The but is that it depends upon what President Obama does in the next few months. The headline from CNN is incorrect, since Rudy does not doubt Palin can beat Obama – it just depends. For example, if the stock market were to crash and there are massive layoffs, I could see the public blaming the President.

Is this scenario likely? 

Probably not.

With the President surging in the polls and with the GOP better positioned in the Congress, there will be no sense of urgency for American voters to throw out the incumbent President. Sarah Palin is very young for a Presidential candidate and there is no urgency for her to run and then lose in the general election.

It is probably better to say at this point that it may be doubtful for ANY Republican nominee to beat Obama, including Sarah Palin.

I have always maintained that Sarah Palin could beat Mitt Romney in a GOP Presidential primary race, but why bother if your chances of beating Obama are diminished because of the incumbency factor and racial politics.

Better for Sarah to keep her powder dry for a run in 2016 or later. She has plenty of time.

Now, this is interesting and I have not heard from any of Rudy’s 2008 campaign people about a Presidential race by the Mayor. But, maybe he is lying low, unlike the last time.

On Monday’s hour-long “Piers Morgan Tonight” interview, Rudy Giuliani tells Piers Morgan he’s more likely to run if Sarah Palin runs in 2012. “The more Republicans in which I can show a contrast…the better chance that I have,” he said, describing himself as a moderate.

But if he does run, Giuliani says he would concentrate on winning Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, sites of the first presidential nominating contests. In 2008 Giuliani focused his resources in Florida, a strategy that that led to the demise of his run after he finished third in the state’s primary.

However, the former U.S. Attorney said he doesn’t see a frontrunner in the Republican field, which makes for “a fluid situation.”

“There is no obvious frontrunner right now,” Giuliani said. “I guess everybody is happy with that, because nobody wants to be the frontrunner at this point because it always seems the frontrunner gets all the attention, all of the negative publicity.”

Well, the Mayor in a three way race with Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin would split the regional GOP alliances. There are many GOP delegates in the Far West and Northeast that would support Rudy over Romney (as the anti-Palin) and Palin.

One of the main criticisms of Sarah Palin is her lack of executive experience and Rudy certainly has that experience – as New York City Mayor and U.S. Attorney.

But, could Rudy win the GOP nomination?

Probably not unless Sarah Palin imploded. But a Rudy candidacy would certainly freeze out Mitt Romney. Two moderates Vs. Palin = a Palin nomination.

There is little doubt that Giuliani COULD beat Barack Obama with a center-right coalition that would challenge the President in more battleground states – like Colorado, Washington, Nevada and Virginia.

But, Rudy will not be running unless it is as a stalking horse and foil for Palin.

Rudy would make a terrific Vice Presidential nominee with Sarah or as U.S. Attorney General under ANY GOP Administration.

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin (L) joins former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani (R) and his wife Judith Nathan as they attend the New York Yankees MLB American League baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium in New York, June 7, 2009

The Mayor picks up around 3:00 of the video and discusses mental illness as the cause of the Jared Loughner Tucson shootings and at 8:30 defends Sarah Palin.

Giuliani said during a “Face the Nation” interview on CBS that her use of that term was off the mark — but the former New York City mayor also defended Palin.

He called her response to the blame “one of someone accused” unjustifiably, adding “facts and circumstances” uncovered thus far show alleged shooter Jared Loughner was not motivated by an politician or ideology. Rather, his apparent unstable mental condition is to blame, Giuliani said.

“This had nothing to do with left or right,” Giuliani said. “Or a map.”

The transcript of the Giuliani interview is here (PDF file).

I think the Mayor makes the correct analysis, defends his colleagues and develops a sensible plan for the future. A problem solver, Giuliani remains one of America’s best.

Is there now any doubt that Sarah Palin will roll the dice and run for President in 2012?

Sarah Palin says she is seriously considering a run for the White House, and she believes she could beat President Obama in 2012, the former Alaska governor told ABC News’ Barbara Walters.

“I’m looking at the lay of the land now, and … trying to figure that out, if it’s a good thing for the country, for the discourse, for my family, if it’s a good thing,” Palin said in an interview scheduled to air in full Dec. 9 on ABC as part of Walters’ “10 Most Fascinating People” of 2010.

Asked Walters: “If you ran for president, could you beat Barack Obama?”

“I believe so,” Palin said.

Also, today there is this somewhat favorable profile of Team Sarah in the New York Times, no less

As I said before, Sarah will keep her powder dry, prepare to run and run if President Obama’s poll numbers continue in the tank in key battleground Midwest states.

I doubt she will have little trouble defeating Mitt Romney in Iowa, South Carolina and Florida in any contested GOP primary elections. Mitt Romney would likely win New Hampshire but with Rudy Giuliani at her side should be able to sweep the Northeast GOP primaries and California – if the GOP contest continues that late.

What does Sarah Palin have to lose, really?

Barack Obama or any incumbent President will be difficult at best to beat. Expectations to beat Obama will be low.

If Palin runs and loses the GOP nomination, she can write more books and make a comeback ala Nixon and Reagan in later years. If she loses to Obama, she will be the front runner for the 2016 Presidential race where there will be no incumbent.

I say Sarah Palin runs.

Sounds like Mitt Romney’s political operatives to me.

Top Republicans in Washington and in the national GOP establishment say the 2010 campaign highlighted an urgent task that they will begin in earnest as soon as the elections are over: Stop Sarah Palin.

Interviews with advisers to the main 2012 presidential contenders and with other veteran Republican operatives make clear they see themselves on a common, if uncoordinated, mission of halting the momentum and credibility Palin gained with conservative activists by plunging so aggressively into this year’s midterm campaigns.

Former New York Mayor and GOP Presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani has the best advice for the GOP.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, meanwhile, made the point that Palin’s anti-establishment credibility is only helped when Republican operatives air their concerns anonymously to the consummate insider publication.

“I worked for Ronald Reagan, you know the 11th Commandment was don’t criticize another Republican,” he said during an appearance on “Fox and Friends” on Monday. “Let’s not start this presidential race before this election is over and let’s not go through the negativity we went through in the last one where Republicans attacked the heck out of each other. We have got a bigger mission here. Sarah Palin has every right to make her case to the Republican Party. How about we let the Republicans decide — not the so-called leaders — whether she is qualified or not?”

“I think they are missing the whole point of what is going on in our electorate right now because that is the worst possible way to take that kind of a lesson out of this election,” Giuliani added. “I think this time we have to have a Republican National Committee that disciplines Republicans who attack other Republicans. I see it starting already and it really disturbs me.”

And, I agree. Let the Republican primary elections take care of themselves.

Republican political operatives should obey Reagan’s 11th commandment and come out of the shadows, if they have the intestinal fortitude.