Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry,  Sarah Palin

President 2012 GOP New Hampshire Poll Watch: Romney 25% Bachmann 18% Palin 11% Paul 9% Perry 7% Cain 6%

July 6, 2011 /

According to the latest PPP Poll.

When PPP polled New Hampshire in April Michele Bachmann was stuck at 4%. She’s gained 14 points over the last three months and now finds herself within single digits of Mitt Romney. Romney continues to lead the way in the state with 25% to 18% for Bachmann, 11% for Sarah Palin, 9% for Ron Paul, 7% for Rick Perry and Herman Cain, 6% for Jon Huntsman and Tim Pawlenty, and 4% for Newt Gingrich.

Bachmann’s surge in New Hampshire is being built on the back of the Tea Party. Among voters identifying themselves as members of that movement she’s leading the way at 25% with Palin and Romney tying for second at 16%, and Cain also placing in double digits at 11%. Only 33% of Republican primary voters in the state identify themselves as Tea Partiers though and with the remaining folks Romney’s way ahead with 33% to 13% for Bachmann, and 10% for Huntsman and Paul.

Romney’s starting to show some signs of weakness in New Hampshire. His support is down 12 points from 37% on the iteration of our April poll that didn’t include Mike Huckabee or Donald Trump. His favorability numbers are headed in the wrong direction as well. He’s dropped a net 18 points from +49 at 68/19 to +31 at 60/29. He’s certainly still the front runner in the state but he’s not looking as inevitable as he did a few months ago.

Sorry I am a little late to this poll, but I have been traveling and now blogging from Indianapolis. Indiana.

This is quite a chance in circumstances for Mitt Romney. He has decided early on not to compete in the first in the nation caucus in Iowa, certain in his own mind to win the first in the nation primary election in New Hampshire. However, Michele Bachmann has thrown a monkey wrench into this plan.

Now, it is uncertain as to what will happen when Texas Governor Rick Perry officially enters the race and then if Sarah Palin gets in after Perry enters.

Exit question: Is Romney a safe bet to win New Hampshire by a large enough margin to show momentum going into South Carolina and Florida?

We shall see.

New Hampshire may become Romney’s one and only early win and fade thereafter.

2 Comments

  • Anonymous

    July 7, 2011 at 3:36 am

    No chance. New Hampshire is not the conservative bellwether it used to be, thanks to the tax exiles from Massachusetts pretty much having taken over the border towns the past 30 years. Barry Goldwater would lose to George Romney if they could be pitted against each other now; Bill Loeb would have gone bankrupt with this demographic. It now is tailor-made for Romney if any group ever could have been – yet two out-of-state conservative women (for years Bay State pols have been considered favorite sons in neighboring New Hampshire) together out-poll Romney? 

    This is a sign of voter dissatisfaction writ large. Mr. Romney isn’t helping his cause by trying to create yet another new persona. It’s still very early, too early to be predicting results with any degree of certainty…but I’ve seen New Hampshire break the hearts of a lot of presidential hopefuls.