Flap's Blog – FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

The U.S. unemployment rate, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 9.0% in mid-February, up from 8.6% for January. The mid-month reading normally reflects what the U.S. government reports for the entire month, and is up from 8.3% in mid-January.

Gallup’s mid-month unemployment reading, based on the 30 days ending Feb. 15, serves as a preliminary estimate of the U.S. government report, and suggests the Bureau of Labor Statistics will likely report on the first Friday of March that its seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased in February. Gallup found that unemployment decreased to 8.3% in its mid-January report, and suggested that the U.S. unemployment rate the BLS reported for January would decline.

Gallup also finds 10.0% of U.S. employees in mid-February are working part time but want full-time work, essentially the same as in January. The mid-February reading means the percentage of Americans who can only find part-time work remains close to its high since Gallup began measuring employment status in January 2010.

Although the past few weeks, the pundits have been spinning that the economy has been improving. America is not out of the woods just yet as far as unemployment.

And, underemployment has increased. Remember underemployment is a measure that combines the percentage of workers who are unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work.

U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased slightly to 8.6% in January from 8.5% in December, but was down from 9.9% in January a year ago.

And underemployment surged:

Underemployment, a measure that combines the percentage of workers who are unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work, surged to 18.7% in January. This is a worsening from the 18.3% of December but is still below the 19.0% of a year ago

Well, there has been a deterioration and not any dramatic improvement since the first of the year.

What does this mean?

No bragging rights for the Obama Administration that the economy,including unemployment is making a dramatic recovery, but no doom and gloom about accelerating unemployment either.

Stay tuned as the government will release probably improving numbers tomorrow.

Job creation remained weak in the U.S. during November, with just 120,000 new positions created, though the unemployment rate slid to 8.6 percent, a government report showed Friday.

The rate fell from the previous month’s 9.0 percent, a move which in part reflected a drop in those looking for jobs. The participation rate dropped to 64 percent, from 64.2 percent in October, representing 315,000 fewer job-seekers.

The actual employment level increased by 278,000. The total amount of those without a job fell to 13.3 million.

The drop in participation rate is significant in that had the labor force remained steady, the jobless rate would have dropped to 8.8 percent, according to Citigroup calculations. If the labor force had followed trend growth, unemployment would be at 8.9 percent.

“Overall, the continued modest employment gains reflect an economy that plods along at an uninspiring pace,” Kathy Bostjancic, director of macroeconomic analysis at The Conference Board, said in a statement. “These modest job gains are still not enough to propel economic growth to a sustainable 2 percent-plus growth path.”

And, some pundits this morning are even questioning the 120,000 jobs created.

The economy remains mired in a stagnant employment mode with over 13 million Americans unemployed.

Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 8.5% in mid-November — up from 8.3% in mid-October, but down significantly from 9.2% in mid-November 2010. Gallup’s mid-month unemployment measure suggests the government is likely to report no change in its seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for November 2011.

An additional 9.7% of U.S. employees work part time but want full-time work, up from 9.2% in mid-October. The current reading is significantly higher than the 8.5% of mid-November 2010.

And, underemployment has increased.

The chart:

Underemployment is a measure that combines the percentage of workers who are unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work.

So, what does this all mean?

It appears that the unemployment rate is modestly improving because Americans are more accepting of part-time work. But, as Gallup says: a part-time job is better than NO job but there is no real sign that American unemployment is improving.

How will this impact the upcoming 2012 elections?

In most recent elections, an unemployment rate above 8% is a danger sign for a Presidential re-election.

Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is at 8.4% at the end of October, down from 8.7% in September and 9.2% in August. Unemployment was at 8.3% in mid-October — its lowest level since Gallup began continuous monitoring in January 2010. Gallup’s unemployment measure is also now much lower compared with a year ago — it stood at 9.4% at the end of October 2010.

Underemployment is also down.

Underemployment, a measure that combines the percentage of workers who are unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work, is 17.8% at the end of October — down from 18.3% at the end of September.

The chart:

The government’s report is due out tomorrow and will be based on data from mid-october.

The government’s seasonally adjusted October unemployment report, to be released Friday, will be based on data collected during mid-October, around the time Gallup released its mid-month findings. At that time, Gallup suggested that the government would report a drop in the U.S. unemployment rate for October. The continued improvement Gallup has found in the job situation since mid-month reinforces this idea. Gallup modeling suggests the government’s unemployment rate could fall below 9.0% for October.

Gallup’s October data are consistent with Wednesday’s Challenger, Gray, & Christmas report showing that planned layoffs in October were at their lowest level since June. The decline Gallup finds in unemployment also aligns with the 2.5% increase in U.S. GDP for the third quarter and the Federal Reserve’s statement on Wednesday suggesting the economy is strengthening modestly. Additionally, Gallup Daily tracking shows economic confidence, consumer spending, and job creation improving in October.

But, the changes may be based on seasonal factors which the government uses in calculating its figures.

Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 8.3% in mid-October — down sharply from 8.7% at the end of September and 9.2% at the end of August. A year ago, Gallup’s U.S. unemployment rate stood at 10.0%. While seasonal hiring patterns may explain some of this improvement, the drop suggests the government could report an October unemployment rate of less than 9.0%.

And, underemployment is down sharply.

Underemployment, a measure that combines the percentage of workers who are unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work, is thus at 17.5% in mid-October, down sharply from 18.3% at the end of September — and its lowest measurement of the year.

The Chart.