she won districtwide by 7,099.

    I will reserve a more complete analysis until final numbers are released by December 7. But, I think Strickland’s losing campaign mirrors that of his mentor Mitt Romney’s losing Presidential one.

    There are some basic flaws which the Republican Party will have to correct if they wish to win competitive races.

    In a nutshell they are:

    • Candidate selection/recruitment
    • Women
    • Hispanics/Immigration

    While Strickland may have lost a close race, he is not through politically and with better electoral conditions, I foresee him making a comeback either in the California State Senate or in a re-match in CA-26.

  • CA-26,  Julia Brownley,  Tony Strickland

    CA-26: Julia Brownley Ahead of Tony Strickland in Congressional Race

    California Congressional District 26 resultsResults Graphic from Around the Capitol

    But, this race is NOT over since there are a good number of mail-in ballots that were delivered either on election day or via mail a few days prior. There might be up to 20 per cent of the total ballots cast that have not been counted (40K).

    But, Tony Strickland has a steep margin to overcome. It is possible though.

    Ventura and Los Angeles Counties must certify their results by December 7.

    Stay tuned and if there is any movement in the race, I will be sure to post it up.

  • CA-26,  Julia Brownley

    CA-26: Julia Brownley Ups Staff Pay While California Budget Deficit Soars

    Julia Brownley Grants Staff Pay Raises

    Fiscal responsibility from Julia Brownley? And, she wants to be MY Congresswoman?


    Let’s see “Out of Townley Julia Brownley” voted for High-Speed Rail and supports Jerry Brown’s tax increase Proposition 30.

    Same ol’ tax and spend liberal politics from LA – that is Julia Brownley.

    Vote for Republican Tony Strickland on November the 6th.

    Here is the video:


  • CA-26,  Fran Pavley,  Julia Brownley,  Todd Zink,  Tony Strickland

    CA-26: Early Vote By Mail Report Favoring GOP’s Tony Strickland

    Vote by Mail Report for October 22, 2012Chart Graphic By PoliticalDataInc

    Scott Lay over at The Nooner mentioned Paul Mitchell’s report.

    The report particularly references CA-26 and SD-27 where Republicans Tony Strickland and Todd Zink are in tightly contested races in districts with competitive (nearly equal) party registrations.

    In Ventura County’s two heavily contested races, Republicans ARE turning out to vote by mail. And, turning out like they voted historically in the past two of the three elections.

    In CA-26 (Ventura County based Congressional Election) with Tony Strickland vs. Julia Brownley, Republican voters are at a +4% partisan turnout.

    In SD-27 (California State Senate which may determine whether Democrats win a 2/3’rds majority of the Senate) with Todd Zink vs. Fran Pavley, Republican voters are at a +4% partisan turnout.

    Even, if you consider the other modeling reports, the GOP is plus – at least here in Ventura County.

    Could this mean, greater enthusiasm?

    I think so, as my local friends and colleagues have expressed an increased desire in casual conversation to vote this election. At least, it means Republicans are not discouraged and are turning out to vote, like they have in the past.

    Good news for the Ventura County Republican Party – so far!

  • CA-26,  Julia Brownley,  Tony Strickland

    CA-26: Stalking Continues To Plague Tony Strickland

    Congressional candidate Tony Strickland

    California State Senator and CA-26 Congressional candidate Tony Strickland

    Photo from Facebook

    Republican Congressional candidate Tony Strickland continues to be plagued by either the Democratic Party, Democratic candidate Julia Brownley’s campaign or a SuperPAC aligned with Julia Brownley and the Democratic Party.

    You remember the FLAP from before.

    Well, it continued this Sunday at a campaign event: Celebracion de la Hispanidad

    Here are some photos that were sent to me (note the children playing at the event):

    Tony Strickland Stalker

    Tony Strickland event stalkerAnybody know who this fellow is?

    The police went out and had a few words to say with this guy.

    Tony Strickland event stalkerThis photo stalking has been a recurring issue for the Stricklands and Tony’s Congressional campaign.

    I mean, this really is NOT how we run campaigns in Ventura County – stalking candidates like Paparazzi and intimidating them. You remember the female who was virtually tripping over Tony earlier this summer?

    Strickland Stalker Updated and Confirmed: CA 26: Who is Stalking Tony Strickland?

    With three weeks before the election, does the opposition campaign really need the footage for ads. No, it looks just like harassment and intimidation to me.

    Democrat Julia Brownley should call off the dogs….

  • CA-26,  Julia Brownley,  Tony Strickland

    CA-26: Tony Strickland and Julia Brownley to Debate Next Tuesday

    Julia Brownley and Tony Strickland

    CA-26 Congressional candidates Democrat Julia Brownley and Republican Tony Strickland

    This won’t be the first time the two Congressional candidates have faced off against each other at California Lutheran University (CLU). But, here are the details for next Tuesday’s debate which, unlike the forum in May, is one on one.

    The forum will be from 7-9 p.m. at the Lundring Events Center in the Gilbert Sports and Fitness Center at the Thousand Oaks campus. About 200 preticketed audience members will be admitted, and the event will be broadcast live on radio station KCLU. C-SPAN will televise the forum, but a network official said no decision has been made on whether to show it live.

    The forum is co-sponsored by CLU, The Star and Pacific Coast Business Times.

    If you would like a preview of the debate, here is a video when Strickland and Brownley faced off in May, also at CLU.


  • CA-26,  Julia Brownley

    CA-26: Julia Brownley Is Running Us Off the Tracks

    Julia Brownley Running Us Off the Tracks

    The National Republican Congressional Committee is up with a new web ad (I don’t know if it will run on Ventura County cable television) attacking Democrat Julia Brownley for her votes raising taxes and for the costly California High Speed Rail Project.

    The ad is mocking and quite fun, but drives home the point that California Assemblywoman Julia Brownley is a tax and spend liberal who will raise YOUR taxes to fund wasteful government spending – like the Jerry Brown promoted California High Speed Train to nowhere.

    Here is the ad:


  • CA-26,  Julia Brownley,  Tony Strickland

    CA-26: “Out of Townley” Julia Brownley Files Specious Complaint with FEC

    California Assemblywoman Julia Brownley speaking

    California Assemblywoman Julia Brownley and Democratic Congressional candidate in CA-26

    Timm Herdt over at the Ventura County Star has the FLAP – and what a specious and idiotic one it is.

    Because separate $2,500 contributions from two New York bankers to Republican congressional candidate Tony Strickland apparently were initially declined by the bankers’ credit card companies, a dispute has arisen over their legality, leading Democrat Julia Brownley on Thursday to file a formal complaint with the Federal Elections Commission.

    Brownley says the donations exceed allowable limits because contributions from Matt Doheny and David Hilty, executives with New York investment firms, were reported as received by Strickland on June 28, after California’s June 5 primary. That election whittled the field in the new 26th Congressional District to Strickland and Brownley.

    How ridiculous with the California economy in the dumper, high unemployment and significant issues to be decided in foreign policy, health care and defense, OUT OF TOWNLEY Julia Brownley has staffers pouring over minutia in campaign finance reports.

    I guess the OUT OF TOWNER and I say that since the California Assemblywoman Brownley moved from her Los Angeles County home in Santa Monica to Oak Park which is in the Congressional District 26 when she filed for election, has nothing better to do with her time but bitch and moan.

    How about some issue discussion, Julia?

    I mean better than your attack ads on television that try to paint California State Senator Tony Strickland as a “hater” of women.

    It is specious and ludicrous complaints like this that dissuade people from the political process. People are tired of the BS.

    Thanks to the commenter at the Ventura County Star with the moniker: “OUT OF TOWNLEY BROWNLEY.”

    I am voting for a full-time Ventura County resident for Congress = Tony Strickland.

  • CA-26,  John Burton,  Julia Brownley

    CA-26: Does Julia Brownley Repudiate California Democratic State Chairman John Burton?

    California Democratic Chairman John Burton

    You know the flap. The old, crusty State Chairman of the California Democratic Party John Burton called Paul Ryan and the GOP some sort of Nazi propagandist liars.

    The Chairman of the California Democratic Party already had political pundits, delegates and rivals buzzing a day before the Democratic National Convention formally opened in Charlotte, North Carolina, after telling KCBS Radio exclusively that Republican tactics had been akin to Nazi propaganda.

    “They lie and they don’t care if people think they lie,” Chairman of the California Democratic Party John Burton told KCBS Monday in Charlotte. “As long as you lie, Joseph Goebbels, the big lie, you keep repeating it, you know.”

    “First of all,” he continued, “you’ve got Republicans who truly believe the Earth is flat, so I don’t know exactly what, you know, what’s going to do, but they, I think that when people figure out that these people say they do not care about the truth and they will lie and they don’t care if they lie because it doesn’t matter if they lie.”

    “I mean, that’s very cynical, very dangerous,” Burton said.

    The Goebbels reference, in particular, drew quick response and rebuke from Republicans, and Burton was reminded that Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown once had to apologize after comparing GOP challenger Meg Whitman to Goebbels during an interview, also with KCBS.

    “How’d he get in trouble? Wait, s–t, that’s right, she won the election,” he said, tongue in cheek. “He won it big, god damn he was in trouble. What are you talking about?”

    “That was Goebbels, a big lie, they said they don’t care about facts. They’re going to lie so, I mean, that’s not pejorative to them, they probably wear it as a compliment,” he continued.

    KCBS then asked Burton whether Democrats were ever guilty of embellishing or taking things out of context.

    “Embellishing and lying are two different things,” Burton responded. “You tell me, anybody running for office, except me when I ran, who didn’t embellish. Okay?

    But, this isn’t the first time that well-known profane John Burton has been so outlandish. Look at the list.

    I wonder if NEW Oak Park and California Congressional District 26 resident, Julia Brownley wants to repudiate her Democratic State Chairman? Or, whether she agrees with Burton?

    Just askin…..?

    By the way, Burton has apologized for his tirade and left the North Carolina DNC for a root canal procedure in California. He is not expected to return to the convention.

    Here is the video story:


  • CA-26,  Julia Brownley,  Tony Strickland

    CA-26: Julia Brownley Begins Television Ads

    Screencap of Julia Brownley ad

    I noticed the ad first this morning on Chuck Todd’s political show on MSNBC. And, it has since repeated.

    The ad looks much like the generic, “get to know who I am ad”, which highlights that she is supported by public employee unions and abortion providers – pretty typical stuff for California Democrats.

    The video has not been posted up on You Tube yet, but I suppose the campaign is just behind. I will post it in an update, when it arrives.

    The ad buy was fairly modest and there were two:

    • August 29 – September 6: 229 spots for about $10K
    • September 7 – September 11: 84 spots for a little over 4K

    You can check out the ad buys for yourself, since they are public. Here is the link to Time Warner Cable which has the vast majority of the Cable TV action here in Ventura County.

    Brownley’s opponent, Republican California State Senator Tony Strickland is already up with television advertising, having beat Brownley “on air.”